Watching the Druie Drop in Slow Motion

Not exactly CBD, but usually 'Old Mt Druitt'. The part everyone refers to are the Housing Commission areas. They are much cheaper.

Hehe....You aint seen nuttin' yet!

We got one for $156k. Does that count? In fact, we didn't pay over $200k for any of the ones we had/have except for the ex-PPOR which is a subdividable block with 2 x 3br houses on it.

Agree! He likes to THINK he knows the area, but I bet he's never even driven through. The name, I'm guessing, is his way of further undercutting it. If he really KNEW the area, he'd have called it MOUNTY COUNTY.

Personally, I don't see prices moving down much until rates start to move. It's still easily affordable, and there's hardly any stock on the market. The Agent just up the street from me has a total of ONE house for sale. Yes, I know I'm at St Clair, not Mt Druitt, but the theme is the same. There's not a lot of stock, so it's still a sellers market.

 

Why is thr name such a big issue.. it's used for discussion purposes on this forum.

 

It suggests a lack of ignorance about the areas or a condescending attitude ... In this situation , probably both .


Cliff

 

Name change in sydney west is not tolerated.

They tried changing Blacktown to Sydney West same time last year BUT was unsuccessful

 

There was a move a few years ago to change the name of the " Old Mt Druitt " to Rupertswood ...The local member , after initially supporting the move , realized there were a lot more votes in the newer suburbs , Bidwell etc , and back tracked . Didn't get up.

Minchenbury would love to change it's post code from 2770 ...... if only for the car and house insurance rates

Cliff

 

Call it whatever they want @datto if it is making you money

I think it is all a bit academic, it is when rates are on the move in the other direction that the proof will be in the pudding.

 

Lack of or total ignorance?

 

You beat me too it!

 

Name change in sydney west is not tolerated.

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Shows the typical mentality.

 

This post we now think it will go 360-380k... while original post "As I have said before...I reckon we will see 280-350k as the norm for houses by 2019."

keep wiggling...until we get this wright...

 

Many moons.....many moons to go.......lets have the convo in 2019.

 

I think its more a matter of how long it stays flat for rather than how far it will fall (unless we have an economic shock, then look out). The rate of annual sales has now dropped to around 2012 levels so things have come off the boil now and prices will likely fall slightly but certainly stagnate soon, for a long while...

Investors were getting 5.2% on average in 2012 and now the medium yield is 3.2% - this doesn't fly anymore and when you consider half the suburb's buyers are investors, the attraction has well and truly worn off.


THIS CHART IS THE MEDIUM PRICE MOVEMENTS.

The current annual YTD sales are back to the 2012 levels. I checked this on RP Data.



YIELDS HAVE FALLEN THROUGH THE FLOOR - NOW AT 3.2% FROM 5.2% IN 2012

 

The real reason that sales have dropped at this point in time is that there is nothing available for sale, not that nobody is buying. Things haven't come off the boil YET. They will, but we're not there yet. Yields are down across the board, not just Mt Druitt.

 

That's part of the equation, can't look at this in isolation though, need to also look at changes in 'days on market' and 'stock on market' and compare to annual sales to see where the trend is going. Then yields might point logically to whether its attractive to investors and the stats will support the theory.

 

I'm not suggesting that those who have already bought to sell though, just saying that it doesn't make sense to buy there as an investment now. Low yields with chances of downwards to long side-wards movement......

Take the equity somewhere else..

 

Yep....and watch for shock..... it is a coming........ patience .....yields as low as 2% (not the Druie bit other parts of Sydney) cannot be sustained.

Be prepared not alarmed.

 

Again! This isn't just pertinent to Mt Druitt. I don't understand why people with no interest in THIS area feel the need to jump up & down & tell people how bad Western Sydney is. I wouldn't advise people to buy into most of the Sydney catchment for exactly the same reason. The smart money has been looking outside of Sydney for some time now.

 

Welcome back Sash (to this thread).....never under estimate what a meetup can do ..

Frankly this post is becoming useless for me to continue... people see me as vested interest in "Druie".. I have never ever owned a single property in 2770, nor I currently own one or have interest in buying in the next cycle whenever this may be..

I came to this post.... observing how a respectable member of SS and PChat manipulating what is known information and rewrite his own fairy tale to suit own purpose....

 

At some stage , Mt Druitt ( and other similar Lower socio economic places , logan , goodna etc ) ) will fall significantly from their peaks , whenever they are . It has done so in the past and will do so again ( at some stage ) in the future

The reason is simple . Many of the people who live there ( and too a degree, invest there ) , are there because it's the cheapest place in sydney , so that suggests they don't have a lot of money , which suggests they're not good at managing their money ( yes, there are notable exceptions ) , which means they're more likely to get into financial problems and become motivated vendors or mortgagee in possession sales . I know that's type casting the area , but any one who's been out there for any length of time , knows it's true .

My observation also is that they only attract large numbers of purchasers when times are good . The people who are buying when the times are bad are the smart ones like Skater , and believe me she's looking for bargains , and if you l look for long enough , when the market is dead , they are there , and the bargain price becomes the new normal ...and the market goes down.

Cliff

 

The opposite goes for the top end of the market. Here jobs are more stable with fewer reluctant sellers who hold off and sell other assets/asset classes before putting up the ppor. The quantity of stock dries up rather than gets flooded. The prices tend to stabilise due to lack of supply but there's still good buying to be had in the > $1.5m market during these times of decline.

You find that these owners will sell the holiday house at Palm Beach before the main digs.