Where are the crashing markets in Sydney?

Thousands of markets. Supply and demand. Not saying Sydney doesn't have discounts . I'm commenting on one specific market in that post.

 

I made an edit above because I posed by accident too quick!

 

Personally. I’m much more interested now we are on the way down than the way up. I’m much more interested in buying in the next 2 years than the last 2.

 

You misunderstand when I say 40% etc. My first post was refering to entire suburbs and broad markets within 40km of the cbd correcting 40%+. Not happening atm. Not even close.

With regards to waiting for another 10-15% drop, I am again refering to a specific market and specific stock type . All too often ppl just lump thousands of markets ( and stock types) together . Can't do that .

 

45km and 30%. But kinda splitting hairs.

Where you think the biggest drops within 45km of city and how much? Suburbs?

 

Leo...this will happen. Th real issue is finance.

The Eastern suburbs..in particular...Bondi/Paddo/Waverley/Coogee/Randwick areas has a huge amount of young professionals who took out large mortgages.

The pressure will be felt quite a bit. I can see some of these markets come off up a further 10-15%...they have already come off about 8-10%. The level of indebtness is the real issue.

The same issue in the Hills....people living life beyond their means.

On the other hand...it looks like Qld is about to surpass Victoria for he first time in terms of net migrations......that is telling most are coming from Sydney. The other thing which will drive the downturn this time in Sydney is the sheer amount of baby boomers trading out...and moving..most are getting out of places like the Eastern suburbs...and Inner West. I expected the Inner West to be rock solid as it is more affordable and has a good lifestyle but it took took a massive hit.

I watch markets closely...that is why I got into Geelong in 2015....I see some opportunities in Sydney priming....but some patience is required. The real issue is how to capitalize on all this..as I need to sell to buy lots...

 

Yep....that is why I am watching Sydney....with keen interest. I have bought in Brissie early.

The plan is when Brissie takes off...I plan to sell and swap for Sydney...so counter cyclical investing.

The opportunities in Sydney are going to be huge. A lot of people on here are very vested in Sydney....now the party is over. Property investing has ups and downs. Research shows Sydney follows a boom and bust cycle similar to Perth. Where as Adelaide and Melbourne have a steadier cycles. Brisbane is something in between. I am simply leveraging my knowledge of these cycles.

This time I will be looking for 6-8 properties but fewer as I plan to ride out into the sunset....soonish

 

I need a forever home. In Melbourne. I’ll go a suburb I like with a b grade and renovate it gradually. Just leaving the other stuff as I don’t owe on it really.

 

Then why differentiate markets and their respective risks at all if its all just splitting hairs?

Biggest drops imo will be in oversupplied areas where stock levels are too high for demand. Also the 2.5+mil price points will have some opportunity. Do I see any 'crashes' in most of those markets? No.

 

1. I was pointing out that you were shifting your numbers.
2. What % do you classify as a crash?
3. I think we can all agree overpriced and oversupplyed areas will drop the most. Any specific suburbs / area you are thinking?

 

No arguments there. I think in time there will be some real opportunity, but not through a crash per se, just specific markets and stock types correcting/pulling back.

Agree further patience is the best move atm. How to capitalise..well I agree with you probably best sell (some) stock to free up equity/borrowing power, reduce risk and buy value add deals. I am watching a certain market in the East like a hawk. Waiting for prices to retract then get in and add some value. Double whammy of buying what I believe to be below long term market value, then adding more value. Then when the market takes off again (certainly will) your next notch up in fortune will boost you even higher.

 

No idea what that means.

40%ish give or take a little from the peak.

You'll be the first to know after I've done my buying.

 

Just that you changed from taking about within 45 km and changed to 40. And from 30% drops to focusing on closer to 40%.

But mostly I just felt your general tone has gotten less confident throughout this thread.

From basically “where are the crashing markets, I don’t see them / sure at max the worst will be 5-15%” to “some areas will come off and I will look to buy if they do”

It seems we are all impacted by the media and general sentiment

 

I am also watching the East through the next stage of the cycle.
We made life changing capital gain in the East this boom cycle and will be looking at a similar strategy again. However I am seeing the opportunities being further out. More life 4-5 years(or longer). My reasons are based on previous cycles, debt levels, interest rates(eventually rising), low wage growth.

Why do you think it will be as soon as within 2 years?

 

You need to read my first post slower.

 

No crystal ball of course, and I am talking about specific markets I am watching where I can add value. With a pure Buy and Hold approach I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy atm. More potential upside if you wait.

 

I would say ever 30%from peak is a 'crash' but I guess its just now one defines it but one third value list is pretty heavy

 

20 per cent is considered a crash technically.

 

Mate. 30% is def a crash in my opinion. 30% down is more than 40% gains

1mil + 40% = 1.4mil
1.4mil - 30% = .98 mil.

40% is a bloodbath. 1mil + 50% = 1.5
1.5 - 40% is .9 and you still down.

At 40 you had better be flying to survive and would want to have had 70% gains everywhere.

20% is full panic area for most leveraged people.

 

Also psychologically there are different pain tolerance points for ppl who got in at different times. Buying at 600k then seeing it go to 1.2m then pull back to 950k isn't anywhere as painful as buying at 1.1m.