"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

not convinced US Fed will raise rates?

 

6% market rate, not reserve. would take ages to get there from under 4% currently.

 

I'm not convinced US will raise, they have been saying they will for years, if they could, it would have been done already. . If they do it won't be much anyhow.
And all this spending on infrastructure trump keeps saying...where will they get the cash to do it? If Obama couldn't get it.

 

Maybe he will just look behind the cushions on the couch. That's where I look when I need to find money

 

Obama was too busy with pushing his Obamacare through. Besides he had Bernanke do QE 1 , 2 and 3 remember?

Trump can just get the FED or private investors to buy infrastructure bonds. Who doesn't like investing in toll roads and collecting tolls for ages after ;P

Besides, there is supposed to be hyperinflation from monetary stimulus, it just hasn't happened as after GFC the US economy was just too crap. Now that things have sort of stabilized over there, it seems that any further stimulus will cause inflation which will then have to be countered by rate hikes.

 

I am feeling very bullish about US at the moment, perhaps because housing market has been booming since 2011, only seeing blue sky at the moment

 

Perhaps it will, I just can't take trump seriously yet. It's ok to say he will do this and do that, but without backing he will be at a standstill.

 

Interests are going up
Eyes on other majors as Westpac increases mortgage rates

 

I am saving for the crash so I can buy, buy, buy!

 

According to Mr David, 2017 is when it will all start to unravel, and it will start in the West. If the Perth market crashes, that will begin to affect the banking system’s ability to lend.
“It’s going to be a disaster. By the end of 2017 the housing market will crash, and at least one of the big four banks will either be bailed out, go bust or be nationalised,” he said.​

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...bble-pop-in-2017/story-fndban6l-1227365483287

tic tock

 

Old news
He may have called it in May 2015
But the Perth market crashed long ago and everything else has been on the up & up since
So I've moved the date to January 2019 for the buble to burst
(Just after Trump gets outed for "Trump Gate" )

 

That's a good strategy. In 2015, you call the crash for 2017. Cue 2017 and no crash, rebook for 2019. If no crash by 2019, rebook for 2021. Eventually you will be right and be lauded as a genius!

 

We have a bubble in complacency

 

Hi @tung and welcome to the forums!

 

Hey think you got this one right though. The failure of the healthcare bill repeal even before it got submitted does demonstrate that Trump does NOT have all the republican support from Congress that I thought he would have.

Seems markets are still hopeful though but I have now changed my view that Trump will only be able to fulfill his election promises only via executive orders like the laptop ban. Anything big like the tax overhaul or the infrastructure stimulus and spending cuts will not get enough support.

The real concern now is if he can get the debt ceiling raised. The limit has been reinstated since March 15 couple weeks back and so far their treasury has enough to spend but will run out in the coming months since there has been no change to spending. The last brush with USA almost having a "debt default" was scary enough.
Remember the debt ceiling? Here it comes again

If the FED does independently raise rates and the optimism from Trump's expected infrastructure stimulus runs out the world could be in a lot of economic pain.

 

Have no idea what will happen. Every time I think I have half an understanding,they do something different.

 

First time poster

I see the market softening end of next year and a small pull back overall but some suburbs will be impacted more than others. Speaking to people that have seen a few cycles it seems the same thing is happening again but longer, and will hold tight as the home is the last thing sold hence the little price drop.

 

Hi Micky

The reason for the initial pull back , is the lack of really hot competition pushing auctions pushing higher than expected . so one or two bidders instead of 6-7 people desperate on not missing out ...

The boom always goes longer than expectation .

Desperate sellers don't come out till later eg in GFC .

Cliff

 

lol

add this "time will tell" in the quotes

and it's perfect

 

Yes, it is looks like to be sooner, these are the list of news that I have read so far, along with Vern Gowdie book The End of Australia which tells people that the bubble is about to get popped soon.

S&P says more borrowers falling behind for first time on mortgage repayments

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...y/news-story/65ff524e324a8068f0210f5e2867254b

Late mortgage payments on the rise: S&P

But according to Phillip J. Anderson and Catherine Cashmore (Buyers agent in Melbourne) the economic collapse will be around 2019.

Therefore it is better to invest in Physical Gold bar since it is easier to sell than property.

Note: I am planning to fix my loan for 3 years only so that I am safe from the catastrophe.