QLD Townsville Flood

I wonder if the OPs planned purchase is in the video? If it is @Moo would be good to compare with the sellers description of the damage

 

Exactly, lessons learnt from the past have been disregarded with development occurring in locations where it shouldn’t have. There is a reason highsets were highsets and not to be built under.

 

Coming from experience, I strongly urge anyone not to buy in Townsville.

I bought a property in Mount Louisa in 2011. After the first 18 months of ownership I had to reduce the rent by 30% due to the low vacancy rates.

Rates and insurance to maintain property costs 3-5 times more than any other location in Australia.

In 2019, the value of the property is 25% lower than the price I purchased it for.

 

2011 was about the peak of Townsvilles property prices and they came down not long after. A place I originally was looking at but did not buy sold for 375k in 2011 and the owners were taking 285k in early 2017. In my experience vacency rates have improved (even before the floods), and rates compared to brisbane are that bad considering in Townsville the include water.

 

obviously you havnt learnt much from your experience

 

many lessons were learnt hence why I am sharing with others who are considering getting into the property market.

how would you approach the situation?

 

The best way for me to respond to that post is to paraphrase someone way more well-known than me:

Let he/she who hasn’t made a mistake, cast the first jibe!!!​

Over the last 40 years, I have made heaps of mistakes. So no jibes from me .

I must admit some of my biggest mistakes have been closely followed by some of my biggest successes .

 

High vacancy rates

@Moo did you decide what do?

- Andrew

 

Low lying areas in cyclonic regions have a dismal future unfortunately, an early casualty of climate change and rising sea levels. Personally I sold a low level coastal property in northern NSW 8 years ago solely because I expect the land it is on will not exist in 50 years.

 

Rental vacancies in Townsville are the lowest they have been for many years, after the flood.
Low vacancy rates push up rental yields, and eventually will push up prices.

I am not saying this will happen here - but don't discount the fact that this may happen.
If Adani does go ahead, that will also help prices...

 

Rental vacancies are going to be very low for the next 12-18 months as displaced home owners need accommodation while their homes are being repaired. Some insurance companies are already saying that they are unable to rent sufficient housing for their affected clients.
Marg

 

Our local school was raising money to help with the floods this week, very happy to help out. Terrible result for those drought impacted and now this.

My experience with flood in Brisbane is that the risk is under priced, people seem to forget about the issues and the discount is not enough compared with flood free options, exceptions for tightly held property such as river front but otherwise stay away from these issue if at all possible.

 

i'm a local. My house got flooded - just enough. The house across the road was fine.
i think property prices will rise. We have been bouncing along the bottom for a long time. House prices well back on what they were ten years ago. The economy was bad. Not the least of which the single biggest employer closing. Now every trade has work coming out of their ears. Every business remotely connected will do well. the amount of money moving through the town will boost the economy for a couple of years. And by then a lot of the projects that were going to help us will be online and I think we will continue to grow.
That said insurance could make or break you. westpac just quoted me $11k PA for a house on poles that wasn't flood affected. I'll reinsure for $3800 from the same insurer as last year. An increase of $400. Some insurers don't even look at the postcode (4810) townsville city. Youi for example just hears 4810 and says nup. even though it includes hillside suburbs etc.

 

Geebuz.....my house insurance for my 3-bedroom townhouse in Norlane was just shy of $600, i am amazed at those prices, that would make a significant difference to the bottom line with yield up there. 11K is basically saying the average house has a 1 in 18 chance of being destroyed, assuming 200K being the cost for materials plus build.

 

Case in point, just came across this meme in a Townsville group on fb

Meanwhile in Townsville


Tamara Standley

 

not buy somewhere after years of growth
all property markets have cycles but the regionals are exaggerated
if buying in a regional town then yiu at least want to be in a good location - what does mount louisa have going for it?

to come on here and tell people not to buy in a town because you personally made the wrong decisions is ridiculous

i have made plenty of bad investment decisions but i try to work out where i went wrong and not make the same mistakes

 

we are youi insured in west end , 4810
$2k per year
but our insured value is $435 ,000
i put the excess up and it slashes the premium

only reason we really have insurance is jf the place were to burn down or get blown away

 

I think people are forgetting this is being called a 1 in 500 or 1 in 2000 year event. Not a 1 in 100 year event. Some areas had over 1800mm in 10 days. That's more than 3 x Melbourne's annual rainfall.

Yes, insurance will go up - however in spite of the horrific toll it has taken on the individuals affected, I think this will actually provide a lot of stimulus to the Townsville economy.

I think once the initial shock has passed and the damaged houses have been repaired I think the market will actually improve.

 

If you think this is truly a 1-500 year flood you have rocks in your head. Not only did a flood almost as bad hit the town in 2009, the likelihood of it happening with climate change is going to become higher and higher moving forward. I know many still have their head in their sand regarding this, but its very real, and being proven more real each and every year with events like this.

Those statistical "1 in X" predictions are rubbish.

 

I’ve lived in Townsville my whole life and I can assure you this event was nothing like anything in living memory. I’m not even sure of the event you’re referring to in 2009. That’s how significant it must of been.

I do believe in climate change however saying these types of events are going to become more frequent is pure speculation at this point. Townsville has been in drought for last 5+ years prior to this and this is the highest recorded rainfall event for the city ever..... until proven otherwise, take it for what is...... a once in a lifetime event.

Please elaborate.