What comes next?

If not insider info, The same data is available across the world for hundreds if not thousands of trading companies and institutions to analyze. The vast majority would have supreme man power, more advance tools and processes compare any single individuals. You will find that the share prices for a given company is already reflecting all of its known opportunities and risks. You as an individual are unlikely to find any ”hidden” value that others have not explored. I've known a few who like you thinks they can beat the system, yet after a few years, they became jaded and perform worst than the general passive investors. most just became passive share investors or property investors instead.

 

the same individual could have also brought Nokia, BlackBerry or Nortel shares. Which horse are you going you pick in Melbourne cup btw. Maybe I should pick it in hindsight that way I can't lose hahaha

 

So if those those powerful firms have the best tools available, why those predictions often don't match the reality and prices often drop or rise after earning releases? As I said, it's not enough to be good analyst. You need to use that product. You need to build (or participate) that product. You need to monitor its performance in real time, not just read online report that everyone already knows.

Even analysts often give opposite predictions. This is not because of lack of data or because they guess. It is because some data is just noise, some data is incorrect or irrelevant, and only experts in those products can say which is most important.

 

Not interested to invest any cent in things that I don't control

 

and on shares you could? if that's the case, you must be a big share holder.

 

Sorry for my "French", not in the meaning to influence but in the meaning to know / predict (to some extent) in advance in which direction it will go further.

Re your previous post: same individual can buy also blackberry & nokia only if they don't understand the difference between brands. Do you think it's pure luck that Apple / Google succeeded and it couldn't be predicted having available information at that time?

 

@AlexV_Sydney I suppose you have lots of Apple shares or the like then? If you are old enough, you should recall Apple did rather poorly in the 90s.
Anyone can can tell me that Apple did well in the last 10 years. If you have held a substantial share in the company for the last 10 years then I say you are extremely lucky or a genius.

 

I think it is ok to buy in the peak or pay over market for the correct property than not buy at all (obliviously it is better to buy in the low or under pay given the choice !)

 

I sold one in 2015. I did well and I reckon the buyer did well. Not biased

 

Yes they almost went under till microsoft stepped in to help out, the irony. They were lucky steve jobs came back for a last hurrah and managed to break into the chinese market in a big way.

 

You have to compare ur 25% gain on purchase price to stocks as u need to factor in the massive leverage available for property investing. Ur 200% gain would have easily been a 200% loss depending on market direction.

Its been shown over longer time frames there has been not much difference investing in stocks or property , assuming no leverage was used. They all tend to more or less track gdp growth if u dont include compounded returns on dividend reinvestment.

 

One of the major advantages in property investment is leverage. If you want to take it out from the comparison, it does not make sense anymore. I do not think anyone wants to invest in RE with cash only. Like I need to take into account expensive transactional costs of property investment such as stamp duty, selling fees into account while share has much smaller associated cost. Again, I do not say that property is better than share or vice versa. My post just shows an example when resi property investment gives me a healthy return that I believe I cannot achieve through share (because I am not good at share investment) during the time that a lot of people said I should not invest in RE.

 

Actually buying at the very peak should be a big deal for investors and not something to take lightly imho. If you buy at the very peak, for a 30% drop for example, you would need to make back 43% just to 'break even'!. And that's not counting any other holding cost expenses at all. This is how so many people get burnt.

 

I disagree again.
Hundreds of thousands of analysts in the world. A small % work for themselves. Many people don’t want to work for themselves, and to invest in the most complex things you wouldn’t be able to work on your own because you wouldn’t have sufficient capital, licensing, etc. But even assuming you are right and the best of the best work for themselves - if we take the other, I don’t know - 500,000 globally? You think you are better than 95%? Because studies show 95% of stock pickers can’t beat the index over a 10 year period. My brothers boss ran a book of 100mil. That’s big clams in Australia. He still thought he was basically guessing.

Sure some people bought apple in 09. They also bought Telstra or bhp, both or which havnt done nearly as well. (Havnt looked recently, but excluding dividends both could be down)

To be honest if you can get 20% a year quit property investment and just do stock. You should also run your own money. Since you would be in the top 0.01% of investors. Madoff didn’t even do that well and his number were made up.

 

Why not? Someone always is in top 5%, someone always is in top 1% and someone always is in bottom 5%

I don't see any problems to be in top. Maybe it is impossible to be in top in everything, but to assess your weaknesses and strengths, and focus on development of skills in which you're strong - is achievable for many people.

I was top student in primary/high school and university in many subjects, but was average in many others and below average in some. I won multiple country/state competitions, but I was struggling with other things. I'm very good in some sports, but at bottom in other sports. The products I produce and sell are in top 5 (not percent) out of 1K+ in their area in US, UK and some other countries, however not in Australia. I don't need actually to work, but I work (because I like it) and the salary is in top 1-3% per industry, but it was below average when I lived in another country and when I performed what wasn't my strength

This is a key to success - find your strength and develop / use it. Other people make mistakes (for their kids and themselves) - they identify weaknesses and spend almost all energy to improve it. As a result - average skills in everything

As Leo said - everything is in your mind

 

It is also my personal belief that the %age of individual stock traders who are able to consistently outperform the market/index and do very well over a longer term period is miniscule .

I'm an avid reader of all the great stock traders and most of them basically say the same thing. I read about them to constantly remind myself not to waste my time and money trying to make it big with stock trading . If someone else thinks they can succeed, more power to them.

 

but you should know that apple phone sales has been consistently dropping with every release, ipad is pretty much dead, itunes been beaten to shitz by netflix and spotify.
the reason they are doing well is because of their pricing power, apple is actually pretty well prices based on their profits, if anyone tell you they have gone up because of sales numbers is lying.

thats whys he is an analyst not a fund manager. different responsibility. also now days fund managers are so short term due to their fee structure. so your brother is right, because of their shorterm-ism, its really a hit and hope at times.

no offence, 100m is really small clams.

if u walk in to banks like westpac, their highnetworth individual = 20m invest-able wealth (a penny les u dont get to play with the big boys), they only need 5 customer to crush your brother's firm.

also there is allot, and i do mean allot of fund managers in australia, our super due to regulations are massive, banks are massive, and private fund managers like magellen hold $300m in apple shares alone, that's 3x your brother's total fund.

yes these are big fish, your brother is more of a clam then you are right.
its really not that much.

 

??? where did you get that data?

Q3 2018 - official release
iphone YoY: +1% units, +20% revenue
ipad YoY: + 1% units, -5% revenue

For Q2 2018, iphone units YoY: +2.88%

 

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

financial times legit enough for you ?

if thats behind a paywall.

here are some olders one
Apple sales suffer rare holiday drop amid iPhone X concerns
Apple reports third consecutive quarterly decline as iPhone sales continue to slow

verge is on 2016
ft is on 2018.
cnet 2018.

everything i said
sales drop, but apple is all about pricing power.

i quote year on year,
you looked at a single quarter

do apple release new phones yearly or quarterly ?