Thoughts on Nathan birch's 2018 recession theory

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Frank M, 27th May, 2018.

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  1. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Anything that sees the currency drop by 15% +++ can play havoc with the economy.Especially for countries that have high levels of debt and is borrowed from offshore.
    Virtually everything that is imported into Australia is paid for in USD and that puts further pressure on the economy as the prices increase, the RBA has to discard all their previous planning out the window regarding interest rate movements.
     
    marmot, 28th May, 2018
    #41
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  2. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    It is the over supply in some areas.....too many new builds.

    For example the number of houses and units in Hills, SW, and parts of the lower North Shore, Inner west, East, etc.

    In most cases with property not going up for a couple of years..people are better off renting ...
     
    sash, 28th May, 2018
    #42
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  3. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Why do you think they left? :D
     
    Perthguy, 28th May, 2018
    #43
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  4. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Well-Known Member

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    along the train line from Chatswood to Berowa, there are lots of new apartments finishing soon as well,
     
    Eric Wu, 29th May, 2018
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  5. Dean Collins

    Dean Collins Well-Known Member

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    Rents aren't dropping for our places in Sydney, we did 2 renewals in the last 3 months (all of our IP's are on 12 month leases and we never do month to month).

    2.74% increase in Petersham
    2.33% increase in Narwee
    (both are 2Br/1Bth).

    I have a 3Br/2Bth in Carlton coming up for renewal in Sept that I have a projected 2.59% increase ($15 eg $580 to $595) that based on rents I'm seeing in domain.com.au that I think is about market value though I wont make that decision until 70 days out.

    My point being.....where are you seeing rents dropping 10% to 20%? Care to post some examples?
     
    Dean Collins, 29th May, 2018
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  6. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    My client base is only a weeny sample, but the rentals are amazeballs strong for near city units. Mascot and region, I would have thought would be oversupplied - doesnt look that way .

    ta

    rolf
     
    Rolf Latham, 29th May, 2018
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  7. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    What happened to his crypto exchange service? Where he would. Teach the world how its done

    And if you are not on it you are a Fing idiot
     
    Last edited: 29th May, 2018
    TMNT, 29th May, 2018
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  8. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Are these parts really down by that much in Sydney? Melbourne should follow in theory but I just can't see any part of Melbourne falling (ignoring otp and high rise apartments)
    I'm thinking slow down or plateau for about 3 to 5 yrs
     
    TMNT, 29th May, 2018
    #48
  9. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Whoa slow down my friend. ..

    Your been fullee hektic
     
    TMNT, 29th May, 2018
    #49
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  10. mickyyyy

    mickyyyy Well-Known Member

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    My good friend looked at several units in Mascot and one was going for 750pw brand new, he offered 600pw and settled on 650pw, I noticed theres still alot coming online in that area...
     
    mickyyyy, 29th May, 2018
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  11. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yep....there will be some good buys....lots of people will not finance...
     
    sash, 29th May, 2018
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  12. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Lane Cove....Schofields.....Kellyville.....Woy Woy......Mascot....the market has turned.

    Olders units but renovated with rents under $500pw are holding up a lot better.
     
    sash, 29th May, 2018
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  13. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    I agree with Melbourne....new houses are under $400pw...so quite affordable..only issue will be an oversupply which there is not with houses. Units however are dropping and houses in expensive suburbs have come off.

    As for Sydney...for example new units in Meadowbank 1 Brms down from 550-600 to 450-540pw. 2 bedrooms new units down from 800pw plus....down about 80-100pw. Older stuff is okay but still down about 50-60pw.

    Same in Lane Cove .
     
    sash, 29th May, 2018
    #53
  14. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Regarding rental leases renewals of 4IPs over the last 3 months. Locations, North Bondi and Rose Bay NSW. Increased 3 rents with no issues. 1 rental didn't agree so naturally didn't renew lease and got new tenants in 4 days later happy to pay the increased amount.
     
    Sackie, 29th May, 2018
    #54
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  15. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Like your locatoin says fantasia.....
     
    sash, 30th May, 2018
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  16. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Ah, yes. Agree
     
    Omnidragon, 11th Jun, 2018
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  17. AndyPandy

    AndyPandy Well-Known Member

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    So what are our thoughts now? A broken clock gets it right twice a day? Or messiah of Mt Druitt?
     
    AndyPandy, 16th Mar, 2020
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  18. vbplease

    vbplease Well-Known Member

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    Between 1900 and 2018, there were 33 bear markets, averaging one every 3.5 years. To say he got it right, while being 2 years off is a stretch.. but if he’s correct about this being as bad as the 1929 Great Depression, well then shut up and take my money
     
    vbplease, 16th Mar, 2020
    #58
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  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Big if.
     
    Perthguy, 16th Mar, 2020
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  20. AndyPandy

    AndyPandy Well-Known Member

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    Also his hedge, i.e crypto is getting smashed pretty bad too.
     
    AndyPandy, 16th Mar, 2020
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