Will Property Really Plummet?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sackie, 16th Apr, 2020.

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  1. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  2. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Although not commentary on value of commercial office space, the vibe would appear that there won't be more than ripples however the thinking that office life (& demand) will return to normal is probably wishful thinking and highlighted more by the need to control and supervise staff rather than the expectations that the work will be done regardless of the working environment or location.

    Linky
     
  3. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    This is the "biggest" thing since the depression
    So normal cycle behaviour will apply less,

    Who knows
     
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  4. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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  5. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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  6. Biggbird

    Biggbird Well-Known Member

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    I don't think he really added that much TBH. I don't think there are really any sectors of our employment market which are not at least partially impacted by all of this. Also, I think everybody with any sense has been saying that the property market lags the more forward looking and liquid sharemarket, and hence will take longer to show the effects. I don't doubt that the efforts of the banks and the government will help to avoid a much larger disaster, but I think it's naive to believe this will all just blow over. Then again, I guess I'm pretty bearish on the whole thing, but we'll see eventually!

    I'm just glad that Hobart is already headed down :p Just have to be patient!
     
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  7. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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    I listened to a great podcast episode on the great depression not long ago, if I can find it I will post it up. The Economist interviewed on it made the claim that the (US economy) can now bounce back from downturns quicker than since the great depression. The reason stated was a far greater % of public service workers and welfare recipients creating a cushioning effect.
     
  8. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    If you interpret the depression as a sharemarket crash, a financial crisis, no bank deposit protection and government doing very little at the start......
     
    Last edited: 17th Apr, 2020
  9. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    I think so. 20-30% corrections are not uncommon. Even the Shorten debacle caused properties to fall around that easily - people have short memories and already forgot who he is.

    Would it fall 50%? Not sure. 20-30%? Easily.
     
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  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Time will tell. Certainly think anything is possible.
     
  11. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    I think the key question is will the Government willingly let it fall without a fight....? Infrastructure, construction and FHB stimulus is on the cards IMO. The biggest falls are likely in the initial 6 months post-lockdown when/if the Gov ceases the hibernation payments.
     
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  12. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    I think anything under 10% will be an extraordinary result.

    My estimate is 20% with the decline commencing in 6 months or whenever mortgage freezes stop.
     
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  13. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    I think Melb and Syd will feel great pain

    Immigration slow down

    Melb reliant on service industry, hit both ways
     
  14. Duck1234

    Duck1234 Well-Known Member

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    Would the mortgage freeze be extended? Would things be back to normal soon?
     
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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I wouldn't be shocked if that happened. Tbh I wouldn't be shocked if our markets skyrocket when all is said and done either. Anything is possible I reckon
     
  16. Serveman

    Serveman Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that different segments of the market will be effected at different levels. In the under 550k metro market I think it’s going to stay relatively solid as it’s the price point that most people will be able to afford. Some holiday houses and tourist areas will suffer especially if they are more than 3 hours from major cities. Cities and regions with government and medical employment hubs will be stable. Areas with highest debt to income ratio will suffer the most.
     
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  17. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    IMO the properties in the under $500k for detach houses will be fine.
    $500k to $1 million detach houses will see some correction of 5 to 10% in the short terms.
    $1m to $2m detach houses will see some correction of 10% in the short terms.
    This is for Sydney and Melbourne... Generally it is nothing to be honest. Time will tell if the borders don't open back up for migration - the worst felt areas will be the new estate and high rise developments.

    IMO if we do enter a real depression - all bets mentioned above is off.
     
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  18. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    If economy survives we will be fine

    Just not sure how it going to impact on job numbers, globally

    will lending tighten??? Dont know

    interest rates will stay low
     
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  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I think if most ppl can get back to their jobs, and lending doesn't get crazy tight ( I don't see that happening as PM wants to encourage business and investment), then we could be relatively OK. Probably some drops but once market sentiment gets back, I think it could be a game changer.

    There is so much demand to spend and buy. Just just sentiment again.
     
  20. Kid hustlr

    Kid hustlr Well-Known Member

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    Snippet on the ground in my area, 2 sales post virus both 5-7% below what they would have fetched 2-3 months ago.

    To be expected

    Edit: sydney northern beaches houses