What happens if Hong Kong gets invaded?

First up....my solem respects to anyone directly affected by the crisis in Hong Kong.


But for the rest of the world....what happens if China gets fed up and sends the troops in?

We're 24 weeks into unrest.

Something, at some point will have to give.

Anyone got any ideas on what that'll be?

Does this have the potential to be a "black swan"?

 

Like parents "invading" a teenager's room so to speak? Invasion is probably not the right word given that HK is part of China. Any interventions should be brief just to maintain order for certain period. Once the protests subside, they would hope that things will go back to normal. There will certainly be lot of outcries and growing financial implications if the army stays there for longer than they should and certainly bad for business for China and HK as China has benefited enormously from the independent system that is in place in HK.

 

Technically China wouldn't be "invading" its own territory. The will be restoring law and order according to their media. Barricades and vandalism, violence and fires with looting is beyond the protests which initiated things.

The media attention is probably the thing that has prevented it so far. It suggests that if they do roll vehicles into HK they will likely be well monitored except for law breakers who may be rounded up and disappear from view. Thats a worry which would incite response from world leaders like trump who loves to fire off a harsh twitter.

 

A mass exodus of Hong Kong citizens to the UK, Australia, Canada, USA etc.

 

Many I speak with are already initiating these plans. I would imagine a first world refugee crisis will emerge and impact flight arrivals. The modern day boat person will fly business on Cathay

 

Plus capital flight, some of which would likely make its way to Australia, including real estate.

 

Wrong choice of words - Invaded.
Would Australian government even put up with looters and riot like this?
I don't think so - law and order would of happened a long time ago.
Just like other places protest riot restoration going on around the world.
France
Chile
Iraq
Argentina

 

Maybe not a black swan as the build up is still taking place ..

 

Other factor to consider is the safety of Asian ‘foreigners’ and anyone that opposes the protests. Mainlanders and other asians could abandon the territory out of fear of being targeted. Any exodus is not good for the HK economy.

China is between the rock and a hard place, with a poor record on human rights bringing troops in will only be seen negatively by the rest of the world. To let the unrest continue or cave to demands they run the risk of unrest growing and spreading to other parts of China.

 

i don't think china cares what the rest of the world thinks... or does ...same goes for russia & US ... those 3 can do anything they like...no one can stop them.

 

Or maybe more like the teenagers invading the parents room ....

 

Likely heavily edited to show the girl outwitting the crowd but she raises many valid points.

Public beatings, burnings, disruption of services and vandalism are things that we would be crying out for our police to put an end to if it occurred here yet for the most part our media is closer to celebrating the unrest in HK than denouncing it.

Saw a few media reports today showing a man being shot by police yet they deemed the man burned by protesters was too graphic to show. I can imagine mainland China media would have this reversed with the man burned being the main focus of the news. As outsiders it is so hard to truly have any idea of what is really going on on the streets of HK. We can only hope for all involved that a satisfactory solution is reached and the city can move to heal.

 

Crux of the issue is the return of taiwan to china hence beijings delay in restoring order. Any aggressive moves will.make it so much harder for them to convince taiwan to reunite with china, under a one country two systems kind of framework.

 

Australia sees rush of Hong Kong millionaires amid unrest

Hong Kong unrest sees residents look to Australian property safe haven

More Hongkongers look to move to Australia amid growing political unrest

Aust a top destination for HK exodus

 

Their average apartment price is our prime Sydney waterfront price. That's part of the problem, the government was too business focused that they neglected the average citizens... It's a capitalist society to the extreme.

 

Yes it may well have been set-up that way but that was in Germany ,but in the wild west of Asia and thinking back to the Asian financial crisis in 1998 ..Most media thought that the tanks would have been called in and start a even bigger out of control problem but i think China would know full well with the amount of businesses that are leaving H-K over the past six months that their greatest strength is strategy ..

 

It is their own citizens - Rich vs Poor
Yet the protest is against China ruling.
Talk about brain washing at their best. WTF moment.

 

ABC news this morning did show some footage of the man who was burned . They showed him having petrol poured over him by a demonstrator and then it changed to an image of "something " burning on the floor . Assuming that was him , I wouldn't expect him to survive . They didn't replay in on subsequent bulletins . I expect they had multiple complaints about what they did show .....

At that point any moral high ground the protesters might have held went out the window .

If there was a similar incident IN ANY WESTERN COUNTRY , everyone would expect the authorities to take any reasonable action to bring the protesters to order .

It is now not a matter of if , but when the mainland move in with troops .

Cliff

 

"while a man who confronted protesters after they vandalized a subway station was doused with lighter fluid and set on fire"
China Market Update: Alibaba’s Sales Bonanza, Hong Kong Violence
I don't think any country would tolerate this kinda behaviour...