What will happen to shares with Trump as POTUS?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by wylie, 14th Nov, 2016.

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  1. wategos

    wategos Well-Known Member

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    You posted a video of Trumps reaction so thought you would know.... it was not about the election interference, it was about secret collaboration between Trump people and the Russians, and some bedroom antics of his there. Probably false (although some historically reliable Intel agents were involved), but look at how hysterical and ballistic the man-child Trump goes after getting a single story against him after supporting all the fake news against Clinton and Obama for months.

    3. Fake news propagated from the right and Russia. Even Trump now admits this happened, they must have given him some pretty good Intel last week, maybe they´ve got a bug in Vlads boardroom or something, obviously can´t tell the public but Trump himself now accepts it happened.
    4. Electoral college system that gives the vote of someone in Wyoming 4 times the weight of someone in California or New York. How screwed up is that.


    It is the case that millions of jobs have been created, no "ifs" about it. Deficit is not higher, declined for many years under Obama, facts are distorted by including figures from first couple of years of presidency when massive bailouts were performed after the GFC (which started before Obama). Re food stamps public policy was widened to enable more people to claim them, plus there were a couple of national disasters. The employment rate wasn't going down. More Hannity lies, Why to you listen to this propagandist ?
    Also the share market has gone up massively in the last six year of Obama, what are you on about ? Nothing to do with Trumpty Dumpty..
     
  2. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Which groups?
    Jews?, Gays?, Buddhists?, Hindus, blacks?, women?, Christians?, Catholics?

    Here's one; BLM started only since Nov 8, 2016? There's a terrific hate crime crowd for ya.
    Here's another; over 3000 shootings in Chicago alone last year? Mostly black versus black.

    Yeah; all Trump's fault for "hate crimes".

    Or maybe it is actually the fault of the people who perpetrated them...they chose to behave that way when they actually didn't have to, and not Trump?

    You forgot cops; they are a minority group...at least a couple of them get killed per week in the USA...and it has been this way for a number of years....Trump is the catalyst for all that?

    Now; there's a reality check.
     
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  3. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Not unreasonable to switch to a conservative option anyway - the difference between this and aggressive is slight. Any major upset will likely be temporary anyway, look at the ups and downs over the history of the ASX, it all levels out to a gradual rise.
     
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  4. Francesco

    Francesco Well-Known Member

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    The rule of the game is electoral college in the US, reflecting its Constitution. The election was won on that basis, so it is lame to whine about that. Australia has its quirks too, eg consider the make up of the Senate and what it does for Tasmania and how it gives it leverage to command a higher fiscal distribution than otherwise. Constitution quirks or screw ups to some are intentional and over time can appear skewed, but whatever, whoever wins by the rules is the legitimate President.

    I agree there can be positives under Obama. See CNN for hightlighting the pros:

    The Obama economy in 10 charts

    But even CNN shows that debt has increased to get the economic growth under Obama. Annual deficits have reduced but that is a combination of fiscal and monetary policies under Bernanke and Yellen. CNN shows that the Obama gains have been at the deterioration of lower and middle class income levels and food stamps were issued at a high level. As in the case of Brexit, this is just scratching the ice berg of areas of discontent of the middle class.

    With all the fiscal (through debt) and monetary expansion (QE) under Obama and the recent Fed Reserves, share markets are bound to expand. Easy money and credit plus corporate financial manipulation to light up the stock exchange. Obama cannot take too much credit for sharemarket health under his watch.

    The market initially thought that Trump would wreck financial stability (eg with reckless trade wars), swallowing the gloom spin of anti Trump media during the electoral hustings. Since then the stock market has woken up and reversed the initially slide to back the recent increase in the sharemarket post electoral win of Trump. So, the recent increase in the sharemarket can be attributed to Trump's negotiations and pronouncements.
     
  5. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    It has been the system they have used since Day 1.

    Hillary polled more "popular" votes than Obama back in '08...not a murmur about the College system back then.

    Let me guess; the Left were delirious because they had both a woman and a black man candidate; so they couldn't lose the "minority group" win, right? :rolleyes:

    I have no doubt a woman will someday be President - and that's fine - but hopefully one who has already done great things for the Country, and as President will do a good job - and not just voted in because she is a woman.

    We have too much of that PC rubbish all over the world now....vote/appoint these "minority" gestures on their merits, thanks.
     
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  6. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Really? You still haven't described what a far right person is/does yet.

    I'm starting to believe that anyone who is not of your view is "far" right...not just Right. That is ridiculous.

    If being young; fit, health conscious, well presented, hard working and an achiever, a good career, passionate about her Country and vocal towards anyone who would tear it down, or cry and moan for weeks on end about an Election result they can't come to terms with...

    Then far right is ok by me.
     
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  7. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    I've already covered this, but might need to be readdressed;

    First; put aside Ivanka's connection to her father...she is a businesswoman irrespective of what her father is doing or will do.

    In fact; just call her Corporation X.

    Ivanka - and Carrier - have been in business long before Trump's pledge to decrease Company tax.

    So; the difference between them is zero in actual fact...but you and several other anti-Trump people have zeroed in on her as some sort of hypocrite because she operates outside the USA, while her Dad is espousing that everyone should move and/or stay in the USA..

    Trump's pledge is to try to both encourage USA Companies and Corporations to rethink moving their operations outside the USA to avoid punitive tax laws etc, and/or to encourage those who are already operating outside of the USA to move back into the USA...

    Carrier has stated they will rethink a decision to move some of their operation outside the USA.

    Ivanka is already operating outside of the USA (as is Carrier), but will obviously look at relocating some or all of her operation back to the USA after the new tax laws are implemented.
     
  8. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  9. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Interestingly, that article does state that a rise in protectionism could undermine economic momentum (which is what I was trying to say in an earlier post, though I couldn't say it as concisely). This could well make the US less competitive in non US markets.

    It also states that their forecast growth for the US will still be behind the world economic growth.
     
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  10. trinity168

    trinity168 Well-Known Member

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  11. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    It could well go that way,but what timeframe do you focus on as we are going into the 8-9 gfc mach 1 year range when most equity markets implodeduring that period then with all the free broker reports financial newspapers investment magazines that people read thinking it's easy money are maybe in for a sudden shock..
     
  12. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    It's interesting to see the unpredictability of the currency.

    Trump said two days ago that the US currency was too high, making trade uncompetitive. He is probably right. It has risen a lot since his election.

    A strong dollar makes it harder to bring back businesses into the US. There are indications that the move of manufacturing to Mexico is getting stronger following the weaker peso.
    Dollar Slumps After Trump Says Currency Strength ‘Killing Us’

    Now the US $ is rallying after the fed reserve chair, Yellen, predicted a series of rate rises coming up. However there is the likelihood that Trump will replace Yellen with people who support his views when she retires in December.

    Meanwhile, economics Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller is predicting a boom for a while, then the possibility of a huge crash.
     
  13. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Shiller has a lot of good books that match his strategy to the market ,and if there are several interest rates hikes on the way as that seems to be way then what will happen to the interest rates in Australia..
    Books by Robert J. Shiller
     
  14. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  15. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I know it's off topic - but when I tried to set up another Trump thread it was deleted. To many Trumps already.

    Interesting to watch as already his government is already starting to implode.

    The entire senior level of the State Department (diplomatic corps) has resigned - scientists from major departments are refusing to be gagged and have set up rouge accounts NASA, EPA, FDA, USParks, HHS, USDA - leaked memos, passwords accidentally publicly tweeted, hacker showing @potus account linked to private email ...

    ... and we're barely a week in.
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  17. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Off topic again ... and I know I'm not real good at math ... but, surely when you charge 20% import tariff on goods imported into the country (so instead of something costing $1, it now costs $1.20), and then use that 20% to build a wall, then it is the people buying those good in the importing country that is paying for the wall ... not the exporting country.
     
  18. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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  19. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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  20. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    It's complicated.

    The Mexican peso has declined 20% against the USD. So a 20% tax would only bring back imports into the US at the same cost as previously, all else being equal.

    I'm not sure if the proposal replaces the suggestion which has been previously raised to tax all imports by 15%, or if that's in addition to that.

    But that 20% decline is causing some big problems in Mexico. There's a lot of people who are not very well off.

    Petrol prices have gone up 20% in Mexico- even though Mexico produces oil, and sends it to the US to be refined. This increase has been through government action, and will impact many other prices. There's been some big demonstrations in Mexico.

    But even if there were no currency shifts- it's a highly complex thing. The price would be affected by demand. If you could sell 100 Mexican made cars at $X, how many would you sell if the price was $1.2X? That would depend on what other cars were available, for what price.

    If those cars were now made in the US instead of Mexico, how would that impact the market?

    Now Mexico might decide that they couldn't sell many cars to the US, but suddenly their cars have a big price advantage over US made cars sold in other countries. Perhaps then they have a new or expanding market in Latin America. Ford would probably still make Fords in Mexico for the non US market, and only produce cars in the US for the US market.

    Now that there's a 20% duty on goods going into the US, do you think that Mexico would let US goods into Mexico without duty? They import a lot of parts from the US to make the cars, so those parts become more expensive...

    etc etc etc

    Hence, "It's complicated".
     
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  21. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Yep - no one wins
     
  22. wategos

    wategos Well-Known Member

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    Yes the US consumers will pay the tax for the wall, not Mexico. Higher taxes on imports from countries will cause prices to rise, consumers will have less money to buy other stuff, less demand, less jobs. A lot of the manufacturing jobs lost in the past didn´t go overseas anyway, they went to robots, those jobs aren´t coming back.

    Trumps protectionism is going to destroy a lot of US jobs, but the liar-in-chief will claim the opposite even when confronted with facts.
    How Trump's Protectionism Would Destroy Auto Industry Jobs, Not Create Them
     
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  23. wategos

    wategos Well-Known Member

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    It´s not fake at all, media reports give the full story how these dept heads leave normally, they are just going a bit faster than normal. Show me one claiming otherwise.

    The term "fake news" doesn't refer to the "main stream media" (only in Trumps small mind, he has tried to twist the meaning of the term). It refers to the proliferation of fake stores on social media to spread false rumours. The overwhelming majority of the fake stories are pro-Trump. Fake news helped him hugely.
     
  24. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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  25. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Apparently a lot of options contracts expired today as well.

    One day isn't enough to draw any conclusions.

    Having said that- people are worried that the Obamacare legislation won't get through, and if that doesn't pass, they are worried about the infrastructure spend failing too.
     
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