Who else thinks the Sharemarket is going to tank much further?

I have friends in Sydney, typical young couple bought new apartment last year, rented out one room to make payments, both in hospitality, now both stood down. Stressed out now as tenant has moved out and they are finding it very hard to meet repayments.

Would think many similar stories happening across Sydney and Melbourne where young couples have borrowed too much and will not be able to keep their homes even if just one person loses their job.

 

..How much more the goverment will forkout or how far they could go to help out,it seems they have a plan for 6 months...

 

Don’t they have savings?

 

This should answer your question..

 

Lol geared to their eyeballs ... oh well kind of their fault.

 

I asked my crystal ball and it said As much as they need to to stop the economy and unemployment from going to ****.

 

look like you have good balls

 

I suspect this may come home to roost at some point...

 

Maybe just wait a few months,when looking back October 7,2007 from the ledger i write every day the Dow high close was in the 14164 range from that level till march 2009 the low was 6547 --50 % the halfway point was as i'm not good with numbers was 10355 as it may take a while before a bearish surrender ..imho..

 

Sure, but this isnt a surprise, surely?

Its not a natural selection issue where a company shuts down and moves to mexico/china for cheap labour or an industry finds itself obsolete (kodak) They are shutting up from being told to by the government or government lockdown is making it unprofitable to open.

Many commentators suggest up to 15% unemployment, so we should expect 20-40 million unemployed in a very rapid time frame. I think the individual states have specific control over their shutdowns so I would assume that as each state goes into lockdown a large influx of new unemployed will result that week.

We have seen a 3 mil week, a 6 mil week, as each state closes we will see a huge bump that specific week depending on the population of that state.

This is uncharted territory of the worse kind and I know the media love their headlines like 'all time high', 'all time low' etc. but I dont think this worldwide crisis compares to anything else we have experienced in the modern era.

This is our generations World War, but instead of taking up arms and spilling blood on foreign soil we fight it by doing nothing.

Crazy times.

 

Spilling blood on foreign soil is an interesting concept.

If you have no jobs for people, you employ them as soldiers. The prize is you attack another country and steal their productivity.

Be careful what you wish for though. The Germans and Japanese thought it was a great idea at the start too.

 

For the past week markets have been very optimistic that the stimulus will be enough, will find it's way to where it is needed and now that new cases seem to be peaking.

I am not economically minded enough to calculate whether the stimulus will be enough. If anyone would care to have a crack please do. However in my simplistic view, 10% of GDP as stimulus will probably fall short and a lot will end up pumping the share market instead of where it needs to go.
Which will likely lead to lower consumer spending for longer, a rise in bankruptcies and unemployment which will eventually transform into lower earnings for companies and in turn lower share prices... That's a neat little circle...

As for CV cases. Well, how does this actually end?
New cases start to fall and the US starts to open up the economy again. New cases spike again and they shut it down. Open, close, open, close. Until heard immunity is reached or a vaccine is found. Does the open, close result in more stimulus each time? Coupled with a rise in unemployment each time?

Or does the stimulus do it's job, save all the businesses, put money in consumer's pockets, CV goes away and the economy kicks off again and we are back to normal by northern Summer?

 

Even my crystal ball couldn't give an answer to that one.

 

You only have one? Must have been pretty serious then.

 

Can you point me in the direction of where I can find out more about who can withdraw and how much etc? Cheers

 

From 20th April you can apply for it to ATO via mygov site

 

Have already submitted on MyGov that I intend to claim just interested in what rules will apply

 

Only one is crystal. The other one is titanium.