VIC What is Melbourne going to do (and when) and where is it in the cycle?

I would like to invest in Melbourne at some point.
It seems at the moment that rents are very low compared to purchase price. I think the yield might even be lower than Sydney?

Melbourne has done fairly well recently (I think). I.e. The median is a pretty strong price.
Feel free to correct me on any of the assumptions above.

From reading on the forum and talking to people and reading between the lines it looks like Melbourne is going to drop as rates rise - but probably not by as much as Sydney. When do people think it will be bottoming out?

Who has a good handle on the Melbourne market and where do people think that it's going to go and when will be the best time to buy?

Not interested in responses that say "anytime is the good time to buy and never try to time the market" yeah I get all that and I understand why some say that, but I'm actually looking for some timing information.

What are people's forecasts?

 

Well we are already seeing auction pass ins in Sydney but I doubt it's the bottom yet I think the full is only just starting.

 

Hi, would you mind sharing where you have been able to source your data on auctions which have been passed in?
Thanks in advance.

 

Depends where in Melbourne you're looking to buy.

 

https://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/surrey-hills-3127-vic

https://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/camberwell-3124-vic

Most inner east suburbs only 10pct above 2017 prices. Hardly the mother of all booms. Looking attractive next to sydney comparable.

 

Thanks, very useful information and much appreciated.

 

I think many areas in Melbourne are undervalued in comparison to Sydney. Many areas didn't grow by much at all, as you mentioned. There's a lot of media noise obfuscating around the granular details of Melbourne's many markets.

 

Yup. And some lower than 2017.
https://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/box-hill-3128-vic

 

What's the logic behind this? Is it because if lot's of properties are getting passed in you can get a bargain?

 

Dont imagine harbour town is buzzing, even post pandemic. White elephant.

 

A lot of people say "don't try and time the market" it's how long you've been in it

Personally my motto is both of them simultaneously. I try and time and spend time in it

 

Brutal. A huge lesson from this is how hard sentiment can shift. $700k in 2013 could have bought a house worth $1.5M today.

I'm not game enough to try to forecast sentiment, but it fascinates me to think what products over the next decade may become more desirable and beat market growth. My gut feel says larger apartments (3 bed+) that can cater for families will do very well, i.e. a 2-speed apartment market with the smaller ones only increasing based on CPI and rent return. But with family homes now priced so far above their historical values, I see well-located alternatives for families hotting up.

 

Not sure about 3 bedder apartments, as most people would use the money to buy townhouses or unit/villas in the suburbs. Unless the buyer wants to live in CBD or very specific premium suburbs.