"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

that was 2008 GFC, many got burnt. I guess there will be those who picked up some bargains and sitting pretty today.

Not trying to be negative but I am a realist, while you have bull markets todau everyone is making money so share market is brilliant investment...... its the talk of the town so to speak......
When it goes from bull to bear market then we will see a different story, especially for those who have not yet experienced this and are funding the debt.

I see this as no different to property markets, don't buy any asset class which is close to peak..... I have not researched share market, don't know if this is the case.... but seems many are calling peak

I will just sit back and watch the markets both property and share market.

 

You have to get it very wrong a lot more though

 

Maybe im a amateur but I find it not easy to think with my head and not my emotion... I'm just about the world's least emotional person but and when I see even seasoned investors still purchase in melb and Sydney now I feel like I'm potentially missing out. However my head does say "peak of the narker"

However I've been saying melbourne is at its peak for the past 3 years and it's just gone up and up and up. I feel like I've missed my chance to by my dream ppor

 

I don't know that market well but anything that encourages FHBers will fuel demand. At some point that will stop, possibly with a couple of IR rises. In any downturn those who over committed will suffer. Often FHBers.

 

House prices dangerously dumb:

https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBzXg3k?m=en-au

 

Good idea, I'm doing the same

Have patience my friend, your time will come.
Maybe convince yourself that you've missed your chance for now.

Markets are cyclical, there will be a dip for you to get on-board
so save your money for a deposit and wait.

Interest rates will go higher and the vendors will become negotiable again.

 

I think Melb started booming in 2013, generally booms last around 3 years, but I think the low interest environment has kept it buzzing along and immigration has helped immensely.

Is it really too late for primary residence in Melb? Different rules apply when buying primary residence, no idea what your situation is but there are some undervalued areas in the inner city, I think Flemington may still represent good value. A cottage and renovate??

I also think if Melb immigration remains number 1 it will be a good long term investment proposition.

But seriously, booms don't last forever, no market is invincible eventually they correct, we just don't know when?

All the best.

MTR

 

@MTR I think Sydney was around 2013 and Melbourne a little later, maybe 2014? By the end of 2015 it had certainly boomed but big jumps since then in some areas. I think Melbourne still has 12 to 18 months. Sydney maybe less.

 

Actually the same time as Syd 2013 as I was looking at Reservoir, Thomastown and Lalor and they were all moving, it was very hard to secure a site and auctions were very strong, but momentum just continued.

 

I think they are both done but what do you think of Perth?

 

Do you think it started there and moved out? I don't think my area was moving much in 2013.

 

Sydney: watch out for the dead cat bounce.
Melbourne: don't discount the FHB factor
Perth: no signs of recovery.

Perth has low prices and very low rents. Rents don't seem to be stabilising yet and there is a lot of stock on market. The market may have bottomed out in terms of price drops but could languish for years before signs of recovery. I don't mind Perth for a long term play if you can wear the holding costs. Investing in property should really be a long term prospect really.

 

I think developers saw the writing on the wall and there was not enough stock

 

Yeah that's a very good point.
I'm just looking for a place that is both Good investment and ppor. South East. East.
Decent block of land. Can be old as long as it's got potential. Flemington is fine.

I'd rather sacrifice a few luxuries and buy a good investment than a poor investment with bells and whistles.


Obviously the boom will or has ended but I am hoping for a 10% correction. I really Don t like buying in a sellers market or having many competitions as it disallows me to negotiate.

A 15% drop would be good but somehow I don't think it will happen despite all the crash talk

 

I was watching tv on the weekend. (Shock and horror!)

If there will be changes to the CGT discount for property (and I think they'll do it as the government wants to get more tax dollars and make it easier for aspiring home owners, win-win for the government), then investment in property in Australia is going to be a less attractive investment. Which means less investor dollars. Which means lower demand. Which means lower prices....

Existing property investments are likely to be grandfathered and its likely there will no change to CGT for share investments.

 

LOL, it doesn't matter how many dead cat bounces we get.
I think the boom would have been over a couple of years ago but the RBA dropped interest rates when there was no need for it, plus we had the Chinese getting their cash out of China so the feast kept going until now.

Is there more Chinese money?
I think this will determine the future state of the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
If there is no more money coming in, then IMO the writing is on the wall.
The correction is inevitable.

Either way, local people will be stuck with very high debt and holding an asset which is not likely to be increasing in value for a very long time.

Also, Perth property isn't cheap, its just cheaper than Sydney and Melbourne and if you increase interest rates by a couple of %, the already low demand will get even lower.

 

Except that there are a lot of property investors who are buy and hold - CGT doesn't enter into it as they don't intend to sell, or they have a large portfolio and may sell one to pay down many others. Those intending to LOR won't care about CGT.

 

Agree with this. I think Steveo gave his mates great deal before he left the job.

 

That's the thing investors may think Perth property is cheap but in falling markets it may be expensive tomorrow, we just don't know, that's why I stay out of them, I like to protect my capital. I know all about cycles, been around the block a few times now.

 

We should all be doing this.
Imagine the scenario where our 20% deposit (which we have worked very hard to save up) disappears over the next year or 2 and being stuck in a low growth cycle.
At the same time we continue to lose money and are unable to sell and get out.