When will the next rate cut(s) occur?

My money is 80% chance of a cut in Feb 2016.

20% chance for Dec 2015.

Jan is out as the RBA does not meet in Jan....

Why? The RBA knows that inflation is now contained..but they also want to ensure that the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have no chance of galloping away again. My personal feel is once they read the numbers post Xmas...they will cut by 25 basis points in Feb.

If the news gets really bad dramatically in late Nov. then there is a 20% chance of a cut in Dec.

 

"RBA governor Glenn Stevens says any near-term change in official interest rates would almost certainly be a cut, but expressed growing confidence that such a move wouldn't be needed."

Read more: Financial Review - Business, Finance and Investment News | afr.com

In other words, we're in low rates for much longer.

UBS analysts say the "neutral" cash rate has moved to 3% (currently 2%) and most probably if rates are hiked it won't be by more than 1%.

 

I voted they will stay the same,then rise next year..

Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony—Recap

 

Im going to change my opinion (is that against forum rules?).
Given recent events no rate change until at least mid 2016. RBA will want to 'wait and see'

Blacky

 

Imo, the safest place for the RBA remains "on the fence".

(Whether they actually do that, I don't know).

It wasn't that long ago I believe the RBA had a tightening bias (ie - steady as she goes, but if they did make a move it would have been up).

Now it is clearly an easing bias - but it's certainly far from a done deal that the next move is down.

If the Fed moves the game changes and a lot of the RBA's work will have been done for it.

I reckon there would be few things more embarrassing for a central bank than to make a move (lets say down) only to quite possibly reverse that move shortly after - and that is the situation they could well find themselves in should they cut prematurely.

 

Definitely no rate cuts soon after the unexpected strong jobs report 30 mins ago.

 

Sub 6%. where did that come from? I guess, as with any indicative metric its quite easy to "manipulate"

 

I believe I saw a lift in consumer confidence in the last couple of days too.

 

Interesting reading todays job data. 58,000 new jobs created in October, dropping unemployment by .3%. The highest gain since 2012.

Not sure where that came from...

Blacky

 

The ABS unemployment series is notoriously volatile and unreliable.

Westpac says take it with a molecule of salt.

 

Obviously employers are so impressed with big mal that they're confident about the future and rushed out to increase their work force .

Yes ... Seriously

Cliff

 

the TURNBULL effect?

Sounds more of the same with what happened in July where we had a jump of 38,500 new jobs and yet the unemployment rate went up. ABS must have miscalculated again.

Byebye rate cut. Hello further rate rises and $$ for the banks.

 

Double edge sword

If economy goes well with lots of job growth , gives more scope for property price rises

 

well that would only be if the underlying jobs growth goes with wage growth? Otherwise it'd be just creating a lot of low paying jobs which would not help much with affordability for FHBs.

Those tourism sector jobs sure as hell ain't gonna pay as much as mining sector jobs.

 

Maybe it's all the Christmas holiday hires?

 

It's called "seasonally adjusted" unemployment rate, for a reason.

 

You are hearing it first from me... next rate cut is in December.

 

I doubt it.
The next move could be UP. But only if inflation rears its ugly head. If inflation is stable, there will be no rate moves.

Looks like the southeastern states (where most people live) are doing just fine. WA can bugger off (the RBA had the same attitude to non-mining states during the mining boom -- they hiked rates despite the slow NSW and Vic economies at that time.)

We have LNG exports coming up in 2016-17, it's gonna make our GDP grow "above trend".

 

Not a chance

 

There is speculation that the US will raise rates come December. Wouldn't it be interesting to seeing how the stock market reacts to Australia doing the reverse.

Though have to agree with lynchy. It would be fun to see happen.....but don't think so.