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What can you read into two graphs?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Bran, 8th Jan, 2016.

  1. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Maybe we could read as much into a set of tea leaves, but I'm just interested, purely for the exercise, as to what people would surmise from this limited information, and this information only. I'm not going to reveal anything else about the suburb, except that it is in SEQ.

    I ask because I definitely interpret it in a certain way, but thinking critically, this is clearly biased by my knowledge and feelings on the suburb in question, and as such, I am incorporating these influences into my interpretation of the graph.

    So, completely blind and devoid of external influence, what do you guys think?

    Screen Shot 2016-01-08 at 6.48.21 pm.png
     

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    Last edited: 8th Jan, 2016
  2. Propertunity

    Propertunity Exclusive Real Estate Buyers Agent Business Member

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    With the houses you have rising prices on falling sales volume. With the units you have flattening prices on increasing sales volume.
     
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  3. sandyfeet

    sandyfeet Well-Known Member

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    Interesting... Not sure exactly what input your looking for, but... My first thought is that the price of units loosely correlates with the number of sales, which may seem fine if we only consider those two variables. Then I look at the house price vs sales in the same manner and initially think how can that be? (applying the same logic as units)

    Probably lots of reasons, my first thought could be steady supply of units vs low supply of houses as sales dip but prices rise
     
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  4. ZOMG

    ZOMG Well-Known Member

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    Might be stating the obvious but it seems median price of houses has been steadily increasing over the short term with no significant dips whilst units appear to be more volatile. Seems that houses are more price resilient in this area.

    Volume of sales seems to suggest an increase in sales of units (possibly more supply and demand?) compared to houses. Difference seems quite pronounced since 2014, possibly a big influx of OTP apartments?

    Edit: Propertunity has a good point, I didn't even relate the two graphs #fail
     
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  5. keithj

    keithj Moderator Staff Member

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    It is great to see some critical thinking, and acknowledgment of biases...... :)

    The question is to hard - there needs to be a lot more context (which you clearly have :cool:).
    I'd say that you need -
    • to see charts of surrounding areas
    • ask why have house sales fallen but prices risen - supply issues or demand issues ?
    • Is there excess unit supply ? seems a bit more volatile over the last 12+ months.
    • Flooding or weather had any influences ?
    • What happened in 2001 cycle for these & surrounding suburbs ?
    • Any local employment issues ?
    • or zoning change proposals ? maybe big house size blocks being split ?
    • 3 yrs is a heartbeat in terms of property charts
    You can really make most charts mean whatever you want to without context..... :eek:
     
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  6. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    To add to all the above comments... Interesting how the volume of house sales have apparently increased so much in the earlier years till late 2014 and have since steadily declined. I'd like an explanation for that. Is it a new suburb or an old suburb?
     
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  7. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    Cannon hill?
     
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  8. Terry_w

    Terry_w Solicitor, Finance Broker, CTA Business Member

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    An over supply of units compared to houses - might be an area with increasing numbers of units being developed

    and

    Median prices of houses is growing faster than the median prices of units.
     
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  9. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    I think if you build a mini temple in your back yard, the price will go up even more.
     
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  10. Gockie

    Gockie I'm an ISTP-A female, so I might be a bit quirky! Premium Member

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    Absolutely. :) You can't go wrong with adding a mini temple. ;)
     
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  11. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    No, I'm guessing that median would be too low!
     
  12. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Keith - these are the questions I asked myself, and then i realised that I had painted my own slant. I explained the trends as this:

    There is no reason for a lack of demand, I'm sure demand is steady/increasing, and accounts for the house prices. There is an inherent limit on supply.

    There is a low level of development, including low numbers of larger scale developments - this accounts for the units.

    Local employment is fairly stable, but is looking very likely to improve.

    I then mentally extrapolated the house price graph with an exponential curve, despite the dip, to convince myself that this trend would continue in the next 1-2-10 years. I then realised that what I was doing was horsesh1t, hence the post ;)
     
  13. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Rising house prices now at a peak or pause on falling sales volumes.
    Large increase in unit supply leading to more sales. Possibly lots of rezoning and development happening but surely house price growth would reflect this? Maybe the suburb has been influenced by a couple of large stand alone developments? Cannon Hill would fit the graph regarding unit supply but the house median is too low so I don't know where it is.
    Zillmere, keperra or somewhere in Redcliffe like Scarborough??
    No idea.
     
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  14. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    @Bran Are you going to enlighten us? I'm curious.
     
  15. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    Last time I shared the location, the suburb jumped out of reach almost overnight. First PC, then YIP. Coincidence? Lips are sealed for now.

    (PS I expect nothing astronomical, but the location has a personal non-investment component - but not enough to warrant a bad interim investment).
     
  16. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough.
     
  17. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Tightening supply in the house market leading to rising prices. Looks like increasing supply of units (probably settlements for OTP construction)
     
  18. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    my guess is woodridge.
     
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  19. meme plecko

    meme plecko Well-Known Member

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    With a house median in the high 4s? Must be a joke that I don't get... :)
     
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  20. Bran

    Bran Well-Known Member

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    The only ten year data I have. Took the typical dive post 2010, not back to its previous peak

    Screen Shot 2016-01-09 at 7.16.02 am.png

    There is also this correlation:

    Screen Shot 2016-01-09 at 7.58.10 am.png
     
    Last edited: 9th Jan, 2016