World Indices Roundup 2019

Looks like the market is nudging above the 6720. I still don't see this short term rally becoming a long term uptrend. @Alex Straker , if we do see a break through the 6740-6750 mark which would represent a break past the last high in late September, would that have any change on your forecasting and view on the market direction?

Fundamentally I don't see how the market could move significantly higher from here, but what I am learning quickly is that when it comes to human behaviour and financial markets anything is possible.

 

This may sound like a petty argument but unlike the preferred Euro --US --and --Japanese tradition where-by most high end listed concentrates on re-investing it's profits to build up the company and increase the raw share value..Then if you were to think about it more carefully what happens if the sharp sell off does not happen and thinking back too Thursday 15TH October 1987 and the Friday evening the Dow fell 95 points then it's largest one day fall..On Monday the Aussie market was the first to open fell 20 percent--next Tokyo fell 1,500 points then London fell 250 points --Then that afternoon the Dow crashed by another 500 points..So in simple terms over a three day period the world stock markets lost one quarter of it's value..

A lot of worldwide experts think this is about to happen again ,Not Me every time this happens investors start to get worried that they will miss out and someone else seized the opportunity and dice roll again and the broker fills the buy order within 20 Seconds ,btw that's only my out--there opinion ..imho..

 

What fundamentals are they? Comments throughout this thread indicate the market is defying all logic. I’m not a technical analysis person so I’m genuinely interested what these comments are based on. Cost of capital is at historically low levels

 

I side with you somewhat on this one.
I too am of the belief that there are turbulent times in the near future late 2019 to late 2020 where we could see the markets loose a quarter of its value, I have publicly stated on here that I expect to see a 30% fall from peak which will take us to circa 4800 levels (xjo) what will follow will be rises that we have not been seen before and what many may never see again going into 2026.

Trick is this, everyone, me included has grand plans of tipping sizeable amounts into equities but reality is when the time comes and the proverbial hits the fan will we be able to part with the hard earned.

 

The current interest rates are impacting the stock market. It may require a turnaround in rates before the market drops off the cliff.

 

just based of some stuff I read online. No technical analysis from me. I’ll leave the technical analysis to the experts. I read lots of rubbish from online media to forums such as this and come up with such conclusions. That’s why I recommend you don’t follow any of my hot tips.

 

Yeah I believe that’s what’s distorting markets at the moment. Problem is I don’t see rates rising significantly any time soon or possibly ever.

But that doesn’t mean there can’t be a knee jerk reaction type of sell off in the mean time. That’s what I’m waiting for. And if it doesn’t happen in the next few months then i will have to decide wether I just jump back Into the market regardless.

 

Rubish in - Rubish out.

Fundamentals only provide a loose envelope within which the market explores fear and greed to set prices.

If you are predicting a fall in equity by default, when you invert your argument, you are predicting a spike in the value of cash – Big call in the face of the RBA governor spelling out lower for longer interest rates and every man and their dog hanging out for a decent dip in asset values to get their money to earn at least something.

This is my measure of fair value driven from the underlying economy. On a historical valuation perspective based on underlying economic drivers we sit about fair value. Fundamentally speaking we have as much chance of the market exploring 10,000 as 4,500 before I would say things are even approaching the bounds created by fundamentals



I eventually come to the conclusion that the only use of Technical is to tell me where I am wrong in my beliefs. You can believe whatever hocus pocus you like to take a position, but you better understand that its a fictitious story about the future and not fact and be ready to reverse if things don’t work out according to your story. There’s a truism in trading that it’s not being wrong that matters, but how long you stay wrong. The best losers win at trading. No profitable trader I personaly know relies on a high win ratio. They rely on good trade management to exit the mistakes and let the winners run in order to generate a high expectancy.

If you waiting for a pull back and it doesn’t come then you had better quick reverse your position when the evidence shows you are wrong or you won’t enter the market until you finally succumb and capitulate at much higher prices, usually somewhere near the eventual turning point.

If you are a long-term accumulator, you should be accumulating through DCA, not trading at any rate. Being a half arsed trader is a dumb idea. Spending 1,000’s on technical analysis is even dumber. Good trading is not about predicting the future and neither is good investing.

But what we do have now based on Alex’s story is a good trade set up as being right and being wrong is now confined to a tight zone both in price and time.

If you have been sucked into being a trader when what you really want to be is an investor – this is the period where you can break free. Hopefully you will get the pullback shortly to get started, but if you don’t. take it as a lesson learnt and get started any way. Don’t go through another cycle of waiting for the next dip or missing it again because it doesn’t hit your expected depth.

 

Great post @dunno, mrs pippen would agree! A long term accumulator via dca every pay cycle at least 25% of her pay goes to vanguard wholesale funds! No attempt whatsoever at market timing or trading! Im the silly one but getting much much better in dca also instead of speculating on market movements! Reading on stockmarket history and behaviours is a huge benefit!

 

Agree, another great post @dunno . I do appreciate you pointing this out to me, even though you and others have done this a few times and I have been stubborn to date.

I have no intention of being a trader but a long term buy and hold investor. I have stuck with this position for a few months now and would like to give it another few months at most to play out. I don’t feel like I have given up much over the last few months as the market has mostly tracked sideways. It has been more frustrating than anything else and has resulted in me watching the market much closer than I should be.
Again I have minimal technical expertise but think the market is primed for knee jerk corrections due to all the political turmoil around us. In 20 years that will make little difference but I really want even a 10% discount so I can do my current lump sum build up buy in.

 

Remember by not being in the market you are also losing out on approx 5.5% gross dividends which if re-invested through DRP will have its own compounded returns.

Best not to think too much and have a set date to start accumulating. That way you know your future course of action and don't need to worry about the market's future course of action which is very hard to predict consistently.

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

It looks like XJO rejected the 6740 level just in time for October 18th...The next week may be interesting.

 

Yes I noticed that. It flirted with it at close yesterday and I thought it might just push through today.

The next week will definitely be interesting. Based of my crystal ball and when I say crystal ball I mean @Alex Straker we should start to see significant downward movement.
I’m only looking for 10% discount so we can get the party started. And with @Nodrog back online maybe we can finally catch that wave we have been talking about for a while now.

 

Your not catching anything laying there on your floating mattress. Get your board back out and start paddling.

 

Quality post, thank you @dunno

 

Hi to all.

www.tradingview.com wiped all my charts including those for important indices. Wow that was one tsuami I didn't see coming.

On the bright side I've rebuilt all my charts for individual shares and more and have discovered some gems in those but haven't made a big start on any charts for important indices. Although I had screen snapshots I'm working from scratch to start from a clean slate and do a refresh. I've had some time to look at the ASX 200.

I feel I could add to the discussion on the ASX 200 now that there's been some time pass since the initial sharp drop and the price action is essentially moving sideways. There's a clue in this. Remember I posted the image where two women could be seen. The point was, yes the end of a five wave advance is significant, a correction will follow, but the more important question is what is the larger degree wave that is finishing. It could be a first, third, fifth, certain As or Cs wave. Each of these have a character that can inform the nature of the correction. There is a wave count suggesting good times are just ahead and the worst of the price correction could be over. It is one possible option or alternative.

Without a chart a discussion would be difficult to follow. I'd like to present the main options or alternatives I'm following wave counts for. I hope to have a new chart ready to discuss soon.

 

thank you for sharing .. I can't wait to see this chart

 

This 10% drop by months end is looking unlikely with only a few trading days left.
Market appears to be drifting sideways at the moment. Not sure what it will take in the current climate to cause significant movement either way.

 

The market in general doesn't do much except 10-20 days in the year where majority of the gains come from.

Truth is no one knows when market's best 10-20 days will be during the year. Miss them and studies have shown your returns could almost half.



See this article

Cheers,
Oracle.