World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

SPY = S&P500 US Index

XJO = ASX200 Index

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

thankyou

 

Ok now I'm starting to get excited.....why? Take a look at what happened in the world markets in yesterday's trade! Pile up your cash and prepare yourself with a plan, opportunities are coming

Posted the above 7th September, we are now seeing the forecasts all play out as expected.

SPY, DAXX and FTSE were all obliterated in yesterday's trade with savage falls.

SPY has confirmed the beautifully symmetrical wave 1 = 5 scenario (see the previous post). Yesterday's fall wiped out all the gains since July. The really interesting thing is that SPY is revisiting inside the red arcs. If we see a monthly close lower than these arcs it's a sign of bigger trouble ahead. As I have said in other posts these arcs represent end of a growth phase meaning a significant pullback or reversal is likely - this already happened once earlier this year (see forecast from original post then subsequent violent reversal right at the red arc in January this year - see end of wave 3 in chart below).

SPY


Mentioned this in previous posts - If SPY gets back inside the red arcs, it will likely go to 2,500 area as a minimum and this will be first major support.

XJO has been consistently falling the last couple of weeks and is narrowing the displacement gap with Copper.

XJO


XJO


XJO has reached some support now (see above) but the pattern says there will be further down to come yet. Next support area is 5,680 - 5,750 zone.

No advice

 

Market conditions are getting more exciting by the day

XJO down leg forecast (see previous posts) has played out perfectly and is now getting close to first support mentioned in post above 5,680/5,750. Most likely will see a bounce from this zone then another collapse that will probably drive the market down through this support. Bearish conditions in XJO (and SPY) are likely to continue on for many months yet.

XJO is obeying harmonic 25% division lines to near perfection - see blue arrows.

XJO


DAXX is approaching an important zone in both price and time.

Here is the chart from my original post in this thread that forecast the collapse we have seen since the start of this year.

DAXX (from original post in this thread)


As you can see from the updated chart below, an ABC correction is now well underway and in fact much more developed than SPY or XJO so the DAXX market phase is currently leading most other world indices and may bottom out first or it may be that the DAXX correction simply lasts longer and it falls back in line with the others. It is just reaching the start of the time zone now for the end of a typical simple correction (ABC zig-zag). This time zone extends from now until April 2019 and likely support levels are marked on the chart, approx. 11,100 and 10,500

DAXX (now)


No Advice

 

thanks Alex for kindly sharing these updates again... how much below 5,680/5,750 are you seeing XJO collapsing after the bounce ?

 

If you thought market conditions were exciting before, what did you make of today?

The XJO closed at 5,664, which is slightly below the support point of 5,680. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. A bounce or more sell offs driving the index down further?

 

@Perthguy We are due for a brief rally now, back to 5,940/6,020 area for XJO

Then if my pattern work is valid, seven degrees of hell erupts next......

And that to me will be extremely exciting, even more so than now! This kind of opportunity does NOT come often. As many of you know, I have been very focussed on forecasting this major downturn for a long time now and the market has followed the expectations quite well.

As always the bear market will be very cruel to those who lack understanding. Many will get hurt and sell and/or quit in disgust. Others will feel so mentally anguished by the falls in value they adopt the false belief 'it's all different this time, and equities are in danger of going to zero value' and dump assets right in their weakest period, others will be overleveraged or need capital and get forced out. Part of what will contribute to this is interest rate rises and overleverage property investors who never did their 2% sensitivity analysis on cash flows before they purchased.

When the final low of this downturn comes (and it could be a long way off yet), as with the GFC most people will be too psyched out or unable for various reasons to take advantage of it and will miss the very best remaining equities opportunity this century. Don't be one of them.

Even some folks who think they are mentally prepared now will have serious doubt in the 11th hour and end up missing out...... because that is how it works

Have a plan, adopt good habits, learn, and stay the course.....but most of all accumulate at sharp prices.

No advice

 

XAO harmonic support @ 5,720 caught last weeks low to perfection (actual low last week 5,721.6)

XAO

 

Love it! Agree 100% with the later paragraphs, even those with a plan will be tested mentally. As Tyson says everyone has a plan until your punched in the face.

I in all honesty have yet to experience major corrections in markets, I've been alive long enough to have lived through afew but have taken no interest in investing or had any skin in the game for that matter. During the gfc I was in my late teens/early twenties. I'd hear about how friends parents were losing X amount of their super and even my own father would tell me on a nightly how his super was taking a beating. Ten years on and I'm excited, nervous, anxious etc, as I now have my life's work invested in both the housing market and the stock market. I know it is times of extreme fear and doom that is most opportune to buy, but I, like many may find a million reasons not to invest as its not hard to get in the old 'this company/stock' could go to zero' campaign.

@Alex Straker out of curiosity/tad personal, would you care to share the stocks that are on your watchlist as forever/long term buy and holds in the event of the pending correction?

Carry on all, the discussion, the questions, the answers etc are invaluable. Hope we all make a dollar and most importantly hope we all enjoy the journey.

Cheers

 

@Silverson thanks for asking, and you are right skin in the game is where it becomes far more interesting

I have shared a decent amount of stock picks here from time to time scattered around a few different threads. You know I love you like a bro, but to 'give away the farm' would not be fair to The Market Whisperer Newsletter subscribers and clients. Hope you understand.

In any case, your own common sense based list of shortlist of 50 blue chips would no doubt be fine. Also have a think about future trends in society, this is good from a long term perspective. For example industrials have been known to be outstanding for a long period of history however we are now moving from an industrial age to an information & technology age, plus socially & environmentally responsible trends are driving changes in the fastest growing sectors and subsectors, old ways of banking and financial transaction exchange technology is undergoing a major change to distributed ledger technology this could have very serious implications for future stock trends etc etc.

Otherwise there a couple of possible ideas for you - a subscription is less than 1k p.a (free for HTRE clients) and the feedback is that subscribers make that back in value very quickly OR if you prefer (and I know you are already in line for this).....come and start to learn the skills from me personally in the upcoming TA course for PC'ers. I know it's been a while coming but you will hear about it I promise, the season is almost right to launch now

 

I'm with you mate and completely understand, yes you are correct I'm keen as mustard for the TA course !!
Thanks for the reply mate, as always appreciate your work

 

Alex when the up rally occurs, do you think it will be all the markets in general or mainly the US?

Also I'm keen for your TA course too.I assume you will make it known on the forum via an announcement or similar.

 

@Alex Straker Fantastic stuff as always, how exciting!

What I am curious to know more about is the sheer size of the potential growth wave that follows this kind of dip in typical Elliot patterns:

DJIA went from approx 7000 to 26000 from 2009-2018. Are we talking something along those lines? Smaller? Or can this type of growth wave be even more radical than what we have seen in the last ten years?

Does history show us any examples of this kind of growth wave?

Once again, thank you for your outstanding insights.

 

Mate if you read my post about 4 or 5 posts ago I gave thanks to great discussion, great answers and great questions.
This is exactly what I'm talking about, absolutely fantastic question!

 

@mrbleuu world markets tend to correlate quite well in terms of basic movement, it's the degree of movement that varies depending on which ones are most in favour for each cycle. Australia is overdue for boom time (from a LONG term perspective) lets put it that way All about China recovery and commodities cracking higher.....talked about this in other threads.

You are on the list for TA

 

Thanks for your response @Alex Straker. I'm excited too. I am planning to dump a crazy (to me) amount of money into super in the next couple of years. I'm not really interested in timing the market to a T, just buying as much as I can while the market is lower priced. With my super I can do that every 2 weeks which is good. This will see significant upside for me when the markets finally recover. I just need them to not crash for a few years after that and I can retire

 

@itsmescottyc Cheers my man! There is a very long answer needed to that one properly, I will give you some brief thoughts below using SPY as an example, it's the granddaddy of them all.

One thing I can say is that I believe we will see a trend towards performance in equities being concentrated into a narrower band of stocks and sectors. Hence seeking portfolio management skills and a better market understanding suddenly becomes far more important going forward.

To see what is likely to come next lets look at a Supercycle perspective and zoom out to a SPY chart where is single candlestick = 1 WHOLE YEAR.

This makes the Elliott count surprisingly simple to follow!

SPY has just completed a Supercycle wave 3 (III) and this retracement leg is a wave 4. Yellow shaded area marks likely area (at this stage) for the end of this retracement Frankly, it may go on for so long that it really ****** people off.

SPY

Don't want to scare anyone but we will most likely see multiple swings down and up between this recent high and the support shown on the chart above and it's possible the low will come earlier than the purple timing zone then the next swings down and up will finish just short of the previous low/high forming a 'wedge' type pattern known in Elliott terms as a triangle. Would look something like this......



Why is this kind of wedge pattern likely? The principle of alternation between 'sharp' and 'flat' corrections applied to the Elliott count (wave 2 or II was a sharp (or zig-zag) correction).

From there we are into a Supercycle wave 5. It would normally not be as long as the wave 3 that preceded it (in Elliott rules wave 3 is never the shortest impulse wave of a set, wave 1 or 5 always is) but wave 5 is known as the 'Euphoria wave' that finishes a bull run and often involves a very rapid growth period particularly as it nears the end. It is also the easiest one to hop on board with because you have the advantage of being able to identify waves 1-4 plus use all that market structure to measure where end of wave 4 is likely to be and this adds to accuracy for entry.

 

Can't go wrong with DCA as a market falls Actually even if they did crash when you retire it would not matter if you set yourself up right. You don't lose the assets or income in a crash they simply fluctuate. It's a case of correctly planning and managing your position to have enough income so you do not care about any fluctuation.

 

That's completely true.

 

Hi @Alex Straker
After reading basics on Elliot Wave Patterns I feel like I see them everywhere. How can you judge the likely future course of, say, a 6 month wave pattern upward trend, when if you just “zoom out” to 3 years, it’s actually heading downwards on a bigger wave? Can that be co-existing?
It’s like fractals, you can go right down to 1 day and see the patterns! I find it difficult to fathom how it can work on increasing timescales and remain consistent....
Although a true fractal would of course be consistent....