Vic Exodus

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Boss, 13th Nov, 2021.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
Tags:
  1. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Watch this space all the people rushing to Qld thinking there will be more freedoms forget Qldhad strict lockdowns. It's just they did not have much of a spread. As they open up they will have more Covid. Question is whether they can cope.

    Fine to be running up to Qld....but a lot will come back when they realise a lot of jobs are still in Melbourne. Other thing is Qld prices making melb look cheap.

    So watch this space......
     
    Lizzie likes this.
  2. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    9,627
    Location:
    Planet A
    Also doesn't have the vibrant street lifestyle of Melbourne

    But don't forget ... there's been 2 years of pent up demand that needs to flow thru before settling back down
     
  3. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2021
    Posts:
    343
    Location:
    Vic
    Haven't seen a vibrant street lifestyle in melbourne for 2 years, not missing much?
     
    Angel likes this.
  4. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    9th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    9,627
    Location:
    Planet A
    Pessimist
     
  5. vbplease

    vbplease Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,575
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Huh? as Vic lifts all restrictions..
    The new Vic pandemic bill might influence ppl's decision more in moving..
     
  6. Squirrell

    Squirrell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Sep, 2020
    Posts:
    1,009
    Location:
    Australia
    And sydney prices make melb look cheap. You can still get a stand alone place in a reasonably well located suburb 10ks out in west/north melb for low 1 mills. Bargain next to sydney.
     
  7. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    They might leave...but they will be back...there are not enough jobs which are high paying in Qld. This happens every cycle...case of grass is greener.

    As a matter of fact I think Vic may actually get a lot more internal migration as some Sydney people who moved...don't want to go back there....
     
  8. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    That is spot on........ 100% correct.

    Look at prices now in Brisbane, Gold Coast...Sunshine Coast...Melbourne is looking cheap. It also has a lot of jobs as a lot of corporates are there.
     
  9. Squirrell

    Squirrell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Sep, 2020
    Posts:
    1,009
    Location:
    Australia
    Yep. Im at nab. Back in office 2 days a week in jan. Cant commute from gc for that.
     
  10. vbplease

    vbplease Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,575
    Location:
    Brisbane
    You think people are quitting their high paying jobs without securing one in QLD first? wfh is here to stay.. and Bne will be Aus's second city after Sydney, once the Olymipcs is done.
    talking anecdotally about ppl I've met who have moved from Syd/Melb, the only regret they have is they wish they'd moved sooner..
     
    LROB and TAJ like this.
  11. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Lets see.....the issue is if you look at the job creation rates for professional jobs...they are still mostly in Sydney...Melbourne...Canberra.

    The real game change is Baby Boomers moving to Qld...there are moving there..but the question is whether they and young ones stay there.

    Like WA...the movement there is cyclical....people are moving to WA as they wages are now second only to Sydney...Canberra. Some young guys have jumping in this opportunities...pulling 200-400k per annum. They are mostly in highly skilled trades and engineering.
     
  12. Squirrell

    Squirrell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Sep, 2020
    Posts:
    1,009
    Location:
    Australia
    Also, how much of seachange driven by not being able to go to thailand/bali etc for holidays either for families or retirees who like to nip over for a few months.
     
  13. Ronen

    Ronen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Mar, 2021
    Posts:
    1,044
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I find it fascinating, and great explanation to whom are the people who are leaving VIC and move to QLD based on the last 2 years;
    When the "good" PMs are coming from QLD, I guess it speaks volumes.

    I dunno.... I prefer my government to go forward rather then take me back to the 19th century.
    But I'm also believe the lockdowns and vaccine mandates are the least of the worse measures to keep us from die like flies, so I guess I know ****
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th Nov, 2021
    Lizzie likes this.
  14. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2021
    Posts:
    343
    Location:
    Vic
    Listings in Victoria haven't been this high in 15 months ;)

    Going to be a real test in the midst of rising interest rates.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 25th Nov, 2021
    MTR likes this.
  15. Ronen

    Ronen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Mar, 2021
    Posts:
    1,044
    Location:
    Melbourne
    So you're basically saying the property market boom is going to bust and prices will drop 40%? 50% 60% in month or two?

    Aren't they say the same thing for the last.... 20? 30? 40 years?

    Well, you're crystal ball is better than mind then. I should take mine down to the servo and clean it. It's all murky - can't see a thing.

    Meet you back here in 2 years so we can compare notes :confused:
     
    Lizzie likes this.
  16. Traveller99

    Traveller99 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    755
    Location:
    Settled
    I'm conflicted on Melbourne. In the short term, I can see the city struggling and we'll likely see a stabilization of the median price with some quality pockets continuing to overperform. I predict Melbourne will be in some sort of lockdown again in 2022.

    In the mid to long term, when Melbourne no longer appears like the leper of Australia, I can only imagine a reversion to the mean when comparing to Sydney prices. 2022 is bound to be a year of worldwide civil unrest against government over each regarding Covid restrictions and this will no doubt hammer Melbourne again.

    For the record, I don't want this. Low rents and extended vacancies are hammering me at the moment :(
     
    MTR likes this.
  17. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,805
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Wait, what, lol? I seriously doubt some < 10% population is going to really create any serious civil unrest, or have absolutely any change. Sucks to be a minority eh?

    My real concern with Melbourne is really the migrant population. There is this massive assumption/projection that it will simply just snap back in 2022, when I think that is scarred for a while to come... it may be another 5 years before it recovers. This really affects Melbourne the most, and maybe Sydney. But if there is absolutely any reversion from Government assumptions, it's going to be really nasty. And if past history has anything to go by, they have NFI!
     
  18. Ronen

    Ronen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Mar, 2021
    Posts:
    1,044
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I think the headlines are more than the actual story in regards to this.
    Most of the people I know don't see "Melbourne" or even "Victoria" in such bad light as some people want us to believe.
    The headline "Melbourne is the most lockdown city in the world" plays to well to the minds of those who are against lockdowns, no matter how long they are, however, for most of us - we took it as a measures to protect the community.
    Many of us think that the way NSW (former) PM did the lockdown showed weakness and created even more division by marking parts of the community in negative light, while Bondi people could go freely about. This is not the way to make everybody feel "we're in this together".

    I reckon most Melburnians almost completely forgot there were lockdowns.
    We got to 90% over 12 years old very quickly, despite Skomo's efforts, and as soon as we opened - life's is basically back to normal.
    I think it's a bit overwhelming for most people to suddenly going from lazy mornings of home schooling to being an Uber driver of the kids to school, sports, work and stuff. No time to think how "miserable" people in QLD think Vic people are...

    Nothing changed in Melbourne for most. Most are not seeing this as "VIC" think, but as COVID thing.
    And as such - it's a global pandemic, so it essentially effected everybody in whole entire world...
     
    Lizzie likes this.
  19. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    15,663
    Location:
    Sydney
    Wow!

    Lots of short term thinking people....... Melbourne is not dead... it will bounce back...have a look at the prices in Brisbane and job opportunities there....that is the canary in coal mine for what will happen to Melbourne.

    Melbourne has a self cooling cycle which it is entering....as people who go up there realize there are no job Melbourne will bounce back. This typically takes 18-24 months to clearly show. The migration to Brisbane started in mid 2021...so you should see bounce back sometime in 2023.

    Melbourne outer suburbs are looking very cheap compared to Brisbane...and possible will be also to Perth...within 24 months.

    The regionals in VIC have no such issues....there are next level.....
     
  20. LROB

    LROB Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Jul, 2021
    Posts:
    343
    Location:
    Vic
    write it down, memorise it. *unless we take the turkey path*
    Melbourne.Is.Going.To.Crater.

    All of Europe headed towards lockdown, South Africa new strain ~ records 2456 new cases (300% increase)... yeh migrants are really going to be back in droves in 2022. All eyes on HK right now o.0

    Look @ how the UK are treating migrants from France lol. Aint nobody coming here anytime soon. Political suicide.

    Going to be the biggest blood bath ever. Im excited.