The only way Isn't up

Hey Leo...question....my BS....antenna is starting to go into overdrive...do ya think something is wrong with it?

 

Whats BS about quakers hill 800k older homes? and 25km from the Sydney cbd with a 500k mortgage for say a home is reasonable based on demand . That's just my opinion. Not sure why its bs.

 

Yes, but i think it will play out very slow. (I think the first .25 up will come as a shock to many that have become complacent). Although in conjunction with io loans rolling into pi, there could be some pain coming.

Our US teaser rate moment?

 

I strongly believe that even in the worst case scenario of an Irish-like crash (around 50% down for the market overall, though realistically that means fringe estates and oversupplied apartments losing most of their value, while most established areas only experience a brief panic drop unless they're just ludicrously overpriced) the economy will recover remarkably quickly. Multiple housing markets dropped during the last big bubble (pre-GFC) and they've almost all recovered quite nicely, and most of those economies are booming even in Europe (which just a few years ago seemed like a mess).

 

Good to know everyone's insight into current market.I'm really consider selling my PPOR in Sydney,the price almost double since I bought it.What I feel is Sydney market is definitely cooling down and under correction.what worries me most is the interest rise in the future,we won't have the lowest interest forever.I'm going to Steve McKnight's one day seminar on March,always good to get some information from him.

 

but primary residence is an different issue, rules don't apply???

 

Where will you live?
Why sell your ppor unless you are concerned about meeting repayments?
Your own house is your foundation IMO, the market may fall around you but provided your cashflow is good It doesn’t matter. If the Sydney market corrects by 10-15% so what, you obviously have plenty of equity as the property has almost doubled. Sit tight.

If you look hard enough there is always bad news, what matters is your personal circumstances.

An investment property is a different story.

 

"Doom and gloom" is investors' best friend! How else can you grab a bargain here and there? "Be greedy when others are fearful" is my favourite quote.

 

The best opportunities seem to be with Perth and Brisbane by the look of this graph alone.

 

Thank you very much for your reply.I consider sell because i have an IP, also in sydney ,i realised my strategy isn't correct at the beginning after i read people's investment strategy and storied from this forum,big thanks to everyone.i focused too much on capital gain and ignored the cash flow part,thats the reason i can't expand my portfolio.i was doing ok because the market and interest rate was nice to me,if the interest rate rise and my ip and ppor goes to P+I,i would be in trouble.so i'm thinking sell my ppor because there would be no capital gain tax,i can use the cash to invest in other city where i can get better cash flow or pay down the debt of my IP .

 

Looks like he was right, however it was the credit squeeze not interest rate rises that changed the market

 

Yes, ignoring what comes after boom is just dumb

 

Speak to a good accountant. Determine entry and exit costs.

Than see. If its beneficial to invest in another market.
Dont forget there are no rules.Perth doesn't have to boom.so you may sell and buy in a market that isn't moving.
Good advice is your friend.

 

Thanks a lot.You made a good point,the other market may not move.

 

...bump

What does Steve say investors should do in 2019

Extract below... Steve McKnight


If you are looking to invest, then remember that, in order to make money from capital appreciation, someone will have to pay you more for it tomorrow then you are paying today.

1. Affordability
   Target areas where you have sufficient deposit and borrowing ability to buy, without placing yourself in excessive financial stress.
   
   
2. Houses, not homes
   Buy the ugliest house, in the best street, as close to town or a train station that you can afford. Later add value by turning the house into a home.
   
   
3. Scarcity
   Buy where there are features or amenities that are not valued highly today, but will be appealing tomorrow. Examples include new roads, planned train stations, job opportunities, proximity to amenities, etc

For me, its continuing to increase cash flow. Those interest only loans now converting to interest only loans.... ouch

MTR

 

Steve is rarely If ever wrong. No comparison in terms of property gurus.

I know reading back over some of my 2018 posts I believed only rate increases would stop the boom. Others with their finger more on the pulse knew otherwise @Redom @euro73.
I think we can cut Steve some slack on that one because if it were not for APRA intervention then a rate increase in the past 12 months would have been a certainty anyway. Obviously the credit crunch just accelerated it.

The reality now is for Melbourne and Sydney we just need to find the new bottom. I think with rates not moving the new bottom is the new credit roof for borrowers. Make no mistake borrowers will still be going to brokers and asking “how much can I borrow and what are my repayments”. I believe the feedback has been borrowing for the AVERAGE (read that as most of the population) has taken a 10-15%
That should play out in the next 6 months.

So where to from here in Sydney Melbourne.
My prediction is growth at inflation for a long time until either:
- Credit eases
- Significant Wage Growth
- Rates Drop some more (As their definitely are still people with capacity)

 

Say again...?

 

Falling on deaf ears... me thinks

 

I think you may have missed it...

 

I don’t know whether you seriously consider selling at this mkt. May be you are late now. There is no guarantee other cities to hold up. I don’t know how many negative poster here are already out from Sydney. Panicking the herd gives them opportunity including myself. I don’t have any in Sydney at the moment. Just waiting to see more panick, will grab in few years time.