NSW The definitive Sydney 2022 Q1 and Q2 market analysis and conclusions

Hey hey hey Booboo... smarter than the average bear....
Time to go get some picnic baskets....

Sorry could not help myself.

Yeah 100% agree.... lots sticking their heads in the sand...some even making the commentary Perth is no good. Ya know the small men....

 

It would only be good news for those who are serious about buying. Many people will still whinge and won't buy, exactly like the 2018 dip. The amount of people crying unaffordable will still be crying and won't buy.

 

I think most people here believe Sydney to be generally cooling with more to come.

 

A minimum of 136 pages of posts MTR. We're a bit slow, and online egos have to be fed. I must admit its all quite pathetic. That goes for me too haha.

 

Agreed. We also have to specify over what period we are talking about. If you look at a chart of real estate prices since 2008 and the zero interest rate era - corrections have been short lived and recover sharply.

 

Lol..... Sydney sits 2nd in the world in the least affordable cities to buy a house. Even if the median price falls back ~10%, I doubt we would even drop out of the top 5. Wage growth hasn't even cracked 3% in 9 years while house prices have sky rocketed.

You can have a look at our median wages Employee Earnings and Hours, Australia, May 2021 and tell me that the median house price in Sydney to median incomes seems affordable to you. A lot of people live pay check to pay check and based on your PC profile, you may not see that.

It definitely doesn't surprise me though that you think these people are 'crying and whinging'.

 

100% spot on with your assessment.

It just shows how out of touch people are from reality.....

 

I’m not sure Sydney is all that unaffordable vs rest of world comparator cities. It may appear so but comparative analysis is rarely done correctly. No expert here though, just high level observations.

Our ‘median’ product is much much better and of higher value (newer city, fewer people, more land).

The comparisons are very rarely done correctly. Many people who come from overseas recognise and appreciate this, much more than a headline grabbing media article without context provides.

Our choices and community expectations are much much higher here than a lot of people around the world expect.

You get a 3bdr apartment for sub 1m here in many suburbs. Much of Asia’s middle class would like this product. 600-800k is available too in outer areas like Liverpool/etc. 1bdrs are available for a few hundred K, with rates at 3% the actual cost is a few hundred a week for a single borrower, which is well within affordability benchmarks vs median net incomes.

Comparisons are instead made between a a 600sqm block with a 800-1000k build cost, pools, etc to an equivalent 3bdr old loft home with no pool, 1/5th of the land, etc that you get worldwide.

They are entirely different products.

Put in another way, basic comparisons are comparing a Sydney 2022 Ferrari to a 1986 Corrolla and saying that Sydney is more expensive.

Recent Sydney planning changes are promoting a lot more supply of middle ring type product that a lot of comparator countries have. These on median values are ~half the cost of the 600sqm homes given the smaller sizes and land carve ups. It will take a long time for the ‘median’ product in Sydney to reflect the ‘median’ product in Paris/London.

 

Yeah nah, as per Redom post.

 

Such a good point. The same can be said about the median price for different states in Australia. Median price doesn't mean much without information on land size and build size, proximity to CBD, build quality (age, renovations) and a bunch of other factors.

 

Gotta protect your ego. Glad you get support here online.

 

But what does houses being expensive relative to median wages mean for future prices of houses?
The answer seems to be, the houses turn into apartments over time.

In short, so what if houses are unaffordable? Is anyone saying London or New York City or San Francisco houses are going to become cheaper?

 

I’m pretty sure that many people everywhere in the world live paycheck to paycheck. Not sure if there’s a metric for this worldwide though, would be interesting. Savings rates perhaps? Our data suggests this is pretty good at the moment, but the government stimulus’s are a big part of this story.

Personally I love that Sydney (Australia) offers those who want the to do better the opportunity to do so. Same principles apply in many cities in the world, but Australia does this better than most. A priveledge of being alive in this city today in a technology driven world. Not one many people have where I’m historically from have access to. Having an economy that has been on a tear means that these opportunities are more available than ever at the moment.

 

Nothing to do with ego. We can agree to disagree. Not sure why some folks wanna make things personal.

 

In correct....inner London is expensive....but outer London about 40 klms is cheaper than Sydney.

Even in some pockets of Inner London...it is cheaper than Sydney.

 

All true, but the reality is our policy makers could have chosen to take measures to improve affordability and make our cities a better place for existing citizens . Its chosen to enrich bankers, reas, investors and those with the best located properties. High immigration, bank guarantees, fhogs, neg gearing, half cgt, ppor exclusion from pension testing, aofm, govt mortgage funding, "emergency" low rates whenever houses start to fall, first home deposit assistance, not enforcing firb duties, land supply restriction and local council red tape, etc etc etc etc. None of the measures add to supply or reduce demand, affordability is the opposite of what they want. It could have been different, and still could be, but not without a major economic crash.

 

Exactly..... as I have said before .... you will see who is swimming naked when the tide recedes.

 

Hey mate, I understand this can be a very emotional topic and it's true that buying property in Sydney is not affordable for everyone, but even today it is possible to buy 2 bedroom apartments in Sydney for less than $450k

E.g. I was emailed this 2 weeks ago:


And there are people who turn their nose up at buying something like this because they want to live next to the harbour bridge (exaggerating in jest).

I personally know someone at my workplace who has been talking about buying since 2017 but it's never the right time. Either rates are going up, prices are falling or prices have gone up too much. Last I spoke to him, he said 'I should have done something when I could, it's too late now', but he continues to rent at coogee, close to the beach.

So people with this kind of attitude will always find Sydney too expensive no matter the price.

 

110% true.

Or this...Campsie is on the other side of Burwood..... less than 13 klms to city. It is about attitude....

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-campsie-139174999

 

Are you for real??

You just said some people are out of touch for thinking Sydney isn't totally unaffordable.

Then in your next post you're pointing to affordable units and saying it's about attitude...


Quickest 180 I've ever seen..