Where do you see Sydney market in 12 months?

Dont buy in at the end of a boom ? or do what a lot of us prob did, buy a unit that is affordable in an affordable area ?

 

This is the nail in the coffin .... this will impact on all markets

Not sure how much in terms of % it will fall back. It will be dependent on how much supply comes to market

 

I meant husband and wife both work. Dual incomes.

Also, upsizers.

My mate in Perth just sold a $400k house and bought an $800k house. He would not qualify for an $800k loan but would qualify for a $400k loan. This is how some people can buy house above the median house price.

Another mate just settled on a million dollar house. He is not a high income earner so there is no way he could borrow a million bucks. He sold his old house for $700k. New loan ~$400k. Upsizing.

 

The joke in all this is that the majority of punters dumping on Sydney on PC probably don't have the funds or wherewithal to buy in Sydney in the first place - even if it dropped 40%. I'd love to know where their investments are.

The drawback of an online forum is you don't who's on the other end. Hell, I could be swayed by the advice from a complete rookie and I wouldn't even know it!

 

I hazard to guess a lot of combined incomes would only be in the low $100k's
I see your point. That $400k is an achievable loan for many households. Hence my wondering if that was linked to Perth median property prices and implied that Sydney prices have got out of wack by FOMO and easy credit.
Surely all of Sydney in the near past weren't upgrading.

 

Because average incomes is not a useful stat. Due to the way it’s calculated. It’s actually median that is useful.

This explains it.
Revealed: this is how much ordinary Australians really earn

 

I’m also sticking to my original point. There is less money in Perth now than 5 and 10 years ago. There is also less people and more house supply. People are underemployed (hidden from average salary stats) or have migrated away. This reduction in wealth in WA and shrinking economy along with extra housing supply is the reason for lower prices.

To argue there is more money or opportunity in Perth is madness. If there was people would migrate there like the boom times and the economy would actually grow.

Less money in Perth = lower prices.

 

Not all of Sydney were upgrading. Only some. You were wondering how people can buy an $800,000 house? That's one way.

The other is that half of employees are earning above the median wage.

Combine 2 people on above the median wage and they can borrow a lot more

 

Unless you are paying cash, the limit of how much you are prepared to pay is determined by the bank.

 

That's the truth..........and let's not forget....PC....represents..............0000000000.1% of Sydney property market...so basically irrelevant.

 

This is the best summary on why i am bearish on Sydney.

 

I think you need more data to determine market value there's too many variables that can come into play with a single transaction what happens if someone rich comes from living overseas and sees the house they were born in for sale and pay some extreme amount for it's sentimental value. How about a crap agent takes the first lowball offer. Market value is determined by looking at recent sales that's what valuers do.
But I think this is probably just an argument about definition as the point you are trying to make is that is what the market paid for that particular property at that point in time

 

Impact on all. But maybe not equally. Incomes are not that much lower in Brisbane but house prices are half the price of Sydney so after handcuffs will affect Brisbane differently to Sydney

 

Makes sense to me. I remember feeling like this when Brisbane was going nuts on this forum a few years ago and everyone was buying up thinking it was going to boom big time and I was looking around at the same old people in the same old jobs and thinking where's the money going to come from for a boom? I could see the attraction in the price point and I could see the potential for a future boom but I just couldn't feel the economic sentiment. Historically when Brisbane has boomed there has been strong mining Brisbane and Perth us a little bit similar in that regard but Perth is more mining dependent. Brisbane is slightly more diversified.

Anyhow as it turns out those who were buying in Brisbane at that time will turn out to do ok compared to if they had bought in Sydney because Sydney is going to drop by a lot more and Brisbane will move up very slowly is my prediction. So even though they may have missed a good bit of the tail of the Sydney boom that's going to be taken away anyway. Brisbane and Sydney will get back to their long-run relative medians by a combination of Sydney dropping and then stagnant for a long time and Brisbane rising a little bit slowly over time. My strong feeling, but all speculation of course

 

On the Goldie it now feels like when I was looking to buy back in 2011, except everything is 50 - 100k more. Im the only one at open homes usually, if I'm not it's often a neighbour. Display furniture business must be doing well ATM.

 

But you are ignoring the reason why markets are going south

Time will tell..... lets review in 6 months

 

But you know first hand how much harder things are now finance wise, also only a fool would ignore the drops, it is clearly on a downward trend, so who would be into it now in Syd apart from new home owners ?

Until this lending env becomes set in, and Syd has had it's cool off & incomes or yield improves along with the prospect of CG, it is def a no go,,,,,,

You can hold a lot more property in dollar value with less land tax and with much better yield and with slow and steady gains, there are places where it just ticks up, slowly but surely with some spurts as well, there are places that are very flat, and there is mining places which swing up and down pretty quickly. All of them look better to me than the 2 falling Cap cities that had a fantastic run.

So why buy in atm ? clearly it is coming off. Syd and Mel relies on CG with the current yield.

Property is kinda like poker at times, you hold your cards to yourself and you have to have the nerve to know when to be in the game and when to just look....it can be hard when your watching things go up, but if you been around for a while you know the booms end and things come off, it is always better to be buying when you have no competition or a little rational competition, and you can't buy into every market.

Now you prob know all this, but this is why some of us are not looking through rose glasses, it is what it is.