Wentworth by-election

The betting favours Libs, with Dave Sharma at 1.33, and Phelps at 3.5.

However, a poll yesterday gives Phelps 55% on a 2pp basis despite only having 25% of the primary vote
Independent Kerryn Phelps could be in line for Wentworth win: poll

She's certainly the most recognisable candidate in the by-election.

 

Gay in an electorate which had the third highest 'yes' vote in the recent plebiscite.

But she was already well know well before she came out.

 

In the event of Phelps winning, the coalition would have 75 out of 150 seats. However, independent Cathy McGowan has previously pledged support to Malcolm Turnbull in matters of confidence and supply.

 

I think I know this. That's why I explicitly stated his name in the undertaking she took.

I correct my previous post. The coalition has 74 seats.

However, I would suggest that she is more likely than not to support the government. In any case, there's one non government national on the cross bench and one member of Katter's Australian Party are more likely than not to support the government. I don't see anything changing before the general election.

 

I agree.

It's a move with a small upside (appealing to the 90,000 people in Australia identifying as Jewish, and a small group of those sympathetic to Israel, as well as to Trump himself) with a large downside (potentially antagonising 600,000 Muslims in Australia and a huge Muslim country immediately to the north).

I'd be surprised if those Jewish people in Wentworth wouldn't be already supporting David Sharma, a former ambassador to Israel and chairman of an Israeli company, so the gesture may be futile anyway.

 

Here we go.

Indonesia considering putting trade deal on hold over PM's Israel comments

 

Jerusalem was divided by the armistice in 1949. Israel took over East Jerusalem in the war in 1967. The Palestinians claim that East Jerusalem is their capital, and their official position is that they want it divided. The Israelis want an undivided Jerusalem.

All embassies were located in Tel Aviv after the last ones moved out of Jerusalem in 2006.

Locating an embassy in Jerusalem is an expression that that country recognises the Israeli position, ignoring the Palestinian position.

The US made a law in 1995 requiring that Jerusalem be the location of the embassy. All presidents until now have declined to allow that move.

 

I don't want to take this discussion further into Middle Eastern politics. I think it was sufficient to illustrate what the cause of the problem is; further discussion will take the thread away from the intended subject.

 

I don't know that Palestine really has much of an influence directly themselves on Australia, however, the threat of action from other Muslim nations is potentially worrying.

Palestinians warn Jerusalem shift would turn Australia into 'international pariah' and risk trade

It could well be a very expensive vote getter.