"The Crash" has been called... end of 2017.

$36 billion dwelling finance in December - the biggest month on record.

 

I wonder if this relates to the crazy number of actions in November in Melbourne and Sydney?

 

We did find what we were looking for. This was a property that first listed at $580k and relisted at $480k around 6 months later after failing to sell at the original price.

It's an interesting project. We have never tackled anything of this scale before.

 

@petewargent what happened in January 2016? Did finance go up or down? If November is a big month in Sydney and Melbourne again, we could see a new record in December 2016. Otherwise the markets have cooled? It will be interesting to follow.

 

Just a reminder of the prediction:-

According to Mr David, 2017 is when it will all start to unravel, and it will start in the West. If the Perth market crashes, that will begin to affect the banking system’s ability to lend.

“It’s going to be a disaster. By the end of 2017 the housing market will crash, and at least one of the big four banks will either be bailed out, go bust or be nationalised,” he said.
​

Will housing bubble pop in 2017?

Tic Toc. 14 months to go.

 

Early, mid or late 2017?

 

“It’s going to be a disaster. By the end of 2017 the housing market will crash, and at least one of the big four banks will either be bailed out, go bust or be nationalised,” he said.

 

Ah, thanks Terry. eyesight needs another check. if anything is going to happen, it will show cracks by mid 2017.

 

Come to Perth. Something is already happening!

Maybe winter 2017 will be quiet in Sydney and Melbourne. Whether the markets pick up again in Spring is anyone's guess. Is Sydney really going to crash though, or will it be more like a long slow deflation?

 

I lived in south of Perth for a couple of years and I like some of the suburbs like Winthrop but I don't think they will fall dramatically.

 

i wish perthguy as far as i can see its just stagnant. not really even dropping honestly

 

I like Winthrop too. Even with prices tumbling it's hard for me to see areas like that being affordable for me.

Come over to City of Belmont. Lots of discounting around here. I just wish it would ripple out to Bayswater and Bedford, but prices there seem to be holding up just fine

 

Sydney's median house price has increased by $300,000 since 'the crash' was called early 2014 (Residex)

 

So people waiting for the fabled crash before they buy have basically blown a potential gain of $300k? Ouch!

 

Colleagues brought up the "crash" topic today. They weren't aware of the regulatory changes that are being made.

A true crash would see the Sydney-wide median dropping below the $600k mark it reached in 2004. Unlikely.

Generally, I'm expecting stagnation not deflation. We may see dips or corrections in some parts of Sydney. I'd regard a 5% drop in a suburb/region median a dip. Anything beyond that (say 10%) a correction.

I think the new APRA serviceability rules will go a long way to reduce probability of mortgage defaults driving increases in forced/fire/distressed sales that affect the median.

 

Still out of my reach unfortunately

Would it be unreasonable for me to ask for a 70% drop? I don't eat smashed avocado, I promise!

 

Imagine the price of smavo amidst a 70% correction! I know prices are sticky downward...

 

My guess is Melbourne and Sydney will continue to do well in 2017.
2018 will be a different story, can't see that far ahead, need a bigger crystal ball.

 

What's the issue with Belmont and Cloverdale exactly? They don't seem too far from the CBD and have a lower price point. Is it the demographic? Is it industrial etc?

 

Too close to airport? flight path?