Why Hasn't Brisbane BOOMED

And so price and rent trend will reflect the vacancy rate accordingly. Some commentators has indicated that appartment in Brissy will actually go up by 6% in 2020 due to low level of completion and high interstate migration. will not hold my breath but at least someone is cheering for it.

 

SQM Research - Residential Vacancy Rates brisbane

SQM Research - Residential Vacancy Rates Sydney

SQM Research - Residential Vacancy Rates Perth

The rental vacancy is tightening quite repidly for perth. so it makes a good case for investors to go in now.

 

Are you kidding me? I am from Perth and relying on these stats is very risky IMHO.....

I can tell you unless you know what product to buy and where to buy stay away.

Certain desirable pockets above $1M may cut it for primary residence, wont for for investors.
There is massive oversupply on the rental market we took a 25% hit.

 

Supply & demand, there are plenty of economies going well all around Australia, in fact the world, but you & I don't want to move there. Some people do (that is the demand), but if enough new houses are built for them (supply) then not much of an effect.
Stigma & lifestyle drive property more than economy in my view, not all of us want to live in Brisbane because we:

• Have family elsewhere
• Don't like the heat
• Etc.

Put it another way, the economy goes well and you, Whitecat, earn more-does that mean your house is worth more? Not necessarily.
Are you going to move house? Not necessarily.
If you do move, why would it be? You probably want a house closer to the city, your work, better quality etc.

One line I can see people coming back with: He could use the extra money to invest in property? True, but have a look at research as to how many Australians own an investment property and you'll see the vast bulk of market is owner occupiers.

Thanks.

 

Hey @MTR I don't think anyone should rely on one source. A combination of sources, articles and on the ground observation has indicated that its not that off. Infact, its definitely more reliable than anecdotal evidence for a overall market trending.

 

Not necessarily but a pretty damn strong correlation

Prices in Gladstone, Karratha and other mining boom ilk doesn't shoot through the roof because of stigma and lifestyle

 

@MTR the rent has stabilised in Perth for a while now am I not right?
I think we should see uptick in rent in the next 2 years once vacancy goes below 2%.

Same as Brisbane, there was a massive hit 2016 and 2017 and things has stabilised since. the uptick is already happening in patches. In the next 12 months it should be a widespread trend.

 

Depends on product

 

Yep agree.

The vacancy rate is still high in Perth as it is over 3%...but it is coming down...once under 3% the balance is there. I reckon Perth will go down to 3% by end of next year/early 2020.

Sydney is going to hit 3% plus....in the next 12 months.....lots of people are dropping rents by up to $500 for houses over $1500pw. The stuff under $500 have dropped $50-$70 so not as bad as Perth but still up to 14% down in rents. Average is a 10% drop.

Brisbane is vacancy is actually trending down albeit slowly.

Melbourne is pretty much supply and demand are keeping up. So I do not see a lot of drops in rent...besides it is very affordable market...it is even on par to rent with Perth for similar distances.

 

I still don't think we will see any sort of boom here until the economy picks up When mining gets pumping again that's when we'll see notable growth

 

I dont believe we are going to see any booms anywhere is OZ until we see credit squeeze ease

 

I would agree with this.
Although non mining accounts for a fair bit and is growing, it's not large and not significant enough to warrant a widespread boom by itself. It will need mining to kick up a gear. Mining is cyclical, so at some point it will and if at that point, the non mining in Brisbane is also strong, then a boom that makes Sydney blush is on the cards especially given the low entry prices. Liklihood of both mining and non mining happening at same time? Dunno, but given that both are counter cyclical to eachoyher, probably say not too much... Maybe short window.
Till then..steady and mediocre growth across most desirable suburbs, with some performing better than others (what we have seen in last few years).

 

Credit is available for bne prices but not Sydney prices

 

True-ish, but I would argue it is actually jobs=i.e. back to lifestyle, people like to live close to where they work, that is the demand.
Take Adelaide as an example, the government could upgrade all the military facilities there and you might see an economic boom from all the infrastructure spending=but potentially there would be very few jobs actually created (merely construction workers switching projects) as they are just upgrades.
Also drill down into employment data and you'll find in general that the main industries by number of people employed in Australian towns & cities are: Health, Retail & Education=that is where significant job growth can come from.
One thing you could argue though is the stigma of economic growth-i.e. I could imagine a real estate agent using it as a selling point (the region's economic growth) and that enticing people to think it is a good buy.

 

I dont understand what you mean, comes down to whether you can service debt and this is what has tightened

 

This makes perfect sense. There are far more people in Australia who can qualify for a $400k loan than there are who qualify for $800k loans.

 

Ok
So Brisbane will boom?? What are the indicators for this

What has changed, from post 1???

 

Be wary though that the $800K Melbourne & Sydney loans are underpinned by the higher wages in both these cities compared to the rest of Australia & given the vast bulk of the market is owner occupiers this makes sense.

Does anyone have any thoughts about what impact only having one council has on Brisbane's growth?
I think it would limit insane growth because council can control development/have a broader development strategy than other cities.

 

Five councils in the Brisbane area. Before they were amalgamated, some of the outer suburbs were considered "Brisbane" by locals even though they were in the shires. For example Springwood, Rochedale, Everton Hills, Arana Hills and Ferny Hills seem quite close to the CBD. I imagine that yes, council/state govt can limit insane growth. But do they want to, when they make so much income from application fees?

I attended a focus group recently about SEQ, about population and town planning and development and council rules and stuff. The councils are all bound by state planning. Each council uses different terminology in its town plans but apparently they are all the same with planning and development regulations. I thought the different councils had different planning rules but the researcher said they were all the same now.

 

No, but it wont crash. Steady growth is nice.