Sydney to grow by the size of Brisbane over next 20 years

Interesting article in today's SMH predicts massive population growth (of 2.1M people) over the next two decades - largely in the Hills, Liverpool and Blacktown areas.

The image from that article below depicts the future high population growth areas.

Does relatively soft population growth (and thus infrastructure spend) in established areas such as the North Shore and eastern suburbs suggest that prices will be somewhat constrained in these parts? Would the smart money be going to the burgeoning west?

Does anyone have any other interesting views/takeaways from this?





I'm in two minds: While I hopefully benefit from my investments out west, but am a little concerned that my IPs will be worth more than my PPOR in the not too distant future!

 

All I can do is smile and node

 

If Brisbane was not growing at all, I might have said maybe...
Given that Brisbane is growing quickly, as is sydney in the areas mentioned, but unlikely significantly faster if at all faster, then the answer is a sure no- in the next 10 years at least. What happens 10-20 years out, who knows- ill likely win at the blackjack tables and buy a million dollar listing in NYC.

 

Quality of life will exceed financial consideration when this happens.

 

Sydney is so unbearable in recent years. You can not get to places on a weekend, especially on Sat where the traffic is worst then weekdays. I occasionally could not get into train at Central station because I simply can not get in with overcrowded trains... Recently, they have a staff manning every train door exit during peak hours...
Yesterday, there was a Chocolate festival at Circular Quay/The Rocks...it was packed.
#Sydneyisovercrowded
#movethemtoBrisbanePerth

 

Transport in the North of Brisbane is not any better than Sydney. Even with the new railway line running off to Redcliffe, I don't think there's going to be any improvements. However, down south is a different story.
But like RetireRich101 says, quality of life and quick access to popular beaches and parks will be much better in Brisbane even with overcrowding.

 

It took me 40 mins to go from Homebush to Wentworthville last Sat at 4:30 pm. It is just 15Kms apart.

 

1.50 from north arm cove to Sydney ( Turramurra this morning ) Hexham bypass will bring it down to 1.30 which is a good time for commuting from the West to CBD .

EVERYONE BUY IN North Arm Cove !!!

Actually don't . I want it to stay peaceful and quiet with no riffraff....

Cliff

 

There is a lot of infrastructure happening in Sydney at the moment but just not quick enough. The westconnex, m4 upgrade is on full ball. The light rail project they started the work Surry Hills last week, while George st cbd and Randwick/Kingsford are underway..

 

Did you try a google maps route?

 

I've been living in Homebush for last six years and lived in Wendy area for five years. Please don't insult me

 

Sometimes google maps is good cause it may just come up with an out of the box solution... it knows about traffic jams....

 

The forecast population growth is also a key driver of our housing markets so no massive price drops coming our way anytime soon... if anything it's the opposite out there.
But the traffic is a killer and getting worse... seriously does my head in sometimes and I cannot wait for the North Connex. Pennant Hills Rd is my nemesis when it comes to roads

 

I saw this article & thought: how can the Sydney population increase by 2.1 million in only 20 years?

That's more than 100,000 per annum, which is basically impossible given the projected -ve net interstate migration from NSW.

Going back to the source data, the reason is the start date for their 'projection' is 2011, which is half a decade ago.

The actual estimate from 2016 to 2036 according to the Planning NSW data is Sydney's population going from 4,681,950 to 6,421,850, an increase of 1,739,900.

1,739,900 / 20 years = 86,995 per annum, which is more realistic and more or less in line with present absolute growth rates.

I put the full 2011-2036 data series in a graphic here:



As an aside the total projected 20 year increase for regional NSW is 437,650 / 20 years = 21,882 per annum.

 

Google knows everything.

 

Sure does. "Google is your friend"... I even mentioned this in a presentation I did on report development late last week. The answers are all there...

 

Hi Pete,

Long time follower of your blog.

Do you reckon this dataset is accurate for Brisbane?
Data Tables: Projected population (medium series), by statistical area level 2 (SA2), SA3 and SA4, Queensland, 2011 to 2036 (OESR, Queensland Treasury)

 

Im happy for the traffic and other factors to go a little nuts if it means the property markets are booming and wealth is building. Because the reality is i won't be worried about traffic as illl be too busy enjoying the benefits of the wealth.

 

Does make you question the sensibility of building light rail with such high predicted growth rates.
I think light rail will be seen to be a very poor decision in the long run. Should be metro, and if you can't justify metro, then run bus's until you can.

 

Geeze, happy to get out of there.
Central, Town Hall and Wynyard are already bad enough.