The bear gang is out in force.

Hey guys,

So when I lurked this forum for a long time it was during the boom and everyone was sure it would keep going, besides a few.

When I started posting I was bearish but didn’t get a lot of support. I actually remember even recently posting on the poll that I thought Sydney could go down 15% and people commented “big call”.

Most of the time I got shouted down by bulls.

I just wanted to say I can’t believe how far the other way we have gone. Bunches of people who never really posted or handles I don’t know well are so sure that this will go on and seem to have 100% conviction about the length and depth of the decline. It’s actually making it hard to have quality discussions here.

I just wanted to say - everyone, things are never as good as you think they are or bad as you think they are.

The market goes up and down. Fundamentally, I still believe in Sydney and Melbourne more than any other Australian cities long term.

Also, I was always planning to buy this year as I’ve been waiting more than 2 years. The same way the crazy optimism here added to putting me off during the boom, it’s actually making me think this is the darkest and more fear filled part of the decline. Since I have no issues trying to catch a falling knife, this may actually solidify my choice to purchase this year. Like when we got our last PPOR in the GFC.

Anyway, I am just fascinated by the heard mentality we are showing.

Have fun out there. I do believe keeping your powder dry on investments for the next little bit isn’t the worst idea tho. For those of you who havnt maxes yourselves out already....

 

Specifically with regards to 'the bear gang'..


---David Attenborough voice

I guarantee you most of the eternally compulsive super bear, never guts to dare folks who mostly lurk in the shadows of the sludge ghettos sorry economic threads, feeding off their own habitual pessimism and inaction underscored by their somewhat hidden, partly anti capitalist ideological roots and smitten..

I guarantee you these folks have no idea about wealth creation and have no intention of ever buying anything.

For the rest of us its business as usual and downturns in markets is nothing to be feared or shocked by.

 

This statement is much more fun when read in a David Attenborough voice.

 

@mues To be fair, by most indicators, Australia is in a somewhat bearish state at the moment, not just the housing market. So it's logical that the market economics discussion would follow. But for sure, it goes hyped both ways.

Personally I am watching the economy very closely. Like you, I bought assets during/directly after the GFC, and so against conventional wisdom I believe there is great opportunity in timing the market This could be a once in a lifetime entry point if played well.

We should all, myself included, try to look past our own agendas when discussing the market. Easier said than done, but data helps.

 

DONE

 

I live in Nollamara,WA houses going not like hotcakes anymore ,i watching this very closely here ,because i like to buy my own home too ,but not like that,they are still way to expensive,
I am not getting lured in by the real estate gurus and shouting the bottom is in ,it is not in
because of credit restrictions

 

If you want to buy in Sydney , wait until the months after the election . If there's a double whammy of labor is state and federal , the market will be worse then .

Personally I'll wait for 6-7 years , by which time I'll have ridden the boom in Brisbane and Adelaide and Sydney won't be dramatically higher . ( though I watch all the time and modify my actions depending on the market )

Cliff

 

Such a bold statement. “Don’t buy in 6-7 years unless I’m wrong at which I will change my mind”

I’ll get you a fence to sit on

 

I have found it difficult to have quality discussions for some time now. As a result, I post less frequently. Example:

Housing slump "worst in decades"

I feel like I have invested well during the Perth downturn and I have been arguing for some time the current downturn isn't the end of the world. The reception to my posts has been pretty hostile considering I am a property investor posting about property investing on a property investment forum. It's discouraging!

 

That's the reality of the market place . No one can predict what WILL happen . I'm always curious about people who want to have a set plan and say they will stick to it . Doesn't work like that .

Markets change / are unpredictable .

Four years ago , we bought in Brisbane with the expectation of the Sydney boom moving to Brisbane and then being to sell in Brisbane for a profit and pay done some properties we have in Hobart .

Guess what , banking changes occured and stopped the boom every where except Hobart .

So , we subdivided a block of four units which we paid 220 for in the early 2000's . One of the units just sold for over 300 and the others are now going on the market .

So the plan changed to sell in Hobart, pay off debt in Brisbane . Not what I expected , but happy with the end result .

Who'd have predicted Hobart to boom before Brisbane , but one man , David Walsh , has changed the perception of Hobart and now it's a cool place .

Cliff

 

Despite global warming.

 

@Perthguy @Simon Hampel

I have said for a while

The forum has to decide what it is in some way.

Is it a property investment forum or just a forum that chats about property and ****.

The discussion is defiantly gone off property and investment. If you are positive you get shouted down. @Sackie totally agree the negative sentiment from a few guys on here. Is the same guys that have tried and failed to get into the property market. Keep saying they are waiting for some amazing opportunity.The great investors are buying in other state or and other assets in the current market.

@muller23

So Perth has been downward trending since 2014 so 5 years.

So if the market eases for another 5 years you have spent 1 decade renting?
If you are NOT a property investor. Buy a place get on with life.
Maybe some of us have more than 1 life time.

 

I like renting,easy, nothing to paint,nothing to repair ,while I waiting the markets to come down here.
that's life choice,we could buy outright a nice property ,but not at these prices

 

There are a lot of different sections and threads. This is the "property market economics" section and since our biggest are markets are currently experiencing their most significant downturn in 30 years, I fail to see why anyone is obliged to talk it up. It's a big and developing event.

Syd and Melb are great cities with global appeal. They'll recover at some point and the economics section will be filled with positive data again.

 

I'm new to all this rhetoric but I still don't understand this "falling knife" analogy. When a knife hits my kitchen floor I can hear its clang and I can see it lying there before my eyes.

Property prices obviously, you can't be sure you've hit the bottom until they rebound so how is it a useful analogy? I don't get it.

 

No one knows it's hit the bottom...the ones that think they know OR say more to come are full of it.

Just like some posters here claim they seen 10 property cycles but hold a 9-5 job still.

 

Hey @Illusivedreams,

When I think back to the best deals Ive ever gotten...I think the majority of them were purchased during negative sentiment periods and overall negativity in the markets. So from an investor's POV, the negativity and fear some display on the forum ( which is also reflective of the wider society) are key ingredients and signals that some great opportunities will be ripe for the plucking, somewhere around Australia. So from that perspective, I make use of these signals.


I clearly remember pre last Syd and Melb booms the markets were extremely negative with the economic gurus predicting further slumps in RE values. It was around that time I decided everything was looking too sweet and dumped close to 4mil in Syd and Melb markets. Not too long after we had the mother of all booms.

I'm not saying we're gonna have booms soon because of all the negativity but I do believe there are going to be alot more fantastic buying opportunities around oz over the next 12-24 months.

I have always believed ..it is precisely because of fear and greed that we are able to profit and do well. When others are paralysed by fear, its time for action. And when greed takes over, its also time for action . Its just many ppl have it backwards as to what actions to take at these times.

This cycle will go on indefinitely as human nature never changes.

 

It was quite cold before. With global warming now its just cool.

 

This looks like a fun thread