VIC population surges ahead in latest ABS stats

Explains the boom in Melbourne right now - 2.4%. Way ahead of NSW and QLD at 1.6%..

I always find who is arriving and leaving between states (intrastate migration) an interesting stat, as they are the ones that are either sick of where they are living, or think they have a better opportunity elsewhere.

27,100 people left NSW last year, 22,825 arrived (net: -4275)
20,384 left QLD, 24,526 arrived (net: +4142)
16,215 left VIC, 21,171 arrived (net: +4956)

3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2017

Large uptick in the latest quarter for all of Australia as well- 389,000 people added to the population of Australia in the last 12 months -- that's a lot of people to house each year. Government must have opened the immigration taps again, as 59.6% is net overseas migration. We effectively import most of our growth...

 

Yes agreed, lots of temporary visas being issued, methinks, especially international students.

Interstate migration to Queensland been rising for 9 quarters now - maybe not that surprising, picking up migrants from NSW at this stage in the cycle - but also, look at Victoria go.



Melbourne looks like it's going to surprise a few people - population growth heading off the charts down there!

 

Where do you get stats that show the numbers every quarter?

Also, when I check out these

Sydney Population 2017
Melbourne Population 2017
Brisbane Population 2017
Perth Population 2017​

it shows sydney going up by 10% in a single year and 30% over 5 years, which I am assuming is what made Sydney boom through the roof (a third more people in a major city in just 5 years is insane when you think about it).
So that makes me wonder when you compare Melbourne at 2.2-2.4, it doesn't so significant in comparison when after 5 years of that it will account for a third of Sydney's last 5 year population growth. What am I not understanding that makes 2.2-2.4% so significant?

 

What does this all mean for property in Melb? Soft landing? There will always be an affordability cut off point

 

Sydney's population wasn't growing at 467,000 in a year - that would be faster than all of Australia's population growth combined - so, no idea where they are pulling numbers are from.

Total population growth for Victoria was estimated at just shy of 150,000 over the year to March 2017 - the fastest since 1960.

 

Those figures actually are insane - I hope nobody is paying too much for that research.

 

Since the census re-calibration the historical ABS figures pre june 2016 don't add up.

take for example VIC Jun-16 quarter.

• Natural increase: 9,652
• overseas migration: 12,535
• interstate migration: 4,947
• sum of changes: 27,134

But the reported total population change is 37,949.

My understanding is that the total change figure has been adjusted for census results, but component data must not be. This is quite substantial when looking at other states as well.

So looking at the "uptick" in the data, what we are actually seeing is the start of census-adjusted data from sep-16. 12 months to June 16 saw population increase by 146k. as of march 2017, we are seeing 149k. If you were to base the change on component data, the 12 months to Jun-16 you would only has seen a 123k increase, which makes the growth increase look much bigger than the census determined it actually was.

summary: yes, record growth, but growth rate seems to be finding its ceiling. Also we can't trust component data pre Sep-16

 

The figures given for Sydney in the source above are complete nonsense. Annual percentage growth has been between 1 and 2%, most recently falling to something like 1.6% or so (can't be bothered to look up the exact figures right now, but your source is sheer fantasy).

 

Ah right thanks @petewargent @JL1 @HGM
Sounded crazy to me but since I don't know what is normal I did not think to try find it anywhere else.

Is there a go-to website that has regular (quarterly, 6monthly or yearly) data on populations of major cities? The abs has it but doesn't seem to be frequent.

 

Hi Anthony - ABS has annual updates, they are only estimates though, so probably wouldn't take them too literally.

 

Sshh - no need to hype Melbourne - keep all the population boom under wraps from interstate investors while some of us are still developing.

 

Agree....Sydney is a better prospect in the current stage of the cycle....

 

Could the differences in numbers be due to the ABS stats not differentiating between NSW vs. Sydney? I.e. NSW's growth rate currently sitting at around 1.6%, but Sydney's could be significantly higher? (Just a guess?)
Not sure the correctness of that other website though, unless they can definitely say they get their numbers from a specific traceable source (they mention 3 sources however I do not know how they are piecing those figures together to come to their final numbers).

 

The figure for NSW is much lower than that, around 0.8%.

 

Wow, and people wonder why the real estate market is booming. I think migration growth is the key to Melbroune's turn around over the last 30 years. Combination of low unemployment rates, low interest rates and high migration.

Mark Ribarsky

 

Interesting that it only earns the top growth number by a small margin over qld. I was expecting an order of magnitude over qld.

 

Yep it's a massive advantage for Melbourne over Sydney . . . Sydney attracts typically poorer foreign immigrants while Melbourne attracts wealthier domestic expats...

Would expect Melbourne to have softer landing than Sydney...

 

Where did you get this idea?

 

Melbourne's population would be slightly larger than Sydney if the Central Coast wasn't counted in Sydney's population figures

 

Most wealthy Asian families in China tend to aspire to send kids to Sydney. I would imagine a lot stay on in Sydney.
This is not hard data just from my travel to China over 15 years of business.most of my meetings were with high networth individuals and Community level exacs.

I have no doubt alot go both Melbourne and Brisbane. Many fantastic institutions like ANU would attract clients as well.

Interesting amounts of Sydney bashing. I suppose some healthy NSW Vic rivalry

Must be all the poor imagrants buying up in Point Piper.