Tsunami has hit? Syd and Melb -1.1%

Terrible! I don't think I could live with a 53% gain.

 

Watching this last night, it's like seeing the big wave right out in the deep ocean where it's hardly noticeable - but having these guys on one after another and what they said, the tsunami is clearly on its way.
On the other hand, how many fhbs and investors are waiting for prices to fall? It'll be just like David Jones in Boxing Day sales.
Keep wondering whether or not to sell. Then I think, no. Not paying stamp duty on my Frankston property would've saved me about 2 years' worth of P& I savings. If even more fhb's are coming on board, I'm hanging around.

 

Macroeconomic view vs microeconomic views. Looking at month by month is like the days I were playing CFDs monitoring asx indexes currency fluctuations by the hour

A drop in prices say Doncaster for what was 1.5mil to 1.38mil when it went from 800-900k to 1.5 mil in 2 years would skew the stats if this was multiplied across 100 properties for that month

But if the others keep rising as others have fallen. How is it correctly represented in a drop overall ? Melbourne is in my opinion a ripple city, where suburbs boom, after a big leap the majority flatten out, but suburbs that have stayed stagnant either take the baton or still grow gradually. 2015 was the Ringwoods, 2016 were the preston, reservoirs 2017 the St. Albans and Heidelberg wests etc . Maybe as fund manager holding 1000 residential properties weighted to the cost of the fund a drop like that is significant

An good example is this Albert st preston(all housing comm houses) all like just within meters of each other and same size




127 albert street - 21st Dec 2015 - 580K
145 albert street - 9th April 2016 - 612K
126 albert street - 1st Nov 2016 - 680K
125 albert street - 13th may 2017 - 770K
129 albert street - 22nd may 2017 - 850k

Where is the negative 1.1% represented?

 

Markets within markets.

 

Not a good example IMO. They are too different, and 129 albert street has higher value than others - better conditions, more rooms and space

 

It's only just started to move out here. Similar to Frankston in that it stagnated then all of a sudden popped last year. Don't see it lasting long but it's still months off stopping

1 Young Street, Beaconsfield Upper, Vic 3808 - Property Details
1 Young Street, Beaconsfield Upper, Vic 3808 - Property Details

I picture it like a ripple going out from the cbd to 50km, then the opposite way at the end of peak! Quick window of double digit growth, then probably one of the first to drop demand. Lucky 95% of homes here are owned outright therefore there'll be no leverage issues!

 

I went to all the auctions and inspection. Well 142 was fully renovated and sold only 612k and 126 was worst looking which needed restumping 680k and 125 was a total demo

Better conditions? There is only so much u can do as they're All housing commission houses on 490-500sqm block if u're talking Art Deco fair call if one was 600sqm then yeah it ain't a good example

 

i agree - the ripple effect - it happened in sunshine moving to st albans, when nortcote thornbury became exp it moved to resevoir, lalor and in the east box hill, doncaster, balwyn all the next door suburbs are like million dollar suburbs now (blackburn, ringwood, mitcham). Same as pt cook, WL, tarneit in all honesty, it was like stagnant for a while. till it moved. i wouldn't buy in the premium suburbs but rather look for the suburbs/areas that is likely to to grow more

i keep saying you can see it in the auctions (numbers growing etc) look at this 142 albert st, preston (just the average joes hanging) this was the best looking block of all that sold.



at at the latest auction 125 albert st, you had to fight just to get in.

 

If I recall correctly, Balwyn/Balwyn North boomed well before Box Hill and Doncaster despite the fact that BH is served by Trains, Trams and Buses.

The North still looks strong, weirdly enough and I would have never picked on Heildelberg West becoming the next Chinese hot spot.

 

Balwyn was already up among the skies even before box hill was considered good. All my cousins went to Balwyn high school (which inc 10 separate families) and many bought and still live there today. They think it is best place to live Balwyn kew etc though I think it's pretty boring down there.

I find it strange too there are so many Asians looking in Heidelberg west. Would have thought Preston with the market etc would be a better option. I have been seeing more and more turning up. Imagine if u punted or bought 400k x 3 houses 2.5 years ago. That would be 1.2 mil on doing nothing but waiting since no many are breaching the 800kish mark.

 

A gambling man would bet on HW/HH/Reservoir etc becoming the next 1mil dollar suburb. Frankly, it is reasonable close to the CBD and quite green. I had a look but got cold feet on HH.

The North generally doesn't reflect a drop or even a hint of dropping judging by the crowds at auctions and actual bids? Those crowds look bloody huge man...

I dont know about Balwyn North, alcohol free zone and or should I say, was a no development zone until recently. A friend lives there (we thought he was nuts too back then).

A punt is a punt man, I really take my hat off to those strong enough to take wild punts (usually the winners)...my friend plonked $500K with parental help of course in North Bawlyn in 2004? Laughing now on a 800m2 block and decent 4 bedder. We thought he was nuts.

 

start of winter...seasonal effct...

 

Unit prices will drop like in areas like camberwell kew Balwyn mont Albert north as the neighborhood zone protected them before. I remember a colleague of mine who bought 2 bed villa unit in camberwell for 585k and then couple months later was offered 900kish he rejected it and wanted more the buyer walked. Now the zone change he won't get that offer again


Yup those crowds even rival the days in Balwyn glen Waverley and Ringwood when there were minimal checks to commie foreigners. I went to one in months ago -Preston double block further to coburg north and was the same at least a hundred though it was more Arabic communities Lebanese etc and first bid by an Arab was 1.75 mil.

I don't know I can't see HW being a million dollar suburb but u never know the areas has burn out cars, ppl looking like they are on ice etc and yet ppl are bidding 400kish more than what it was couple years ago.

There's this article in domain on exhousing comm houses in Hampton - not diff to the Albert st ones in Preston only larger 600-700sqm now selling for 1.6 mil

'Expensive piece of dirt': Fortunes changing in Melbourne's south-east

 

The ways things are head these are the very last bastions within a 15km raidus from the CBD that still is somewhat affordable. HW/HH is a rough diamond, governments are slowly getting rid of those commission blocks, heck the largest one is dilapidated is in *drum rolls* Ashburton. Developers will be offered blocks of land to develop but reserve a certain percentage for new housing commissions.

I am not a gambler hence I didn't pull the trigger in HH/HW but if I was, $800K might not be a bad gamble if it can reach 1mil a day for a 590-600m2 block.

Remember HW/HH/Rezza are what they are because of their proximity to the city, ditto Hampton and in most cases like Rezza/Hampton/HH - accessible to either their own train stations or ones nearby. I did some homework on HH and it can access Rosanna, Heidelberg and Macleod stations depending on what latitude you are on this suburb. There are ex commission house clusters in say Doveton, why isnt this booming? 31kms from the CBD and also no train access.

The auctions I attended in Rezza/HH/HW during March - May were ridiculous in number, almost as if you said "oh there is a slowdown/crash coming" people would look at you as if you just walked out of a mental asylum...

 

Your smoking.....something unhealthy me thinks....

 

lol I got calls too, do not even remember them, they said i went too open 2 years ago.....I laughed......

 

Retail sales figures are out too. Up 1% too.

My theory is gen z are back to buying smashed ago again. Draw your own conclusions.

 

Curious on your opinion on inner city stuff in Melb, little cottages, units, in areas like Prahran, Richmond etc.

Do you think they may fall back? No one has a crystal ball but they cant keep going up surely??

 

I think cottages will always be in demand I have been monitoring the ones in Pt Melbourne albert park south Melbourne and they all seem to be trending upwards as they are not many and no one would be building this again. I think the ones like are 385-399sqm would be in demand as the minimum garden req would not kick in I saw one cottage changed into 3 storey 3 apartment block each selling 1+ mil each. For Richmond just make sure u get into the good pockets the ones near church st are pretty dodgy.

 

It would be worthwhile waiting till after 1st July as so many things have change - state planning reg on minimum garden req and neighbourhood Zones, FHB stamp duty exemptions, new regs on clearance certificates, more restrictions on foreign buyers. There is also a lot of dynamics etc with infrastructure I realise after the train station redevelopment in sunshine and st alban finished it really stared to boom. U maybe right about Doveton as distance wise is far and same as Ringwood approx and after the freeway came in it just went crazy and also after Eastland got redeveloped.