we can expect prices to rise another 15-20% over the next 18 months

Four factors - besides interest rates - that will shape the outlook for house prices | AMP Capital

Shane Oliver

great reading


ECONOMICS & MARKETS
Four factors - besides interest rates - that will shape the outlook for house prices
09 Apr, 2021

In the meantime, we can expect prices to rise another 15-20% over the next 18 months to two years, with the pace of growth slowing though 2021-22 as inflation starts to pick up and interest rate rises move back onto the agenda.

 

I could do with an extra 20%. I'll be chuffed.

 

the way its been lately i could def see another 20-25% growth. its been so strong.

 

House price predictions soar as Westpac’s consumer confidence hits 11-year high

Similar commentary on AFR around the expectations on house prices - 25%-30% 2021-2023



Credit AFR
"Economists at ANZ, NAB and Westpac all say the economy is now bigger than before the COVID-19 crisis struck, while all four of the big banks have revised their unemployment forecasts, expecting a much lower figure of 5 per cent by the end of the year."

Economy is now bigger than it was pre-covid, $100 odd billion of liquidity from gov and RBA additionally causing inflationary pressure on housing, consumer sentiment at 11 year and business sentiment at 10 year high, extra $30b in economy every 12 months as aussies can't spend overseas (Aussies spend $55b o/s & tourists spend $20b in Aus - so extra $30b channelling to consumer spending), employment levels increasing with each reporting period and IR staying this low until 2024- I expect that we will keep seeing these forecasts updated every 3 months and the 25% likely is going to end up being 30% or higher from 2021-2023 period.

 

Let's introduce @Property Baron and @Kangabanga to this thread too.

 

haha- I think Property Baron turned around and is a holder I suspect- Kangabanga has been MIA since the prop tide turned and I am glad that is the case! Way too much constant negativity and doom and non stop posts about the sky falling down!

 

Greg Jericho in The Guardian disagrees with Chris Joye.

Yes, interest rates are low. But that doesn’t mean Australian housing is getting more affordable | Housing | The Guardian

 

The relentless rise in the prices for desirable owner occupier property is not limited to Australia, my mate in Seattle says his middle class millennial colleagues many with a million dollar plus budgets are complaining that they can't buy anything decent either.

True lockout rally on a global scale.

Many looking for their "forever home" will have important decisions to make:
1. Pay way overs to secure something they truly desire
2. Move further out and/or take advantage of wfh

I dare say long term renting is no longer desirable for many in this zero rate world.

Many starting to understand that for some areas it is either buy now or be priced out altogether especially if your income isn't increasing. There is literally so much new money being made everyday especially with business and asset valuations booming compared to incomes.

 

Yes the QE strategy changed the game.

I can’t blame them, I started my investing journey just a year before GFC, I was very bearish in everything as well until 2011-2012 when Euro (Greece), Japan (Fukushima) deployed the same strategy. Then I realized that will the way of the future for developed countries cause they worked!

 

Great, I’ll be buying a tent at this rate

 

Jobless rate falls to 5.6pc as JobKeeper ends

Incredible employment data:

fin review
"Employment growth has shocked economists again with 70,700 jobs added in March pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.6 per cent from 5.8 per cent, setting up a soft landing for the end of the $90 billion JobKeeper program.

While full-time employment decreased by 20,800 to 8.87 million, part-time employment jumped 91,500 to 4.2 million people according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics."

 

wow this keeps getting better

 

Property prices: CBA CEO Matt Comyn says house prices to rise 10 per cent in 2021

Credit - AFR:
"Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn said the bank has upgraded its property price forecast for calendar 2021 on the strength of activity in February and March though he expects the breakneck speed to moderate.

Speaking at a Parliamentary hearing in Canberra, Mr Comyn said he had been surprised by the “acceleration” in property prices over the two-month period leading the bank to update its predictions.

“We were thinking 8 per cent and we are now thinking 10 per cent,” Mr Comyn said."

Like I said, these forecasts are now being updated every month! Just keep watching the pace of these new forecasts - This is CBA's 5th forecast revising numbers up in 10 months.

 

Nothing stopping you buying in liverpool/Lurnea for $640,000 for a house If in Sydney ,
if not $640,000 will get you an even better suburb other parts of the country.

You can afford this on an entry elver $65,000 per year job if saved up a deposit.

So stop whinging.

at the current rate of 1.99% OOC your interest is about $225 per week.

 

How much a week do you expect to save on $1k a week after tax in Sydney?

 

Greg Jericho would naturally disagree with any optimistic perspective. As a borderline anti-capitalist, he is employed by The Guardian specifically to counter the pro-capitalist position, as the readers of this paper would expect.

Christopher Joye naturally falls equally on the other side.

 

Not good. My Land Tax bill is already horrendously expensive. Not sure I'll be able to hold any longer if prices go up more, as rents aren't following.

 

How does Australia’s housing boom values compare with previous highs? - realestate.com.au

 

Thank you for the introduction.. I hope prices do rise champion and have never had a different view. However - when Covid19 hit the world I asked the simple question - has anyone started to see house prices begin to drop? At the time of the question, I actually had seen in my area some properties listed below there original asking price..
Maybe you are a genius and could see the impact from Covid would be the opposite to what the heads of most banking institutions were telling us at the time. I remember watching that Matt Comyn fella telling us that prices could drop by 30% at one stage.