VIC The Market has certainly changed direction - Melbourne

Debate on growth is valid point, but problem is after boom comes correction. This never changes go back decades, same pattern

One of the common mistakes investors make is buying at peak. History shows downturns/corrections timeframe last much longer than boom cycles

This .... with threat of interest rate rises will impact on all markets

Lets Review this thread at end of the year, I expect volume to increase in all markets and if I sm wrong....egg on my face

 

Which market are we talking about? I love how commentators think there is a single Melbourne market.... If you're buying and selling in a particular area, then it's practically irrelevant what is happening in another.

 

I don’t understand the logic of this.

In Sydney you could have thrown a dart at a map and made money during the boom. Sure some places better. But rising tides lift all ships.

If it turns downward, you can throw a dart at the board and get a house that will be flat / lose money. Some slightly more than others but in general, When the tide goes out all ships end up on the sandbank.

Sure there is variation from Suburb to suburb. However the whole market up until the super high end is interconnected. Only the trophy homes are disconnected.

 

Well actually in a bad enough economic environment, you might also have the super rich trying to cash out. Some will also be forced to liquidate their holdings to shore up their cashflow or support their businesses. That's when you will see massive million dollar discounts.

 

Exactly
Its a myth to believe that blue chip never drops in value, just look at blue chip suburbs in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth they all fell back in previous corrections.

 

who voted upwards.... lets talk in 3 months time, see if you change your mind, we are peak folks.

 

Really happy to review this thread at the end of the year to compare @MTR - FYI my referece point is dwellings (house or villa unit) with good land content and close to transport in suburbs with median house prices <$700k.

There are simply too many incentives (FHOG, low interest rates, large influx of new buyers) for these suburbs to go backwards over the next 9 months.

 

A lot will depend on how the current global economy goes and if Syd/Melb bubbles pop.

interest rates can shoot up pretty fast (especially if we get into a US/China trade war situation and funding dries up suddenly.) and financing become increasingly tight.

large influx of buyers can become avalanche of panic sellers when sentiment flips,

FHOG will only induce buying if they can get loans(which means jobs need to be secure) or if buying makes more sense than renting(again large supply when sellers start selling) and of course FHB are also afraid of a falling market, maybe even more so than seasoned investors.

History is a useful guide, however should things go south this time, it's definitely not going to be as pretty as 10 years ago when we had the GFC

 

Interesting

 

I think that’s my point. The market might be flat or dropping, but trophy homes on impacted by the budgets of the super wealthy. The flat or turning market now had no impact on Shane warnes 20mil sale because the economy is doing ok generally.

 

that is true - different markets - ppl keep talking about falls - yeah (Doncaster, Balwyn all the higher end suburbs are falling on and off for years) . Even Bentleigh & B. East had so many passed in yesterday, the thing is once you start selling houses for 2 mil (there is only a limited pool of buyers).

what some ppl don't realize there will always be newer suburbs - look at tecoma you could get one below 500K a year plus ago and now the median is 700Kish . Better than doing a dev and putting it . now that's being a smarter investor.

The way I look at it - For the so called "smarter investors" looking at the whole market putting links everday - is like playing indexes on CFDs on movements on ASX200. however some shares within that ASX200 will perform while some won't - if you're betting against the whole market where your investment is spreaded on the index option yeah I would be worried. but that is not the case in property. I mean Wollert having it's first 1 mil dollar sale -which is really out of no-where. a CBA share is diff from a blackmores share. there was an auction in Toorak yesterday where the reserve was smashed by a 1 mil. Half of those commenters probably don't even come to Melbourne.

I came back from auctions in a rainy day - unreasonable expectations at a st albans property. I asked about a covenant during the auction -and it passed it. pretty arrogant agents - when the discussions failed and highest bidder left - I said to him what does the vendor want ? he said you're the not the highest bidder - I said mate your highest bidder just took off in his car outside - then he goes it is 800K. a case of super underquoting and over expectations. I would say it is a bit flat now in St Albans.

Went to Ivanhoe East - this property had 17 Bidders and went over 500K over reserve to sell at 2 mil. (Smart investors I presume) - and that is the heavy rain.

Same as Epping 1.38 mil (in epping) for a ACZ growth zone property - in Epping? yes it is.

Though reservoir seems to be cooling off. and now pushing across to Lalor (went to one dog looking property in Lalor and there was a major fight with 3-4 bidders overlooking the train (the flow on effect) Similar to now when no glen Waverley and Wantirna South to be honest, some of the prices of the houses are the same

for me - is the quality of the asset - which either being in the higher density zone, in a reknowed school zone, public transport will always be a boom by itself. Having an economic boom is purely a bonus As for stats on Travancore and Docklands failing in resale (they're OTP) - that's been happening for 15+ years now. but if I told you a 2 bedroom apartment in docklands has been racking in 200K a year in rental for 2 years running - would you believe it?

 

I think some ppl should buy more than 1 property or stick to shares LOL

 

values in both Melbourne and Sydney have declined 3% yoy since January, Melbourne was up +8% and Sydney up +1.3%: Sydney continues to drag down national property prices

Today Melbourne is up +5% and Sydney down -2.1% : CoreLogic Home Value Index - Daily Indices | CoreLogic

 

Votes say it all

 

Yeah - sure a lot of ppl voted for Hilary and the labor party

 

I think Melb started turning mid-late 2017 according to Steve McKnight, he is always ahead of the crowd, finger on the pulse

Lets watch clearance rates over next 3 months

 

There are a lot of mkts in Melbourne high end to low end which many here won’t be able to touch but talk about as it does drag it down the whole state - Glen Waverley I have seen same block size on same street my cousin lives vary from 1.3 to 2 mil but for some maybe only the 2-3 suburbs they think. represent the whole of melb representation.

 

Interesting market sentiment changing, now we are seeing more negative threads on Melb

You also get higher growth close to peak

Suckers and winners, dont be a sucker, now is not the time to be jumping in, high risk.

 

Maybe it's a case of the lower end is still active and the upper end has lost all steam? This will push down medians.

 

Something like this, next 3-6 months will be telling. Evidence will be the figures