World Indices Roundup 2019

Sounds like a replication of what David Bowden did 20 years ago.
Made predictions based on gann theory, got them right, becomes famously new genius charging $1000's for books/courses.

I too did the course and it has served me well.

Only thing Gann cant do for anyone is control their discipline!

 

I hope that this does propel Alex into super stardom. He does an amazing job on the predictions that he makes here - and obviously has dedicated himself to his craft working super hard for the benefit of himself and his clients. Alex - i wish you all the success and fame.

 

Absolutely!

 

@sharon Thanks for your loyalty Shaz! Really hope folks can use it for some benefits, I hear stories that they are One thing studying Gann & related material has taught me is that it's very important to strive to give of our own best selves.

@Phar Lap Yes, I am aware of David Bowden and his material. He did a good job of teaching market basics using Gann's swing charts and some other principles but what he teaches the public does not reflect that he understands Gann's true system and TBH I'm kinda pleased about that. He may have has more knowledge that he chose to hold back or only teach in a limited fashion to individuals as Gann did.

As I'm sure many who have studied Gann will know, 'hidden knowledge' is a large aspect of cracking the system as well as and that is what makes the nature of Gann's material so difficult to master. I have probably done more research and charting time chasing the solutions than most people on this planet and I know for a fact that VERY few have cracked it.

I have extensive records of a system very similar to what Bowden was teaching that was called "W D Gann Lost Treasure Discovered" by Robert Kraus. This taught how to apply Gann's swing trading chart and some other basic rules. The system had trading records both on charts and videos that taught the swing trading method in detail with some other basic rules. This system produces quite a respectable edge (over 65% and it worked a little better with commodities) but this is certainly nothing like Gann's ability to forecast market turns in advance with great accuracy. Studying this was one of my early attempts to understand Gann pre 2000.

After years of lacking understanding of the truth of Gann but consistently improving mainly through my early days of Elliott wave & harmonic pattern study, suddenly the right teacher appeared for me in 2005. This teacher is a private US hedge fund consultant from New York and is particularly brilliant in a method known as median lines as well as having some understanding of Gann. He taught me a kind of 'market logic' based largely on numbers and geometric principles that I have not seen anywhere else and although this was not strictly Gann based, it certainly worked on the same harmonic principles Gann followed while not being quite as refined. I am extremely thankful for the things he did for me and without his help in proving to me that high level market understanding and accurate determinate forecasting IS possible (but difficult!) and teaching me the key geometry techniques I would not have finally figured out the pieces to the puzzle to what Gann was really doing. Some significant keys to the answers also came from related knowledge on harmonic principles from doing my music degree that all tied together .

There are 3 other people in Australia who I am aware of who have a genuine understanding of at least part of Gann's true system, David Burton (who I believe has a good knowledge from his writings), Peter Palaskas and Dawn Bolton (not sure if she is still around, she is quite elderly if she is) I'm sure there are a small number of others at varying levels of understanding keep to themselves. My own articles, private notes and white papers (some of which are unpublished as yet) include topics on Harmonic Chart Scaling to Capture Market Resonance, Natural Harmonic Vibration & Resonance, Examining Sound as the Basis for all Market Cycles, Integration of Sound Wavelengths and Circular Time Measurement, Rhythm in Natural Cycles, Finding the Golden Mean, The Inherent Numerical Relationship between Sound Frequency, Music, Time by Degrees and Distance.

Gann's material runs very deep and it's not just a set of mechanical rules and impossible to explain in brief. Unlocking it requires discovering a set of incredible mathematical principles derived from ancient & sacred hidden arts. Once understood It is not vague or daunting. In fact it is quite the opposite, a highly specific, repeatable, consistent but complex set of integrated methods, and it does require a deep understanding. The methods all confirm each other and are based on the principles of mathematics, geometry, astronomy, music, and pattern reading. For me it is by far the most interesting and important learning I have ever undertaken and I continue to study related material vigorously every day. The best part was once I had the very first moment of illumination about Gann's methods, confirmation that I was correct started coming from all sorts of places. As I have said before anyone who discovers the truth about Gann's teaching will just know they have found keys if & when they find them or are lucky enough to be led through the door and down the rabbit hole.

 

Almost forgot the chart update...

SPY


See previous posts where 2,853 level was forecast for more detail. Nice price rejection from there on Friday during US trading session that night. Don't you love it when a plan comes together!

Early stages yet, if my expectations are on track expect a slow motion train wreck up until June/July then the wheels will really fall off the cart later in the year and most likely going in to 2020.

Other indices also showing change in sentiment, volatility increasing....

DAXX


FTSE


VIX


No advice

 

That brings back memories. I originally studied the Bowden stuff including SITM. But then a successful local Futures trader in Canderra suggested that the teachings of Robert Krausz in combination with the Fibonacci Trader software was much better than Bowden’s system. So I progressed to following Krausz’s approach. This is a long time ago but from memory it could perhaps be described as Gann Swing trading across Multiple Time Frames.

I see Fibonacci Trader is still going strong:
Fibonacci Trader - The First Multiple Time Frame Software for Traders

Along with the software I purchased the Gann Lost Treasure Discovered Book. Krausz was a great believer in MANUALLY testing your trading system, time consuming and tedious to say the least. But there is a deep psychogical connection that takes place when doing this and a greater trust in the system. One certainly learns the meaning of patience.

After that I then did an expensive full blown course over a year from memory with Robert Krausz. One month’s course material was posted from the US each month then there was direct contact with Krausz to aid in understanding and implementation. In my case It’s application was mostly directed at Futures Trading.

From what I’ve seen from @Alex Straker ’s Teachings so far and that’s not even his advanced material it goes way beyond the likes of the above and other available material / courses generally available globally.

Nowadays I’m a lazy sod content to collect the income from shares rather than havIng to work (trade) for capital gains. Plus I find trading too stressy given my nervous disposition particularly as I’ve gotten older.

 

I don't understand it, but I watch with interest

 

@Nodrog thanks for your input, you really are a bag of surprises and fountain of knowledge....I didn't know you were a 'Krauszian' back in the day. It's worth learning his system just to understand the swing components.

Your point about testing and learning to trust your own system is so vital. This is integral to success in any venture. I believe Krausz was trying to get across that to 'Know thyself' is always rule number one and your system will inevitably be a reflection of yourself and your true understanding of the nature of the market.

No two people are likely to have the same outcomes even if they follow the same 'rules' due to many other factors mainly psychology based plus various discretionary elements that will always creep in to decision making even when 'following the rules'. A testing and proving period is vital to gain the psychological strength needed to execute a plan without 'getting in the way of yourself' somewhere in your processes. If this period fails then either your understanding of the market and/or the system being used is too weak to generate an edge and/or your psychology is interfering with following the system properly.

 

Was totally obsessed with it all for a number of years. Did quite a few courses / training / seminars. The SFE when it existed had an incredible library for traders so I joined as a member and borrowed endless books and studied them like crazy. Of course like many with this interest I was a member of the ATAA.

Although I had software such as Fibonacci Trader and Metastock it was Trade Station I used quite a lot for Systems futures trading.

The trouble is given my obsessive personality I near exhausted myself as it became all consuming.

All seems like a distant memory nowadays and I’ve forgotten much of it. Life’s priorities / interests change and over the years my appreciation for simple, near set and forget “shares for income” approach has grown immensely.

For those with the right behavioural traits trading / active investing can be a truely fascinating interest. You’ll learn as much about yourself as you do about the markets. My interest was in Technical Analysis / charting rather than fundamental analysis which I could never really get interested in as it bored me to tears. Still does hence part of the reason why I invest in listed funds for income.

If I decided to take a little more interest in this area again it would only be to improve the probability to trying to better time major long term moves in the local and US indicies. Not to trade and not to sell but simply buy less / more depending on market analysis. Otherwise stick with DCA.

 

@Alex Straker

Thank you for the detailed information here. I am hoping you are indeed correct and that the 2,853 level holds for the SPY.

I am wondering what prompted a slight change in tune with your forecast. I recall you mentioning last month that "the road map for XJO was to drift higher in to JUL/AUG 2019 then down in to NOV/DEC 2019 for a major low".

Now, you're suggesting we should expect "a slow motion train wreck up until June/July then the wheels will really fall off the cart later in the year and most likely going in to 2020".

I am inquisitive by nature so I was wondering what prompted this change for the forecast up to July 2019. I also sent you a message inquiring about your TA course as it is something I am very interested in learning.

Finally, I note you drew a pretty line chart for the XJO accompanying your long range forecast post on 20 March. Do you have a similar chart for the SPY too? Would you expect the SPY to follow a similar pattern? I understand you put out the forecast to celebrate your new book coming into fruition and you posted the XJO chart as part of that.

 

US stocks have had a great run, at some point they must stumble

 

Can't possibly explain all that here but basically the probabilities shifted.

Trying to predict the future of the market down to a few points/days of accuracy is not an exact and 'fixed answer' science, it's probabilities based. As new information & market movement is constantly coming to light it's important to re-evaluate and the charts constantly evolve, sometimes showing me new things I had not seen last week. The last info I posted is my most up to date view, same theme as I have posted repeatedly for a very long time here - Major low coming late 2019.

 

Rather than a new thread:

Source: Callum Thomas on Twitter

 

For the dumb out here what can we conclude from this graph?

 

What does the grey area represent, because the market appears to have gone above and below?

How is the median calculated? With that level of jitter it looks like one stochastic outcome from a set of Monte Carlos simulations. If it's the median of the outcomes after 20% drop in exactly 3 months, how useful could that be given the number of times it's happened?

 

Update on world indices.

Up until this breakout occurred, indices have been in 'lost motion' near recent highs.

Market tops are always messier and harder to forecast than lows. With tops there is by nature much less market structure available to measure the patterns and less line work means less certainty. Lows are more fear driven and well defined. Look at any market chart and you will see that the major lows are a 'singular', well defined point where as tops tend to come in messy groups with multiple 'attempts' to find the highest price. This is basically what we are seeing now on the indices, although I have some new work on where I now believe SPY has a strong chance of making a final top for this year at approximately 3,000 - 3,120 area and XJO a top around 6,430 - 6,500.

Most likely defined area for final tops: SPY 3,000 / XJO 6,500 / Mid-late MAY 2019

SPY


XJO


Summary of outlook...

After a small breakout above the prior 2018 tops for SPY and XJO, I believe we will see a significant longer term top form in mid-late May. Around this time I expect major world indices including SPY, XAO/XJO/ FTSE and DAXX to complete this leg higher and go in to a down turn lasting many months at a minimum.

Without seeing all the evidence that I see and understanding the reasoning, I realize it's hard to accept these forecasts on 'faith' but all I can say is watch this space......my personal conviction on this one is very high. Even higher than it was with the last two forecasts I made for a significant top on indices and those ones turned out very accurate in both timing and price levels (see for yourself from my earlier posts in this thread and market results). I certainly don't always presume to be correct!! Forecasting is almost impossible to get precisely correct every time, but I like to share when I think there is something important to be aware of.

It appears a traditional seasonal 'sell in May' is coming up and around mid to late May expect to see some early evidence of strong selling. If this happens, it's a sign this long term forecast is finally taking effect and the outlook (for me) changes to very bearish in this case.

Again, I can't state with enough importance that once this starts it is likely to be tough times for equities markets for quite some months ahead, and maybe a couple of years. Time will tell.

No advice.

 

Sell in may and go away, these little phrases/rhymes have been made for a reason haha!
If I were looking to add or to increase my dca I would be doing so from June this year and continue until mid 2021. From here a strong 5year bull market will follow and we will see a sharp drop in 2026.
Why? I can see for no good reason, pessimist behaviour and sentiment has turned, labour getting in and attacking self funded persons/business etc, however as much as we don't want to admit, history has shown markets perform better whilst labour is in power(hence the 5 year bull run after some getting used to bubble o bill and his mates)
My opinion only

 

I agree with @Alex Straker on XJO. My wave count is different but the advance from late December 2018 is in its fifth wave, looks like an ending diagonal (to finish what I label as Minor wave A). It is also approaching the upper trend line that has confined its advance since March 2015. I see it topping out above 6500 in June then reversing sharply. The three wave move shown by the pink lines was depicting a conceptual view of the approach (a three wave move A-B-C up-down-up at Minor wave degree) to Target 1 that I had identified. One might say the price action is adhering to this so far. I hope I am wrong.

 

If trumps trade wars settle and an agreement is put in place, will this change your view?

 

I’m not interested in waves, I want a tsunami crash please.