World Indices Roundup 2019

Yes I have been following your predictions. I know your Elliot wave tells you we are in a Bear market and that you converted your shares into cash over 18 months ago . Just a month ago on June 3 you said we were in a sharp correction lol. Have to admire your tenacity the longer the bull runs for the closer he is to tiring, you will get it right eventually but you will have missed out on massive gains for fear of losing a fraction of them. Try turning your chart up the other way. Hint, earnings growth drives company profits which then drives share prices. It will be only slight deviations from high expectations in the August reports that will cause severe volatility and corrections (10+ drops ) as good reports are already factored in. You don't need to be Einstein or waste time on irrelevant charts to predict this possibility,

 

If you look at all the media entertainers who comment on the markets from 9-5 and 5-9 worldwide then most would never invest at all..There is a best seller called Irrational --Exuberance that has remarkable look inside market randomness and volatility by Professor Robert Shiller ..

XJO top who knows but why the date 24 July ?..

 

@Fargo I'll partly answer your post but will have to get back to you on your belief that earnings drive prices.

With the Elliott wave principle there is one wave formation that powerfully impels price in a certain direction (up or down). This is the impulse or "5" or 1-2-3-4-5, meaning wave 1 up, 2 down, 3 up, 4 down and 5 up (assuming the larger trend is up). In this formation waves 2 and 4 are corrective.



Wave formations that are considered corrective go against the larger trend but overall their combined retracement does not retrace the gain made by waves 1, 3 and 5. Simply explained, waves 2 and 4 are down waves when the larger trend is up and up waves when the larger trend is down. I say simply because (simple) corrective wave formations subdivide and mostly contain 3 subwaves (which in turn subdivide). An example is shown below - a zigzag. Overall the formation divides into 3, A-B-C. In a zigzag waves A and C subdivide into a "5" or an impulse. Wave B in the shown example is also a zigzag, although the subdivisions of waves ((a)) and ((c)) (and ((b))) are not shown.


Picture a market that is in the zigzag as shown but the whole formation spans years, even say a decade or more. Such a market would be described by most as a bear market but how is the period covered by wave B described? This is what I would refer to as a bear market rally. The larger trend is down determined by waves A and C but wave B is up. This is the idea I was referring to in regards a (bearish) alternative view of XJO from 2009 to present, one man's bull market is another man's bear market rally.

On 3 June 2019 I was using the term "correction" in a technical sense - i.e. a retracement in price. This was occurring in XJO at that time. I was not denoting the scale or size, for example, some financial commentators would say a 10% retracement is a correction versus a much greater crash. The correction (i.e. retracement in price) I was referring to ended on 4 June 2019 and the advance has continued.

It is now possible to label XJO's five wave advance from the December 2018 low as technically complete (and I'm assuming that my count is correct or sound). This is one of the limitations of the Elliott wave principle. A wave formation can be technically complete and correct but price doesn't then behave as expected (e.g. reverse when it should. The wave count can be complete and correct but yet be incomplete and thus incorrect.

Now back to my "irrelevant" charts and counting money I didn't make...

Better still I'll go for a spin to the All Ford Day at Willowbank tomorrow. I'll take the XW.

 

@willair in due course. Gotta polish the XW. Actually I've changed my mind. I'll take this instead.

 

@kitdoctor , how does the Elliot Wave system account for unknowns like Trump waking up on the bad side of his bed and Tweeting something that affects the market? Or even bigger unforeseen events like war or whatever that have detrimental effects on the world economy?

 

Socionomics and the Elliott wave approach are the complete opposite to the way most of us think. Trump tweeting, terrorism events, trade wars, North Korea firing ICBMs etc. have no effect on financial markets. We have been conditioned to believe they do and don't question it. If you do you attract the critics, unable to respect a person's right to hold a different viewpoint to their own.

It is the collective social mood that is the underlying cause of social action in its many forms, including the determination of the price of financial assets.

Socionomics uses a stock market index as a sociometer to measure the collective social mood of a given society. Socionomics allows you to predict the tenure, character and scale of the types of events that you mention but not their precise timing. For example, major conflicts (e.g. world wars) occur at a certain Elliott wave degree or larger, North Korea and the USA always try to resolve their differences during periods when social mood is at a significant high point in history etc. etc.

For those interested:

Socionomics

Socionomics Institute

Robert Prechter - Wikipedia

 

Freakonomics is interesting

The Stupidest Thing You Can Do With Your Money (Ep. 297)

 

@kitdoctor, thanks very much for that.

 

I'll second that.

Some of the research is fascinating. For example, as social mood rises it is expected that men and women conform to their long held stereotypes. Men are dominant, strong, heroes etc. and woman are not equal, subservient etc. James Bond movies fit into this and are most successful both in financial terms and ratings when released when social mood is rising strongly, as indicated by a strongly rising stock market.

 

No problems. Always prepared to attempt to answer questions.

I wish I had more spare time but at the moment we're painting a house. Applying the Elliott wave principle is essentially about learning to recognise about a dozen or so patterns in price movements, like a zigzag, that repeat time and time again in markets. I'd like to show how in real time how I'm using the Elliott wave approach to predict the price trajectory and enter a trade in Cann Group shares listed on the ASX.

For those interested, take a look at their chart from time-to-time over the next week or two. The price of these shares will fall in a particular pattern to a low point that marks the end of a price correction that started on 15 April 2019. The correction or corrective pattern has taken the form of a double zigzag which just means a zigzag followed by another zigzag. The C wave of the second zigzag is currently underway and in itself is taking a particular form that looks like a wedge.

Double or triple corrections are problematic because one will expect a corrective wave pattern to finish given its right "look", only for price to not do what is subsequently expected. What often then plays out is a review of the corrective pattern reveals it can be viewed in a second different way and one realises that only the first half of the corrective pattern has occurred. There are some guidelines on when to expect double/triple correctives patterns. They appear very often.

 

@kitdoctor great to have you around brother, awesome info you are sharing!! Finally someone else as 'fringe' as I am is helping to explain stuff


XJO

WATCH 6,778

.....give or take a few pennies.

No advice

 

Still watching...

This market has been fantastic lately, almost like Melbourne and Sydney’s property market few years ago. You can throw money into any stock and make money.

 

I find it depressing.

 

It's hard holding lots of cash and waiting. Don't stress to much, the big drops will happen sooner than later.

 

Timely remark me thinks

Would not be surprised if some selling began this week and continued mid August with market down from here by Nov then little bounce into Xmas and continue down bit more next year.

 

He he, not really what I meant but hey yes big drops do happen.

 

Made up a more visual version, bit easier to understand.....

Couple more guide dates added too.

XJO

 

Waiting for that sharemarket sale to start. I’m warming up and stretching those hamstrings. As soon as that starting gun fires will be diving straight in to the equities. As the saying goes, shop till you drop. Burst through those asx doors like it’s opening time at the Boxing Day sale.

 

Great time to be a CEO ...
The Stock-Buyback Swindle

 

You’re training is all wrong. When those Elliot Waves reach Tsunami Level this is what you should be training for:


This is where I’m at now, well at least in my mind.