The great deleverage

Interest only loans are contracting at their fastest pace.

Rents continue to slide

Prices falling... one can understand those who want to avoid further losses and sell now before FONGO really sets in.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/9886430

 

That article is over a year old.

 

older than his account

 

Very astute research @Oliver Shane

 

Oops must have grabbed the wrong link... interesting though... did it come true? Would you call a 15% slide in Sydney a reasonable outcome of a deleverage?

 

ive only been here a few weeks, and im not a big investor with alot to lose, so i have no real bias, but what is the reason that you post here ? every post of yours reeks of "i cant wait to say i told you so when all you who own property get what comin to ya"

are you a troll ? you obviously had to dig pretty far back to find an article to give your daily post of negativity. you could of posted the 2 articles on AFR today which forecast property as having decent gains over the next decade, or do you prefer 1 year old articles

 

Today’s UBS global research highlighted this, in fact using the term “the great deleverage”.. alas i tried to find a similar article with same info, alas I copied the wrong one...

UBS highlighted this has another couple of years to run..

I prefer data oriented opinions / news rather than fluffy sentiment pieces...

Like prices / clearance rates / credit market moves etc.

Sorry if these data updates stress you out... have you recently purchased? I find the people that attack the person not the ball on here have typically purchased in Sydney recently or are overexposed and can get quite emotional

 

I'd suggest that the price drops over the last year are more a function of restricted lending. The banks won't lend as much money, this has an effect on how much people can pay for a property. This results in a correction of sorts.

I haven't seen any fire sales anywhere. No doubt there are some people who have sold because the financial strain of IO loans reverting to P&I, but it's not a systemic issue.

I have a lot of clients affected by this. Today I'm working with two different clients asking what their options are. Neither are in financial stress, we're simply implementing strategies to make the adjustment easier.

So no, this isn't the armageddon that was predicted. If anything the market is showing signs that it's reached the bottom and may start rising again in the near future.

BTW: UBS is hardly a reputable source in their market commentary.

 

For all the haters, here’s a link to some of the source data.

Housing credit sets another record low

 

Why isn’t UBS reputable?

They were early about a prediction of price decline in residential property prices, hence most on here categorised them as alarmist etc..

Same as @sash and others on here.

But in this situation they have been proven right, their economics team is very well regarded by institutional investors but as they are more bearish than most, perhaps not loved so much by property industry

 

honestly mate, am i that transparent ?! im actually more bearish than anything but your agenda is so apparent, id actually enjoy the trolling if it wasnt so obvious

 

Boom!

 

Why is having non-consensus opinions regarded as trolling on here?

 

Why is anyone who disagrees with you a hater?

 

@frankjeager is not disagreeing here (in fact he seems to agree), he's just calling him a troll.

 

So we may see another interest rate cut in July

Markets scale back chance of RBA cut in July

 

Interest-only time bomb defused by lower rates

 

Oliver Shane eh ?.....yeah riiiight.........

 

In any given trade there is someone who benefits more than the other. Commonly people refer to this as "there is a winner and a loser". Not the greatest way of putting it as it's definitely antagonistic.

If I am not mistaken a large part of this community aims at celebrating investments that "win".

If your investment strategy or financial future is pinned on declining prices you are probably going to barrack for dropping prices.

On the flip side if your strategy relies on property prices increasing you'll likely share stories that reflect your position.

It's not rocket science.

Interestingly there aren't many people here that fall dead centre and advocate for no change (prices increases matching inflation).