NSW Sydney to keep growing

Lots of interesting tid bits in this article on the projected population growth of Sydney.

Which areas are going to be hammered, why some areas will have minimal population growth etc.

• Delving a little deeper - if transport is a constraint & population isn't going to grow is this advantageous?
• Where are new units going to accommodate this growth?
• Would you be supportive of the higher densities if it meant 200m2 blocks in the 'burbs?
• Should we sit tight & wait until new LEPs reveal the higher density areas or get in and buy up in these areas now?
• Are there any morsels that you've pick up?

@Jennifer Duke - any comments on the social impacts, our changing demographic?

 

Some of the TOD planning seems to be generally accepted best practice with proposals to significantly increase density around (and perhaps on top) of the new Norwest rail stations etc. I assume the other new transit infrastructure they're putting in elsewhere will have similar planning.

Nice article- I like the barcelona vs the shanghai paths-

 

Hey! Sorry have been off the forum for a while.

Having listened to Planning Minister Rob Stokes this morning, I'd say their idea to spread density out to all of Sydney (as opposed to forcing it within certain areas) seems like a fair approach and a necessary one.

We just put this piece together about it: Sydneysiders need a new realistic Great Australian Dream

Depending on your investment timeline, I'd imagine the majority of Sydney will soon be open up to terrace development... my main fear is the loss of lifestyle that will inevitably come as a result. It's already congested even in the far-western 'burbs where I'm located. But that's just a reality of population growth it seems.

I can't be the only one who thinks this will be an affordability-driven population growth scenario. Most people who move into Sydney cannot afford to buy into the heavily gentrified/well-heeled areas so to speak and will look out west (and for smaller homes). Parramatta is obviously at the heart of this strategy, but increasingly Penrith and Wollongong will be following in its footsteps. Already I'm hearing a lootttt of positive things about spending $$ on Penrith investment properties.

Badgerys Creek is also a no-brainer as a game changer over the next 20 years.

 

@Jennifer Duke - I note the change in affordability from 4x avg salary to 12x over the period. Has anyone factored in or considered the difference in the quality of the stock at those price levels? Ie what will a 40+ year old 10 square 2 bedroom house/1 bath/off street parking cost toay in fhb territory?

Oh.. They don't exist - expectations are 3/2/2 as entry level.

 

I'm so sick of these arguments about the "high expectations" of FHB. They expect a similar standard to what their parents started with. When they can't afford an apartment in the same area their parents very easily purchased a house (i.e. on one basic income), their criticisms of affordability are real and valid.

 

You only have to look further abroad to see that Sydney will inevitably head further down the higher density path. The projections for pop growth cant be all supported by large lot housing. I came across this article the other day which is similar to yours Jennifer

http://www.knightfrankblog.com/global-briefing/in-focus/the-new-great-australian-dream/

 

My ppor is on over 1000sqm. Easy walk to excellent train station... hehehe
#neversell

 

<hype>
Yes, it's called Brisbane
<\hype>

 

I can't understand why gen Y/Z have chips on both shoulders. They should be able to afford this but within walking distance of the Sydney cbd.

 

I think there is an affordability issue for those on lower incomes.

Higher income FHBs can most certainly afford to buy somewhere (a couple on 80k plus each - above average for those in 20s - who don't choose to rent in the pricey end of town).

We have our 3-bed 1-bath house, but bought in the "deep west" of Syd (Mt Druitt) prior to the boom...

 

Interesting articles.

As an exercise the wife & I drove around the two of the major developments around Penrith where we live, Jordan Springs & Mulgoa Rise. We were quite surprised that in both areas terraces where being built.

We haven't seen terraces built on such a grand scale in some time, the high density has usually been flats.

 

There's a reason that you don't see any 2/1/1 getting built, it's because the affordability issue is largely a question of land prices and not construction costs. Which is a drastic change from 20-30 years ago.

If anything we have seen a major downsizing in average block sizes, so I don't think its fair to say people haven't compromised.

Too me terraces & townhouses definitely aren't the answer, they have too many negatives. Allow a small % of them for diversity and have them act as a buffer between medium/high density apartment and regular housing maybe.

It's pretty apparent that in order to not interfere with and to preserve the greatest number of stand alone houses it makes more sense to build to a higher density around major transport infrastructure, CBD's, etc.
The focus should be on doing apartments developments well. Allow their higher density to leave further room for parks and other open space and their higher demand create more activation and services.

Unfortunately the path we are heading down at the moment is one of just cramming more and more people in, and we are making the people in the west take the greatest burden, without change their lives are going to be miserable in 10 years time. That's why its important we act now and spread the burden, so all of our lives can be miserable too.

 

@bumskins - Not all inner ring suburbs have suffered equally at the hands of government. The grand old homes on the north shore along the Pacific Highway/Mona Vale Rd up to Hornsby/Waitara have been decimated by density policy whereas the inner east/west have redeveloped upon brownfield industrial sites (Waterloo/Botany/Green Square or Summer Hill/Lewisham, or Rhodes/Homebush Bay). Other areas like southwest (Wiley Park/Punchbowl/Lakemba) are unaffected even though they all have a rail line.

Other low density suburbs have taken their fair share of medium density but similar to the brownfield areas have been in/adjacent to the cbd eg. Dulwich Hill/Ashfield to Homebush and further west to Guildford/Granville.

With the exception of the north shore, transport options have increased with light rail, metro or road infrastructure upgrades. Northconnex and Northwest metro largely miss these areas in the north but improve accessibility for the areas further west.

 

The sooner we adopt Melbourne's medium density planning schemes the sooner we find affordable housing.. Look at north and west of Melb, anything over 500sqm is being turned into 2-3 townhouses. Best way to do it imo.

 

exactly

a household income of 150-180k (3/4 of it being the male) still struggles to get anything decent in the market for a family unless its further out. if you work in the CBD and don't want a 1 hour commute you have to get either an apartment or a tiny dump that is ready to be knocked down, oh and you're leveraged up to your eyeballs with an 800-900k loan

and this only applies to sydney, any other capital city in Australia you can get a good to great place within a 30 min commute to the CBD

 

If you think Sydney is bad, have a look at the cramp living styles of people in other major cities like NYC, London, HK, Singapore, Tokyo. Do people there complain about living spaces ?
I can't see Sydney getting cheaper, so it's here to stay.

 

You'll also find 100% of Thornton Estate - which is dead centre of Penrith CBD, is medium or high density. The only "houses" in the estate are terraces and dual occ. The rest of the estate is high density apartments.

 

Oh yes I forgot Thornton!! - we drove around that on our way to JS. Multi terraces and HD housing in arcs around a centre green space with a multi story flat complex almost directly opposite the rail station. Driving in and out of the little streets felt a lot like Newtown!

 

There are 3 large apartment developments in Thornton - 2 being built by St Hilliers and 1 by Payce . Each holds @ 260 apartments, so a total of @ 780 give or take.

 

The reason land lots in the North West and other parts of Sydney are going for crazy prices. Thanks @Jennifer Duke

End of Sydney sprawl in sight, so what's next?