NSW The Signs of Sydney Slowdown....

@ej89 and @WinDyz. No need to do such extreme mate, just wait patiently for the next 2-3 years Sydney will be affordable for you after you've saved enough cash.

 

I'm in Gosford city now. Which bank?

 

Sydney rose again this week.

 

Maybe it's the rush to make purchases before the preapprovals/old policies are taken away...

 

Well @Gockie if that's the case then we should wait until the usual pre approval validity period 3 months expired to seethe actual result.

Hopefully next week RBA doesn't cut the interest rate anymore.

 

Do you mean raise or cut?

 

@Gockie I mean cut. it is not going to have any good to the economy, but instead over inflates the proeprty price even further to the dangerous level.

Retail business still closing down one by one, well at least in Sydney CBD and Darlinghurst Oxford St. area.

@Darlinghurst Boy : is that correct that some shops clisong down in your area mate ?

 

I see. Well, a rate rise definitely won't help retail businesses... rates rise, people spend less, and people are less likely to start businesses if they need to rely on borrowed funds... To stop the madness in Sydney's property market I believe the actions APRA has taken plus perhaps some targeted postcode policies could do the trick... if that happens there's no problem if rates get cut again.

 

You must remember that Sydney City Council own a lot of Retail space along Oxford Street Darlinghurst.
I dont see shops along Oxford Street Darlinghurst closing , many more opening in fact,BUT go along 300 metres to Oxford Street Paddington is where you will see FOR LEASE signs in nearly every shop.
Oxford Street Paddington is where a lot of Womens fashion shops are, brand names Carla Zampotti etc , many only last a year or so before closing.

 

apra this, apra that...

This is how I see it:

- apra changes will affect investors that are close to the maximum borrowing level. Investors with several IPs. Are these investors buying in Sydney in 2015 and planing to buy in 2016? I don't think that serious investors make up large % of buyers in Sydney

- lots of newbie investors buying in Sydney? Maybe, but these would be investors with 1 or 2 ips max. Are they going to be that limited with new apra regulations? And if they are, find a lender that is not controlled by apra...

- FHB/OO - they are going crazy thinking that if they don't buy now, they may not be in position to buy ever again in Sydney. No apra changes for them. They have a potential to keep Sydney going for a while.

- One thing that I am noticing lately is sellers being totally unrealistic setting their prices and not budging. Several properties in my area on the market for weeks and weeks now. This could be the main driver slowing Sydney down.

 

Classic sign of a market which will be heading down..

 

Sash, when you say heading down, are you implying that the market is stalling now and will start dropping/correcting over the next 6 months? My view is that Sydney market not only survived winter but got much stronger than I anticipated, so it may not keep going up massively %-wise but stalling it isn't quite yet.

Yes, several properties overpriced and not selling (and I don't know if this is true for most of Sydney, only commenting on my area), but many more that are still selling very VERY fast.

 

Sydney is not one market...some markets may start correcting in the next 6 months...others may take another year or longer.

 

Sqm report an " abnormal " increase in listing in Sydney

Louis Christopher , who , IMHO , is one of the more believable property experts is calling a slowdown in Sydney and Melbourne .

Cliff

An unseasonal, sharp rise in property listings in July may be an early sign the real estate boom centred on Sydney and Melbourne is nearing its peak.

SQM Research figures show that nationally the number of properties listed for sale rose 3.8 per cent in July compared to the previous month, and was up 4.2 per cent on the same month last year.

The biggest monthly rise amongst the capital cities came from Sydney, where listings jumped 18.5 per cent, although the number of properties for sale in Australia's largest city remains below the levels in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

The number of properties listed for sale in Sydney was up 6.1 per cent on the level seen in July last year.

On a monthly basis, listings also jumped 7.8 per cent in the red hot Melbourne real estate market.

...

 

I am so out of touch with the Sydney market! Weird I know, (considering about a third of my portfolio is in this city!); but I stopped buying here in 2012. Apart from hawk-eyeing the actual suburbs where I am invested (for equity releases/re-vals on these properties to enable equity releases) I have no idea if it is slowing.

Surely the investor market will dry up for a couple years now, though?

Home buyers will persevere though and hopefully the excess stock will make it more affordable for them.

 

@See Change That's a good news for affordability and Brisbane investor as well , let's invest in Brisbane area and keep away from Sydney unless you've found a bargain.

@C-mac Yes, somehow the property cycle like @Shadow usually posts is true.

 

I have a lot of RE.com searches that I receive emails for. My inbox in the last few weeks is a getting a lot fuller than the last few months. I predict a huge number of properties coming on the market this spring, combine that with high vendor expectations and i think the clearance rate is going to take a hit. Still think there will be some growth over the next year but at a much slower rate.

 

I think Mr Christopher may be right.

However, there is a lot of momentum left and it won't surprise me if it takes a good 12+ months for the rolling annual growth rate to flatline.

 

Had two emails from western Sydney REA stating "Price Reduced"... (From overly inflated price) I read.

Seems like investors loosing confident to pay the difference of bank valuation!