Forex Trader's Corner - FX, Futures, Indexes, Commodities

lol

 

Since we're playing show and tell instead of posting screen shots I'm just gonna put up a widget from myfxbook tracking my Oanda account. This is for the small higher probability account.
The performance results are about the same as the main 2 accounts but the drawdown has been much smaller and a higher win ratio.
Sorry I blanked out the actual trades and history, but left the numbers.
This is only from april because they gave me a new account # with the new asic regulations.
The previous 3 months were similar results.

Just closed the EURGPB longs and placed a break even on a GPB/JPY short.

 

I've decided to close my long term longs on NZDCAD and AUDCAD.
As said before I get a clearer picture (or so I reckon) when I have money on the table, even a small amount. I see a lot of downside potential and so I just close the trades, this time luckily with a small profit.

Given my 3 month performance of 14%, I increased my accounts and put another 4k in the Oanda acct which is now 9473. Not much I know, but gotta start somewhere and there won't be a single more dollar going in unless there are profits. So as long as I can manage to make a few percentage points per month the balance will increase.

 

Finally I scored a goal. This one took a couple days, which is kinda normal in my trading. Occasionally they could go for weeks.

The USDCHF short came through after a couple of days.


EURGBP also gave some profits, and still going strong. I'm more than happy with my cut.


And so an extra 1% for July is added making it 15% in four mths. Hopefully I can get to the end of the month with a positive result and add more funds.

70% of trades postive out of 24 for Jul so far.
Next on the list could be long some JPY pairs.

 

The USDCHF shot back up taking out the shorts and is actually a sell again on a longer term.
When the market moves so far I can only really trade on account out of the three.
And even thought I gave the odds at 80% I still trade very small amounts. Margin is never more than 1% per trade. So for every 10k each trade is usually 0.02 at most, though I will make more than one trade per "setup" often. The net result is that my total leverage is rarely more than 1:1.
Gotta take care of that downside, or at least try. Never know what can happen.

The previous short was same as the long. Break of resistance then flies in the opposite direction.



It very rare to get short, long, then short trades in such a short time frame but hey we live in crazy times. Though it does make me more paranoid and stick to 1% or less.

Expecting EURGPB to go back up, again though this may take a few days.

Even though these trades were on a different account, the Oanda acct rose by a smidgen.


And now back to real estate any CIP project

 

Remember folks, you can't time the market!
But that doesn't mean you can't get pretty close.
Close enough to start knowing when to look for shorting opportunities.
It's never easy making money trading markets, so it's just a little extra help.
And I need all I can get.

And so we got to 7628 and now at a 600 pt drop.
Hasn't declined 10 percent yet, but enough to make shorts profitble with stops.

And as always still waiting for Elliot wavers to post post anything

 

Sitting at close to 40% for the YTD.
Slow and steady with a fairly smooth ride so far. I consider 4% draw down and zero negative equity better than expected and rather good performance.


Last closed trade was a few mins ago on the AUDNZD which is at it's lowest in a long time


Life's Good

 

That is amazing with your drawdown numbers. I tried for years to make short term fx trading to work - a friend of mine called it my "crack habit" - probably broke even at best.
I think 1 in 10 succeeding is very generous, think it's harder than that!

Working with a friend at the moment coding up some short term setups, will let you know how it goes - really just a side hustle...

 

I started with index futures using daily charts mid 90s then FX early 2000s.
After a while got bogged in the short term tarding down to minute charts and less...no good for me.
The other problem was watching others trade small accounts with huge % gains which invariably blew up for overtrading.
Unreasonable expectations is always a problem.
In the world of amateur forex saying my expectations are 1-2% a month is laughable.
But the universal rule always applies: It takes money to make money.
1-2% mth is fairly achievable with relatively low risk, and with large enough capital it becomes a reasonable amount.
If you're trying to turn 1k into 1million....good luck and power to you.
If I'm trading 2-300k at 1-2% mth, I think that's ok.
I expect max DD to be around 20% and every couple yrs a 10 to 20% monthly loss when markets go haywire. Part of the plan.
For me trading small over longer terms works better.

 

The short term trading was such a frustrating journey for me - my loop would be something like:-
- Figure out a good looking setup
- Backtest the hell out of it
- Looks good, start trading it live with small amounts
- Starts losing money, get frustrated, tweak the setup, keep losing - and back to step 1

And round and round we would go - I hate to think how many hours I spent on it.

Luckily at the same time I was working on my longer term systems, which work great, take very little time, so that is where I have landed up.

1-2% a month is great - I think a lot of fx wannabees get out the spreadsheet, calculate there capital compounded at 10% a month and cant believe how rich they are going to be....

 

Lol Done that more than once...

Three trade in a row. Hattrick. Sometimes I just think I'm just lucky so I'm going for a fourth.

 

Oops I did it again.
These are small trades btw accounting for about 0.5% increase in capital.
Step by step...inch by inch.

That may be enough of A/Z for the week now looking for an end of week bump up in eurgpb with a small long in play.

 

Aldi have t-shirts on sale next week i believe....

 

$6.99!! Tell'em they're dreaming!

 

The end of week friday bump on the EURGBP came through for a 22pip gain.
It's been happening almost every week for the last few mths.
1.5% for the month across 3 accounts. Long way to go yet and hopefully I can keep it up for the rest of the year.

btw MT5 is set to default GMT+3.

 

If ya wondering how the FX industry works and how it's geared to take your money, this is an interesting watch.
He's obviously pushing his own barrow but at least he has some runs on the board.
The second video will also explain why TA is mostly a scam designed to take your money.

 

AS200 peaked at 7641.
So the waypionts downward I see are:
7100
6550
6150
5950
5400
Not interested in start buying unless this down run is under 6600.
But who knows

 

Another good month trading the simplest and unsophisticated of strategies with 3.5% gains.
Other 2 accounts with higher risk are up just over 5%.

Currently short CHF/JPY which may still be in play till next week.
Also looking a buying GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD and shorting NZD/CAD.

I added some funds to make it a little more interesting and keep the focus.
It's nice to say "I made 12% this month!" but if all it amounts to is $18.26 it's a waste of time after a trial period.
And so the 3.5% for the month is $1979, and about the same in the other 2 accts. 27% after 8 mths and a bit more in the other two.
So now it becomes viable... as long as it can last. Though still below my target capital.
As always trading is high risk, forex even more. The market could just go berserk and it's most or all gone.
Only a small amount of wealth should be placed in such schemes.

The profit chart shows the process. many small profits, some losses and occasionally a nice run.


Happy trading.

 

CHF/JPY dropped after I posted and I took profits, and shorted again later when it retraced.


Came home tonight and and the GBP/CAN and EUR/CAN did as they were asked.


Geez can't ask for much than that even if the NZD/CAD did nothing.
Took profits and back in with a small long as a feeler. I'm long term bullish but so is everyone else and that means it may have to go back down to take their money.

Keep in mind that these are very small trades percentage wise. I the price did the opposite it would be no big deal.
My oanda acct goes from 3.5% to 3.72% for the month. The other ones at 5%.
Nothing to rave about other than just another brick added to the future castle, always hoping there's no barbarian or viking raid before it's finished.