This guy has a crystal ball on Oz Prop

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 1st Aug, 2020.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    This guy is making sense and backs it up with evidence on where and what is likely to happen With Oz property. Just my opinion


     
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  2. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Steve Keen Jr? :oops:
     
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  3. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Did you watch it.....? Nothing like SK, not even close

    very balanced and not outrageous

    Its taken all the four major bank predictions into account. Where and how do banks research and summise
    He has also quoted stats from renowned reliable sources

    He has mentioned the basic fundamentals of property supply vs demand and why he does not expect huge drops??

    Considering currently what is happening I dont expect a boom Cycle, though if this does happen I should probably stop investing :p as I clearly have no clue
     
    Last edited: 1st Aug, 2020
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  4. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Nice vid.

    Say after all this, if things do actually go back to normal shouldnt we all expect prices to be much higher than before? Rates were 3% before this now pushing 2%.. almost a 33% difference.

    So is sentiment so bad now that it is creating a once in a decade opportunity??
     
  5. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    No? I think we will see drops, Syd and Melb most vulnerable and will be dependent on impact of economy on recovery?? Need to see how it plays out

    Anymore lockdowns and we are screwed
     
    Last edited: 3rd Aug, 2020
  6. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    That video is dated May 11 so his views are based on data that's a bit old now. Since then the impact of coronavirus has changed across the states in different ways. In Melbourne, it's clearly been a steady decline for the worse and while the other states fair better in opening up internally they still are cautious about opening their borders.

    He didn't mention JobKeeper or JobSeeker much. Did you see Alan Kohler's article in The Australian on Friday? Not a huge fan of the paper but I like Alan. Anyway here are some interesting comments from him.
    From all the chatter I am seeing everyone is pinning a big drop in markets, to the moment the federal government dramatically reduces it's new COVID social welfare schemes.

    So... what's more likely? The Liberals keep piling on debt like the 'GFC Labor' party they hate? Or they take responsibility for releasing a wrecking ball into middle Australian households but keep to their ideals?
     
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  7. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    Yes, its May, and the impact of recent weeks will hurt our economy big time

    Either way, Melb is screwed and no Plan B

    Also, depends whether other States see a second wave????

    Cant see a clear exit plan, seems we are just continually trying to put out fires
     
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  8. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Im in the Sutherland shire looking to upgrade house.

    No bargains none in the bay areas at all.


    Looking since March hoping to upgrade . Not eve close 3-5 bidders every auction last one attended was Saturday for a knockdown got $1,605.000 6 active nidders hosue is 60+ years old needs to knocked.
     
  9. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    wow
    You have been looking for a while
    Whats driving this market

    low stock??
     
  10. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    There was nothing there that I hadn't already seen/heard/read. Yes, we all expect there to be some degree of correction - the banks have all factored in their corrections & reforcasts.

    With the latest round of lockdowns in Victoria, we will see more doom and gloom and this will set back that state's recovery by another 6-12 months (get out your property clocks and start marking them up).

    Prices currently are being driven by several factors - births, deaths, marriages, divorce & life changes - no real difference in these things but people are holding out for longer to make a change to due to greater uncertainty eg. will I have a business/job next week? For those in safe jobs which is the majority of working people, its BAU. For pensioners, its BAU (government hasn't gone broke). For schoolies, its BAU (schools aren't closed, unis have resumed etc or have access to alternative delivery methods). For those relying on dividends/fixed interest, their returns are going backwards.
     
  11. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    That is why I believe a golden age will follow, caused by the pent-up demand.
     
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  12. Ross36

    Ross36 Well-Known Member

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    It's nuts here on the sunshine coast - people are flocking to open homes and big money is going on what I'd consider inferior product. I've seen no evidence of a slowdown, and think we may have a mini boom as people recalibrate their thoughts on city vs large regional and working remotely.

    Dense cities will be interesting though, might take awhile for them to come back.
     
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  13. Closet

    Closet Well-Known Member

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    Yep...mid to Outer ring north Brissie is pumping along and from the ground investors are leaving the market in numbers but are being replaced in droves by OO. This is seeing multiple offers on properties, no stock = premium prices and also leaving a very tight supply of rental properties which is pushing rent up significantly as well....certainly not predicted...
     
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  14. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Mt Druitt looking strong.

    Judging by that fella's picture, I'd say he's praying for a crash.

    No, I didnot watch the video.
     
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  15. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent

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    Inflationary "melt up" guys. Sorry to be a broken record player....
     
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  16. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent

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    It's not pent up demand. That is actually quite a controversial Keynesian expression (is there a limit to demand or desire)?

    I agree that an explosive phase will follow shortly, but it's going to be inflationary money creation and a rush towards tangible assets and decaying debt that will see property serve as a safe haven. We actually already see this beginning in a range of other asset classes.
     
  17. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    I get the concept of a big injection of cash naturally leads to higher prices. However in practice, who would have access to this cash? Are you referring to JobKeeper or JobSeeker?
     
  18. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Those with access to cash & finance.

    Not unless they had multiple payments.
     
  19. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, I meant locked-up demand :p
    That is why I believe staying alive (+ in good health) and keeping one's powder dry are currently good, short-term tactics in one's long-term wealth creation journey.
     
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  20. Jezzah

    Jezzah Well-Known Member

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    OK so it sounds like the cash enters the market through new loans or via the government welfare schemes.

    Thing is, who has confidence to make a giant financial purchase while on welfare? The banks are minimizing their lending to this group too. So that large amount of money that is spread thin across the populace shouldn't affect real-estate dramatically.

    That just leaves new loans. High unemployment is a barrier to that rocketing up.

    I may be misunderstanding the flow of this new money and therefore how it eventually arrives in a property purchase transaction. However, until the economy improves I don't see people out there bidding like they were in January.

    To be clear, I am not saying it won't rocket up again. In fact I have been trying to buy. However I also expect to lose value on such a purchase, possibly for a fair while.
     
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