VIC The Market has certainly changed direction - Melbourne

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by NWHT, 19th Mar, 2018.

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Which way do you think the market is headed in Melbourne?

Poll closed 23rd Jan, 2020.
  1. Strong Upwards

    0.9%
  2. Upwards

    9.3%
  3. Flatning

    23.0%
  4. Flat

    22.1%
  5. Downward

    30.8%
  6. Strong Downward

    14.0%
  1. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_20180619-193022.png
     
  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Depends on what you read, this is why I pay little attention to charts, graphs etc. as they are too broad and everything is bundled together, no way of knowing if its real??
    What is happening on the ground for me is what matters the most

    Mosman Park, WA 6012 - Suburb Profile - homesales.com.au
     
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  3. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    No probs, I'm not convinced there is a lot of movement in Perth yet either. For the sake of demonstrating the different markets in the same area theory, let's look at another chart, for another suburb in greater Perth. Pretty different outcome between the two in the last twelve months.

    Obviously two totally different suburbs with different demographics, hardly surprising different outcomes...

    Screenshot_20180619-202020.png
     
  4. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    It depends what size and how much bought it for. But I would not go above the Median. For mine it is nearly 70% capital growth from the time I build and from last 20 plus sales similar size last 2 weeks dun think it has fallen back at all.

    U contrast that with 55-57 tram rd Doncaster like 5 min walk to westfield where 2 years ago the owners paid 1.4 mil approx each and now struggling to get a bid at 2.8-2.9 mil so really didn’t go anywhere. That has peaked. Unless u are a high end guy doing refurb flips like James hird wife or Shane warne or Chris Judd wife that is a diff market the Brightons tooraks

    I think stick to below the median in pt cook and u will be alright
     
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  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Yes
    Whats interesting is Mosman Park is blue chip, high end, if the chart started in 2007 when market crashed you would see just how bad this market has been hammered.

    Another thing the Mirrabooka chart does not show that there was an actual boom between 2013-14. I was buying in this market
    Charts are just not reliable unfortunately

    MTR
     
  6. Konn

    Konn Well-Known Member

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    When you value a stock, valuing their assets is part of the job hence valuing their property. The factors in valuing a property in which you say is greater are all part of stock valuation.
    Your point was:
    "playing hedge funds stocks are different to property - there are far more factors in property than looking at a ASX200 indexes going up and down based on a few factors (that's more like gambling with some level of intellectual analysis)."
     
  7. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    I swear I don't understand a word of that...:confused:
     
  8. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    with your supreme analysis - playing CFDs, get complex options and deriatives or you just playing pure stocks of purchasing off comsec etc. seriously - i was a day trader at one stage of my life. there is less factors to consider . If you ever did a development - there are way more factors that buying a ANZ share.
     
    Last edited: 20th Jun, 2018
  9. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    the problem is you get some of these wannabes who play shares and stocks thinking they're up there in terms of analysis/intellect and have never purchased property then assume that it is easy to do so - like the one who claims there is no markets within markets. Either you are blind or never been to an auction or property inspection before.

    Seriously to buy a property vs a share is not hard at all. i could just get a trade up on IG markets on basically anything coffee, price of GOLD, USD, YEN forex trades. within minutes compared to a purchase property, auction, sale, settlement, permits, rental, development, build, sale, tax etc.
     
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  10. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Agree but no surprise. The 'stats' never lie. 60% of people in anything are very average, 20% above average, 10% excellent, 5% are off the charts and 5% are freaks. Most people fall in the first 80%.
     
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  11. Konn

    Konn Well-Known Member

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    Ah yes day trading, obviously your perspective is limited.
     
  12. Konn

    Konn Well-Known Member

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    Point proven.
     
  13. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    yeah i am sure yours is as well. by the way you sold enough RBL share to get a real deposit for a house? $1+ shares dun cut it - You should try forex trading to take it to the next level.
     
  14. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    Calling @highlighter. Just for my educational purposes...

    When Ireland was in it's thick of it's property crash, were there any markets/suburbs/streets or house that was increasing in value that you know of or heard of?
     
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  15. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    Oh well, my loss I'm sure.
     
  16. Satanoperca

    Satanoperca Active Member

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    But it has been easy for the last 5 years, go to the bank, ask for a loan for $500k to buy property, get yes, go and buy property.

    Shares, go to the bank and ask to loan $500k for shares and the answer is NO.

    Both are as equally as hard to make money in if it is not a bull market.

    What I think you are alluding to is the entry and exit of shares is much much easier than property.

    What I am alluding to, it has been, but might not be in the future, easy to borrow large amounts of money to invest in an nonliquid investment class - property.

    But regardless of the class, it is about investment amount and risk and return. Until maybe this year, property has been a pretty good bet. $500K on $50K deposit, 10% p.a CG. Problem with leverage is it works both ways. $500K on $50K deposit, -10% CG, blown your capital.
     

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  17. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    I love property and shares and in regards to which one is harder/more effort the argument about is pointless as you should be in both for a balanced portfolio (one's liquid the other one is not etc.).

    However in my observation (started looking around 2006) many "reckless, stupid ," people have made a lot of money in property in Melbourne following " you cant go wrong with bricks and mortars" and to borrow as much as they can. The GFC could have turned out differently. And many of these people wouldn't even have thought about how interest rates would be staying low for so long or know anything about QE. Often they didn't leave themselves any margin for error but has worked out very well for them. These people are sitting pretty while many people or were more financially educated sat back saw the risk and were not as reckless and now are very far behind
     
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  18. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    lol @ last post. gotta be kiddin me. The envy is oozing big time in that post.

    They took the initiative to get off their asses, take some risks with leverage and loaded into real estate in one of Australia's major cities. They sewed the seeds and subsequently gained the wealth. Not "stupid" and "reckless" at all in my books. Hell, more or less, I did just that! I'm sure many others on here did as well. And now they have gained all that wealth from Syd and Melb and to a lesser extent Brissy.

    Its so easy for people to say " could've just throw a dart and made money in Sydney" etc. Bullsh*t. How many people actually have the balls to throw those darts. Talk is easy. All that counts is action.
     
    Last edited: 20th Jun, 2018
  19. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    To the contrary it has been much harder to get a loan to buy property in the last 5 years I couldn't. The days of just asking where over by then. But I had no problem getting a loan to buy $500k of share exposure with a pre purchase plan, no hoops to jump through, no tax returns or financials needed. Just have to pay the interest in advance which was only about 1.5%p/a, the put fees about the same, and the brokers commission all up about 4%, and a little bit more if currency hedging was used.
     
  20. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    Just my observation not really envy as done well in both shares and property. Clearly doing better in property due to leverage. I guess to look at equation properly one cannot put primary residence into equation and just compare investment properties to shares but IP gains still better shares atm

    A2M @ 1.62 (>550%gain) TWE (>330%) BKL (>180%)CSL (>140%) in the last 3-4 years but have lost on others but if I had leveraged as much on my share portfolio as my IP portfolio then the shares would be way ahead

    I love looking into property more because of PPOR can provide the desired lifestyle for myself and family