World Indices Roundup 2020

Like you said, no news, yet it rockets up. What do I keep telling you all! Oh I forgot you're new here

 

Tsunami Surfer

 

Well as least he’s having a crack at it.

 

Cheeky!

 

Groan!

 

And no doubt he did after that dive.

 

It certainly did crack me up when I first saw it.

 

I think there is a higher probability that we are not yet at or near the bottom and there is a fair amount of downside left to go. So far the majority of the negative news is on the virus. There has been a relatively small amount of reporting on unemployment claims, both here and in the US, Euro markets. There is more reporting on the stimulus efforts.

Initial jobless claims in the US for March has recently come in - 3.2 million. To put that into perspective, the previous record during the GFC was around 700,000 Initial Jobless Claims Historical Chart Off the scale.

I don't believe the market has fully priced in the real depths of the economic fallout. The news of stimulus has injected a bounce which will be sold into and set the base for the next significant leg down.

The stimulus measures are not small by any means and will eventually be effective. During the GFC the stimulus, the US spent about 1 trillion over 2+ years. This time around they've just signed 2 trillion and likely much more to come, I expect it will go up to at least double that. But I personally think there is a way to fall and the market will be further surprised when the full brunt of bad economic data starts coming through in the next 2 months.

 

It will vary State to State

These are the states with the most job losses so far because of the coronavirus

 

Whilst I agree, we are NOT art or near the bottom, I think this maybe one of those times in history where the market isn’t as bad as the economy (I know this sounds silly). There is huge stimulus, big businesses will benefit, there will be further stimulus that will help business in my opinion, tax cuts/relief, favorable trading conditions, strong sentiment/elation once this is behind us. If this is worse than gfc and gfc came of ~57% then this could be an 80%+ event going off that logic. Whilst unlikely, still possible.
I think the big thing to look out for is reporting season, see how much of an effect this really has had (Huge no doubt) with lockdown/social distancing probably at the highest it will be minus possibly the exception of closing bunnings etc I think that will be close to the bottom.
My opinion only

 

It will be interesting to see if the slow down in posts here corresponds with increased market volatility. We may have a useful tool!

 

I will post some charts for XJO after Friday's close which will be ahead of the week (around early April) I said to watch for further weakness. At this stage I believe Intermediate wave (A) [should have been that in the earlier post - what was I thinking!] is finished. Lasted 32 calendar days and finished around the seasonal date of 20/21 March (equinox).

 

But is it really? Maybe it's mostly COVID-19 stuff.

 

I just was referring to this thread and activity in the last few days. There was a flurry of posts with the initial market chaos and then/now it has dropped off.

 

Waiting for the next big drop. Then you'll see!

 

Too eager, run out of money perhaps?

 

Investors should buy when fear peaks

 

I'm doing my best not trying to judge value at the moment and stick to the plan of 50 aussie / 50 international, but the Australian market is at levels that were seen in 2006. Compare that to the US market and it is a stark difference. I know that is simplistic and easy to refute (Japan has been in the red for 35yrs etc. etc.), and this isn't adjusting for dividends (or inflation), but that was 15 years ago. I appreciate we had a good run up in the 90's and early 2000's, but that is a very long time to have flat lined.....