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What is Really Happening Around The States??

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by MTR, 26th Aug, 2016.

  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    The Sydney property boom is over, but its fundamentals are still strong and after a slight retracement at the beginning of the year, Sydney’s price growth has resumed at a much more sustainable level:
    (report compiled by M Yardney)



    [​IMG]

    The Melbourne property market performed strongly over the last 12 months, but this year capital growth has slowed to a more sustainable level.

    Strong population growth (around 1.8% per annum) and a relatively strong economy creating more jobs have underpinned the Melbourne property market.

    [​IMG]

    Brisbane’s property market has confounded those “hot spotters” who were predicting it to be the place to be this year.

    While overall growth has slowed a little, the Brisbane market is very fragmented and there are still some areas that are performing respectably and have good investment prospects.

    [​IMG]

    Adelaide property values increased a respectable 4.8% over the last year, finally playing a little catch up.

    The little flurry Adelaide experienced at the beginning of the year seems to have run its course and house prices have only increased 9.9% over the last five years.

    [​IMG]

    The Perth property market is still in its slump phase with a significant oversupply of properties for sale and values still falling.

    Similarly the oversupply of rental properties in Perth is causing rents to fall.

    I believe there is still some downside to the Perth market as it works its way through the excesses of the mining boom:

    [​IMG]

    Similarly there are few growth drivers for Hobart property prices, and even though some commentators are suggesting it’s a good place to invest “because it has to catch up”, however with minimal population growth and slow economic growth there seems little reason for property values in Hobart to grow substantially.

    While Hobart property values are 6.2% higher than 12 months ago, Hobart has underperformed over the last decade with property prices only increasing 15.5% over the last 10 years.

    [​IMG]

    Darwin property values are 7.6% lower than they were 12 months ago, and like Perth, I believe there is more down side yet to come.

    [​IMG]

    The Canberra property market was destabilised by political uncertainty, but now the federal election has been and gone, yet the Canberra remains slow:

    [​IMG]
     
  2. CatCafe

    CatCafe Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing!
     
  3. ATANG

    ATANG Well-Known Member

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    Good to know. It's all about Melbourne... sadly.
     
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Immigration is saving Melbourne's bacon at the moment and drop in interest rates also assisting.

    Lets not ignore that the smart money has already taken their profits or accessed equity and moved on to other markets that are moving.

    Brisbane is fragmented market this is why no one seems to know what is happening, my guess is you must be buying in areas that are already trending up, perhaps tightly held areas??where there is demand? but I am no expert with Brissy??

    I guess the best way to make money is not to ignore what is happening and jump in where the opportunities present for growth, however this is clearly slowing down.

    .. and of course don't buy in Perth or Darwin, its a falling market and no signs of improving .... because we need jobs and it aint happening any time soon.
     
    Last edited: 26th Aug, 2016
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  5. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    So, with the exception of Syd and Mel everything else is moving nowhere. You'll get more profit in keeping money in a bank deposit. :(
     
  6. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    @barnes or on #4 in the 3rd at Flemington
     
  7. devank

    devank Look, lets just get on with this, ok? Premium Member

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    MY's business focus in bluechip areas close to major CBD. He will always talk up these areas than what it is. Nothing wrong with this for long term. Yield is crap in the short to medium term.. that's all.
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    not necessarily, look at tightly held areas in Brissy and Tassie.

    I still like Broady, Dallas - Melb, deve site.
     
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  9. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I agree.

    however.....with due respect these graphs/outcome has nothing whatsoever to do with blue chip areas, but current market conditions and what is happening in each State.
     
    Last edited: 26th Aug, 2016
  10. eskander

    eskander Well-Known Member

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    Not necessarily true @barnes, plenty of people have made decent equity gains in Adelaide doing renovations and subdividing. Have a read of some of the Adelaide threads :)
     
  11. barnes

    barnes Well-Known Member

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    That's the key word "renovations and subdividing". And what if you don't want to do renovations and subdividing? Buy and hold doesn't work anymore, that's what I'm saying.
     
  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    there will always be opportunities to add value

    however if your trend is your friend...I know cheesy....but it is far easier to make money, try doing it the other way tough call.

    Perth market for example I don't know anyone taking equity/profits off the table, unless it's one of those desk top valuations and we know they are Clayton valuations
    ..all to their own
     
    Last edited: 26th Aug, 2016
  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    i
    also investors that do this in flat markets generally can not sell because buying and exiting fees are too costly and your profits will be wiped off

    @Taku Ekanayake is doing well with his strategy, adding value, Brissy market, some desktop and some bank valuations, it's working well for him
     
    Last edited: 26th Aug, 2016
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I also know investors who are offloading in Adelaide due to long term poor performance

    Of course there will always be those that do something outside the square, but lets face it most investors hold for growth, and Adelaide has been lack lustre
     
    Last edited: 26th Aug, 2016
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  15. Brady

    Brady Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. I write around 125 investment loans a year of these majority would be Adelaide properties, most of these clients have done this through equity gains in existing Adelaide property. Yes some are from previous years gains, but there are a lot that have purchase in Adelaide, extracted equity and bought again with 1-3 years. This is not word of mouth, this is loans written valuations completed.

    This is not what I'm seeing for the most. Most are extracting equity. Those that have seen limited growth have bought into the wrong area. Area's that aren't limited by supply, new estates on the fridges. These properties were heavily targeted to interstate investors and the mum and dad type.

    Check my posts over the last 12-24 months about Ingle Farm - I suggested that area time and time again on here/SS. Unfortuatnely I didn't even buy myself as wasn't able to at the time. They were previously all $250-300k now it's all $300-350k+
     
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  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Nice to get some feedback, I am well aware that many investors are buying in the wrong areas purely based on yield....this is why some investors I know are offloading

    I will check out your posts:)
     
  17. ATANG

    ATANG Well-Known Member

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    Is Melb really slowing?..... I still see crazy prices and high clearance rates.

    Wouldn't it be a good time to get a bargain in Perth now?
     
  18. Cactus

    Cactus Well-Known Member

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    Bloody developers... Even subdividing fridges. :)
     
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  19. DaveM

    DaveM Adelaide Buyers Agent & KFC Strategist Business Member

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    On the ground, I have been buying properties for clients at or below what the seller paid last boom cycle... if they bought at the peak of last boom they certainly haven't made any money, but like anything it is about timing, people who bought after the last boom can sell now and make some decent money.

    Plenty of suburbs in Adelaide where B&H works just fine, they just arent the bottom feeding end.
     
  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Melb is still a very strong market, but growth was stronger in 2015, nonetheless many areas still in demand, rising in 2016, has strong fundamentals which have been mentioned before

    Perth - Time to buy is when it makes sense, nothing makes sense in Perth at the moment,

    Its a falling market, we could see further 10% falls in Perth market over next 12 months who knows? there is an oversupply of rentals not just stock. There has been an increase of 40% more stock on the market from last year which will likely drive prices down. I live in Perth I am not going to paint a rosey picture I would rather be honest so no one gets burnt
     
    Last edited: 26th Aug, 2016
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