Where to buy for long term growth

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by daKing, 30th Dec, 2018.

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  1. daKing

    daKing Member

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    Hi all,
    I am looking to buy my second IP and am abit torn on which state to choose.
    The strategy I am using is
    • buy for long term (10+ years)
    • affordable properties 300K-500k
    • potential long term growth
    • good land with potential subdivision
    • positive/ neutrally geared
    Using this approach I bought my first IP in geelong early in the year. Its neutrally geared and it has done well with regards to CG (9%)

    Using several sources of data, I can see regional victoria still has some good picks at my price range (ballarat and geelong). Adelaide and northern brisbane also seem to be good candidates. (Adelaide especialy e.g Modbury north and happy valley). Cant Identify much in NSW at my price range

    My issue is I would like to diversify and try Adelaide or Brissy but am worried they arent good long term investments.
    Sydney and Melbourne are the economic powerhouses of the country. They are experiencing a lull at the moment but for sure they will come back. I read somewhere that the median price in Sydney by 2050 will $6M+
    Adelaide and Brisbane are projected to have 10% growth over the next 3 years but is that good enough.

    Should I stick to victoria and nsw as they have better prospects for the long term or should I diversify and enjoy the short term growth that is projected for adelaide and brisbane?

    any insights will be appreciated

    thanks
     
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  2. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    I would go Brisbane
     
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  3. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I would go for houses under 10 klms near the city in Adelaide and Brisbane under 500-650k....near transport and lifestlye.

    You might only buy 1-2 but you could make 200k in a short period of time.

    The other options in new House and Land in regionals assuming you get the land for cheap ....
     
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  4. ndpjai

    ndpjai Well-Known Member

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    Go for Brisbane only houses at least 600sqm land in the middle ring, you will do well imo. Good luck
     
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  5. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Melbourne and Brisbane - tied for number 1 spot.
    Melbourne might have a but more growth over the long term than Brisbane, but the cheaper buy in price will ensure Brisbane will likely ha e just as much cg% as Mel.
    Sydney - closely followed .
    ..
    Reasonable gap - then Adelaide and Perth

    It would be a mistake to categorise Brisbane with Adelaide and Perth.
    10 years ago, yes you would ha e been right to do so. Not now and definitely not in the future. Brisbane has been very clear in that they want to not be categorised with the Perths and be Competitive with Sydney and Melbourne .
    They have made strides to get to that point and much more in the pipe in the next5-7 years to move further towards that goal.
     
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  6. daKing

    daKing Member

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    Thanks, this is very insightful. are part of these measures diversifying the economy, coz I know in the past QLD was very dependant on Agriculture and mining
     
  7. Jmillar

    Jmillar Well-Known Member

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    Interesting post. What is Brisbane doing to position themselves as suggested?
     
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  8. daKing

    daKing Member

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    thanks ndpjai, am not very familliar with Brisbane, can you give an example of a surburb that falls in the middle ring?
     
  9. ndpjai

    ndpjai Well-Known Member

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    6-12 kms from Brisbane cbd; Stafford in north for example
     
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  10. Jana

    Jana Well-Known Member

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    Not too sure how you measure best investment. I just value capital gain, never worried about the final value. For last 30 years, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane achieved near 10% gain per annum. I think Brisbane cannot be discounted as they have huge investments in the pipeline including queens-wharf.

    As you mentioned Brisbane performs 10% per annum for next 3 years that means 33% gain. Some suburbs will perform better. I guess mostly Sydney and Mel will be in negative territory or flat until 2021.

    I still think Keperra, Geelbung, May be Stafford, Everton Park, etc mainly northern suburbs will do better as interstate migrants prefer north than south.
     
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  11. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Like way you think. A couple of points:

    1. I reckon 10% might be on the higher side..but it could happen in some places. I see more like 25%

    2. You are correct people in Brisbane will go North before Logan/Ispwich. But BCC wins thumbs down but is more expensive.

    3. Don't discount older walk-ups in built out areas in trendy suburbs ...house prices in these suburbs are now over 700k...units in some instances can be bought for even under 300k.

    4. Agree about Sydney and Melbourne. Sydney will take the biggest hit....Melbourne has a floor in some of the outer suburbs as the migrants prefer these burbs...but expect no growth for 4 years or so.....rents will edge up...
     
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  12. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure you can research all the non residential development that's going on...the cruise ship terminal, queens wharf, the entertainment complex, etc...all large scale Nd non resi ,non mining and non agriculture developments.
    On the ground, there are many more higher paying >150k jobs non mining that are on offer, and that's also one reason why it's attracting the southerners via interstate migration.
    Not many talk about mining anymore... There still is some talk, but substantially reduced buzz about mining. Even if it does make a rebound (and it will at some point), I doubt it will regain it's influence as it once had .
    Brisbane is moving away from that; the public and private sectors- the investments money put down by both public and private are also heavily focused on non mining (in Brisbane at least, cannot speak about regional qld).
     
  13. daKing

    daKing Member

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    the $6M was just an indication of the CG projected long term for Sydney.
    Given the arguments presented, Brisbane seems to be a safe bet.
     
  14. R377

    R377 Well-Known Member

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    I would def look at Bris and Adelaide. Melb and Sydney will be on the decline as they have just boomed
     
  15. R377

    R377 Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't even consider Happy Valley. Stick to the good beaches in and around Pt Noarlunga / Christies Beach way....
     
  16. Joshua Boctorani

    Joshua Boctorani Member

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    You used to be able to purchase a house in Sydney / Melbourne for circa $500k & get $500 per week in rent. Not a chance anymore - you can still achieve a similar outcome in Brissy & as investors chase yield / increase demand it will slowly up drive prices. Buying "right" is absolutely essential though..
     
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  17. johnmteliza

    johnmteliza Well-Known Member

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    I would stick to Victoria by targeting more affordable places with long term prosperity such as the Mornington Peninsula, Phillip Island, Frankston and Geelong. These areas can be significantly changed with future infrastructure projects and demographic changes and likely offer the best prospects for long term growth. Not to mention these areas are also semi-regional which are expected to perform well in 2019. Coastal markets also seem to have had the best growth prospects in the past.
     
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  18. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Why not wait a bit more and see how these things pan out. Brissie has been harped on about for better part of a decade, yes there has been some growth. Maybe there is some more or maybe this is it for a while in which case you would have bought in the peak of this mini-boom.

    Take your time and buy below market value.