Western Sydney 2% price increase over the last quarter

I was listening to news today and they announced while property prices across the board are flat or declining, Western Sydney performed well. In a flat market, 2% increase is impressive!

I have always viewed Western Sydney as the safest bet in property market in the entire country. Given it has access to the larger Sydney job market as well as universities with the added benefit of all the projects that are happening in and around Parramatta, its "the" place to be.

 

You need to get on the ground...looking at stats which are 3 mths old..is paramount to looking in rear view mirror.

Now way I would agree that the underlying trend is 2% growth and it being the safest market.

The safer (not safest market) is Brisbane, Melbourne, and Adelaide.

 

Personal opinion I suppose but I live in between inner west and Western Sydney. You might want to look into whats happening in and around Western Sydney.

I agree Melbourne is a good market, perhaps in general better than Sydney due to better life style and a reasonably buoyant job market. But I have asked this question from people that are carried away with the hype around Brisbane / Logan before and I have not received a single reasonable answer. Why Brisbane? every one says Brisbane is cheap but if we go by that logic many places are cheap.

With all due respect, Brisbane has a broke economy, headed in the exact same path as Perth right now (if not much worse), half the properties are flood listed and will be like that for decades, there is no major project on the ground taking off, the government is completely broke, it's main economy which is mining is being shut down.

Sure it will have some very small growth due to low interest rates right now and the perception of compulsive buyers who think because they cant afford in Sydney they MUST buy somewhere else and that somewhere else is Brisbane. But where is it going to go from here?

 

Agreed about Melbourne.

As for Brissie...when was the last time you went to Brissie? I am in agreement about Logan as it is mostly southern money...but in other parts it is local driven. The job market has stabilised and now tracking nicely. Agree that it won't repeat a Sydney growth pattern.

As for Sydney...it is on the down.....no question here....

 

Good pt sash

 

Tenex, i agree that there is a lot of noise especially brisbane. . However, in that noise is also the answers to your question on why bn -covering all your points from flood prone properties to the jobs market to construction projects happening..I agree it may not be summed up nicely in one post. Rather distributed across many posts and to a degree thats the nature of online forums where many people have their say -often with a fair dose of both noise and wisdom.
And as @sash implied, its probably more obvious to the the ones on the ground as we can see whats happening with construction, jobs, population growth , levels of buyer interest, etc. ..
So far the numbers over the last 2 years have shown brisbane to deliver moderate yet steady gains- placing it in my view as a safe and steady market. Indeed various independent property publications also say the same thing eg htw, yip, propertyobserver, etc.

 

Interesting. from the Domain article we concur the same stats. We understand that stats are lagging, but interesting observation is that Sydney West was a plus while rest of Sydney was a minus for the December quarter.

All the doomslayer of Sydney west must be disapointed.

 

I dont know what stats to believe, the ones that are published or the ones that we observe. Ill atill go with what i have observed.

In gist, even west have seen a drop. At keast 5 - 7%. Is visible from the fact that suburbs near parramatta have property for more days on market, prices drops to sell properties, someone quoted you are limiting options around 600k near parramatta. I'd say the options have increased, not limiting to unit. Villas and townhouses 211, 221, 321 and 311. Some just a couple of years old.

Those who want to buy or are in process of buying, opportunity will present jtself. The trend will increase and may be the stats wont, comparatively.

Having said that, I am desperate myself to buy something around Sydney but patient enough to wait as long as it takes.

 

So basically you are saying that the stats compiled by economist Dr Andrew Wilson in yesterdays results are wrong and the truth is that the West has seen the biggest drop of all areas in Sydney with at least 5-7%?? Nobody has a crystal ball and we all have our own opinions on how the market will move but seriously- you gotta accept cold hard facts surely?

 

Hmmm, what I am saying is thst I can see a drop of more than 2 % for sure in the areas nearby parramatta.
That is the area I am targeting and tracking.

What I am saying is that this figure might be the average which is taking into account all types of areas.
There are areas where stock availability is less and are still holding so they may take up the average and vice versa.

What I am saying is that Sydney in general is dropping but I dont give a **** about it and did not mentioned at all. Please stop making assumptions and go by specifically, by what others have said.

I hope I have made the point and the cold hard facts are compiled by a human only. They can't be taken as a standard everytime. All gurus would be correct then.

Cheers

 

Hang on a minute. What you said is that The West has dropped at leat 5-7%. Im not going by what others have said- just what you said. Read what you wrote. You didnt say anything about 2% in the future, you said that the west has dropped at least 5-7% and the research points to you being about 9% wrong.

 

Mate ...what Ashish is saying is he is closely watching areas he is interested in...based on what he is saying is that the prices have come off 5-7% from the peak. This will not captured in the means and stats. That is all...this is the problem with people who rely on stats rather than boots on ground research...perhaps even street by street level detail Which is what I believe Ashish is doing by creating a spreadsheet of this in the suburbs he is interested in.

@ashish1137 ...is this what you are doing?If so that is the bullet proof method...

 

Lol thanks for the interpretation. p.s The stats only confirm my research- and it is in-line with what I have been saying for a while. You just don't like it because it disproves everything that you have been saying

 

this was the major projects/infrastructure stats on states in the papers yesterday. more projects relates to more jobs and growth in general. biggest drops are in WA and QLD.

 

stats only cover a macroeconomic view of state however ground level data or microeconomic view for suburb or even street level will give another picture for e.g. the stats for units in melbourne (statewise was only couple of percentage points) as in might inlcude th multitude of apartments victoria wide etc. However if you narrow down to certain suburbs, there are units that have been sold for 50-60% from what they were purchased a year ago. Really it is just data analysis - like corporates - you look at the earnings generated company wide however certain departments might contribute positive growth in sales where else some departments may have contributed nothing however the median sales is what is represented in the annual reports released to the market.

 

OK.....time will reveal all....a bit too premature to have this diatribe.

I counter cyclical investor...and this has worked extremely well.....the net numbers verify this for me.

I just need another $3m......and I am done...it will be more than I need for a my lifetime to live very comfortably. I should achieve this with 5 years give or take unless the entire Australian property market collapses....

 

yes correct. the analogy is right also.
Ill add that being on the ground also helps with the qualitative analysis. RE is not a fully commoditised market ( not to say those who treat it as a commodity cannot make money though)...and has a qualitative component that affects current and future price eg look n feel, curb appeal, quality of neighbours, etc...

 

Time will reveal all indeed.
Congrats on the success, hopefully I will be there in 10 years

 

I am sure you will be there in 10 years....

Just need to get to critical mass in terms of portfolio size...once you reach 3-4m...even a smal grow 5% pa growth pa translates to 150-200k in equity..why are you selling anyway?

 

I do not disagree with this at all. Although this could be said about any type of stats at all. Auction clearance rates are the same but when analyzed over a period of time they definitely tell the general story.