NSW Thoughts on upper north shore in curremt market

Obviously no one has a crystal ball but would be keen to hear what everyone's thoughts on how property prices around the Sydney upper north shore would fare based on the challenging market conditions.

Traditionally, it has been fairly resilient but obviously, we are in challenging times. Talking about Killara up to Warrawee/Wahroonga.

 

Unclear with the short to medium term, but longer term, I think the metro extension (opening 2024) will support the upper north. Will be plenty more jobs in north sydney and the lower north. Easier accessibility with metro, and proposals such as western harbour tunnel and beaches link will probably also support the broader region.

 

There will be the flow on effect from the opening of north connex.

 

I don't think the Metro will have any affect on the Suburbs mentioned as it goes in a completely different direction and these suburbs are already supported by a rail line through Chatswood, St Leonards, North Sydney and the CBD (North Shore rail line). At best it will free up some space on the existing line when the Metro runs through to the CBD in 2024 but I believe the intention is to then run less North Shore trains so probably no difference.

The Northconnex will actually create more traffic through Wahroonga, Turramurra and down through Pymble etc. Many more trucks too since they can't use Pennant Hills Rd any longer and the Pacific Hwy is the way to avoid the toll. Not nice Very good for the Northern Suburbs like Normanhurst, Thornleigh etc though.

 

There are arguments for both sides. I am a transport engineer/planner and though I don't necessarily have evidence per se, I would make the following comments.
Although the metro does deviate at Chatswood, there will be profound agglomeration benefits for north sydney corridor. This means more jobs will be accessible in areas including North Sydney, Crows Nest, St Leonards, and Chatswood etc (with easy access from the upper north). With (generally) increasing pressure on commercial office space in Sydney, firms are increasingly decentralising to the north shore. The north shore tends to have highly paid jobs in professional/technical services. I doubt that north shore trains will decrease because the trains that go up the north shore tend to also service the western suburbs.
I would find it highly improbable that trucks would deliberately avoid NorthConnex and travel down the highway. I would suggest that the value of travel time savings and savings on operational costs would far offset any toll cost.

 

I think you are making text book assumptions rather than understanding the market and history of the area, the North Shore has long been an employment area with the benefits you mention, the Metro was charged to run via the lower North Shore (the original iteration of the NW Metro ran via Gladesville) because of the strength of these centres, not as a catalyst to grow them.

These centres have grown on the back of the North Shore rail line already. Part of the Justification of the Metro running across the harbour was that the North Shore line was moving towards being at capacity between Chatswood and Central. This successful job market was not caused by the Metro, it was happening anyway. Metro is just adding capacity and redundancy.

As a transport planner, I would hope you would understand that trains from the Western and Northern line can be turned back at North Sydney (2 turn back platforms), so don't travel up the North Shore line. They can also (and do currently) turn back at Lindfield and Gordon, not making it completely through the upper North Shore and the suburbs being discussed.

On North Connex, I think you will find if you read the early planning documentation that it actually states that there will be an increase in traffic, including heavy vehicle traffic (doesn't have to be large trucks either, remember) on the Pacific Highway. Some truck drivers are more than happy to avoid tolls. That's why they have actively banned trucks (with cameras etc) on Pennant Hills Rd above the tunnel, since they know that trucks won't just use the tolled tunnel to save "operational costs".

Are you actually a transport engineer/ planner in Sydney?

 

I appreciate that we might have slightly different spectrums of viewing this, and that's ok, there is no perfectly right or wrong answer.
Here is the development which is occuring in Crows Nest virtually solely as a result of the metro. St Leonards and Crows Nest
Here is development which is occuring at North Sydney virtually solely because of the metro. Victoria Cross Over Station Development
Yes, there are turnback facilities on the north shore, but I'm also broadly aware of long term conceptual discussions to basically turn Hornsby into a new Chatswood (through over station development).
I wasn't the user who first floated northconnex being a benefit to the north shore, but eventually I tagged on. Going back to OP, I would suggest as long as you don't purchase on the highway itself, it should probably be ok.

 

My comments were not that there would be no development with the Metro, but that's a completely different scale to what you were talking about. Of course there's going to be development around the Metro stations but again, go back and look at the history of those surrounding areas and you will find that development has been on the cards pre Metro, especially that stretch between North Sydney and St Leonards. They've gone bigger in those exact locations I think but in the scheme of what's being discussed it doesn't align. If they were really keen they would have built the proposed Artarmon industrial area Metro station (meant to be a catalyst for lot's of development) but there wasn't enough interest apparently. That's something that wasn't previously floated pre Metro.

Can you provide some details of over station development at Hornsby? I don't believe that has ever been proposed? I'm not sure it can actually be done. There's been talk of replacing the yard with development but that's been withdrawn. There will be development around Hornsby station though but the big stuff has been knocked back so far. It won't be a Chatswood though! It's not an issue with train numbers, remember the Northern line also runs through Hornsby in addition to the North Shore line.

Even with the reduction in services on the North Shore line, you have to keep in mind that there would still be more trains than run on the Metro currently. They are hoping that the big stations move to Metro to allow for more express running for the Central Coast trains. So worse service for the suburbs in question on the North Shore line but better for the Coast and also the Northern and Western lines. Having said this, there is still a few years before this will be put in place so we don't yet know what it will look like.

My comments on Northconnex were just in reply to your comment that you found it highly improbable that trucks would look to avoid the toll, clearly not the case!