VIC The Market has certainly changed direction - Melbourne

for the pt cook analogy - i would say 400-600Kish in pt cook going to 1-1.5 mil houses in templestowe or templestowe lower (the prices mirror doncaster). there are some townhouses in the 800kish or some olde school 80s-90s villa 650K which i think is what they may have gone for. either that or they took a big mortgage - who knows? That i don't believe that this the norm. ppl moving from pt cook to templestowe lower majority wise. i know both areas as lived around there and have previously owned in both areas. Majority of ppl who buy pt cook are new starters or ppl with limited set budgets. couple who has worked maybe 3-5 years or is looking to start a family who needs a bit more space. i don't think templestowe or templestowe lower is cheaper than doncaster/doncaster east - it is about on par some less some more.

For balywn you are right - maybe balwyn north going on from doncaster. but there is markets within markets - it is impossible that every single suburb from doveton, frankston to albert park to werribee is in the same bucket. Some suburbs maybe similar some not, some the same.

 

Sorry, probably confused things with the Point Cook reference. These were all "upgrades" (location upgrades - moving from full sized houses to full-sized houses in a more desirable location as they could afford to do so) - my point was that they would have purchased in Doncaster, but couldn't find anything suitable for their budget so had to settle for Templestowe i.e. there is a ripple effect on property prices.

 

pretty big upgrades from pt cook in terms of moving to Templestowe. that's like 2.5 times a house in pt cook. Doncaster is at a peak went to a double block off tram rd. that passed in at 2.9 mil. once you're above the 2 mil mark there are only that many buyers.

 

Yep, all were immigrants that worked and saved hard, got promotions and sought out a better education for their kids once they started a family.

Not an uncommon story. I know plenty of previous generation families that did the same thing - immigrated to areas like Footscray, Preston or Springvale originally (fairly rough areas 25 years ago) and later moved into places like Doncaster, Balwyn or Glen Waverley when they could afford to. Everyone wants to live in the best place they can and live where they can afford to in the mean time.

 

This. People change their purchase due to their means. But fundamentally most buyers are pretty similar in needs. Location for schools and transport and family. House big enough for family. Some sort of yard.

 

I’m not a lay person. I just don’t assume I am smarter than everyone around me. Most of the people who think they are - are not.

 

that is true - everyone wants to live in the best possible location (but only one thing allows that to do so $$) i want to live in brighton/toorak too - but yes that limits it. It also holds that not everyone is equal - and there is a diff market for the ones that can afford X dollars and ones that don't. The pt cook one that is not a majority that is all i can say. within 25 years a lot of things can happen - u could fly to the moon by then

 

No offence but imo anyone who thinks there is no such thing as markets within markets in real estate, is a layperson to real estate.

Re thinking being smarter than everyone around me, nope I never think that. I've learnt a lot from members over here. But anyone who thinks there is no such thing as markets within markets is clueless. Not a personal attack, just the way I see it.

 

Houses are a lot more homogeneous than art though. That's stretching things way too far. Houses are as homogeneous as cars.

 

The issue is not about houses, but markets. And markets can vary greatly. Even streets within the same suburb not far from each other can vary greatly in prices, having their own submarkets.

 

Yeah, there is absolutely no doubt that different segments of the market move at different times and can even move in different directions. Perth is a great case study for this, desirable suburbs rising at the moment with lower priced suburbs still falling, looks like two different markets to me.

 

That may well be true for people starting out with young families, but when making my last PPOR purchase, having a school, transport, a large home and yard were the exact things I steered clear of.
For an IP however, different story.

 

+1

i agree - no one is saying someone is smarter than one over the other - but over generalization is just something everyone is calling out.

 

Way more factors in property than stocks? Property is a subset of an asset which a company owns.

 

What does this even mean? property can be owned by individuals or trust or companies. so what?

 

This is basically the opposite of my opinion. So I’ll step out of the discussion now.

 

Yep agreed.

The people who think they can out wit the market...well...are idiots...its like trying to catch a falling knife. Lots of amateurs who have yet to see through one cycle......

The cycle in Melbourne has definitely turned.....sure the more expensive suburbs are the ones which are dropping the fastest.....the only thing holding up the older suburbs is the number of people moving to Melbourne and relative affordability.

 

No need to step out mate, we'll just after to disagree on that.

 

Interesting debate. I am just an idiot to real estate and learning from others. So in summary what you guys say that there are mini markets (pockets) within a big market and price can go up and down depending on the buyers and sellers of that market.If the values of certain pockets (mini markets) falling doesn’t mean that other pockets of the big market will follow.
Now my question to @melbournian
from your experience please tell me should I worry about going ahead with a H&L package for PPOR at upper point cook which is due to be titled in April 2019? I read today that Melbourne market heading south in the news.

 

Nothing in Perth is rising
Certain desirable suburbs/product is selling quickly, but these markets are still price sensitive

Even development sites in inner city must be priced correctly otherwise they will sit on the market

Saw this recently will duplex block inner city over priced been on market 6 months, still not sold.......desirable, scarce but not priced correctly for market conditions

MTR