NSW Sydney prices - stupid crazy from two years ago ....

Seech, I feel funny, on the other thread you want to hype it. And this sound like you bit scare with the performance. Which way you want?

Dont worry about money, they will flow from non-knowledgeable people to the other side.

We stop looking Sydney since mis 2013, and keep reval and re-invest in Brisbane and Adelaide. I still remember back in Somersoft, people questioning that.

At the end, I dont mind if Sydney still going up or will flat/crash. But agree if this circumtances will hurt newbie investor the most. People who bought near the top will may have to wait longer to aim same return

 

We are all happy Sydney's been stupidly crazy. We knew it was going to rise, but not by this much!

Whhhhaaaaatttt!! Why say the c word??? Why would you not care if it c....???

 

Yeah, the rest of aussie real estate will also be affected if our engine room, sydney, goes down. Fortunately ,looks like it won't crash, small correction yes, but no crash.

 

Hi Zach

Here is the opening post from the original " let's hype " thread on somersoft which this is a continuation of

This thread is an observation of what has happened , in particular how what was considered crazy only two years ago would now be consider d a bargain .

Aim of this was to give an insight on how quickly perceptions will change . Once you've seen it happen , it makes it easier to know what is going to happen in the future .

Btw , I sold last December .

Cliff


http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=101730

I've been accused of being bullish , trying to hype or spruik the sydney market .

However confident I am in my own abilities ( believe me I'm not that confident , those on the forum who know me , know I'm a relatively quiet person ) I don't think I can do that ..

However rather than have people drip feed criticisms against me when ever I " report " an article that it is positive about the Sydney market I will post it here .

I have noticed there is another poster , Richard Feynman , who has been equally guilty as I have , so I've put his name up in the title as well . RF , I hope that's ok with you .

Disclaimer . I own several properties in sydney and at some stage will be selling one while keeping the other five.

As a buy and hold investment , at the moment I would not be buying in sydney

The first three articles have been posted elsewhere .

I will report the APM clearance rates . They consistently report higher levels so in the interest of a balanced approach I'll use them

Clearance rate over 80 % for four weeks

Strongest winter market since GFC

Buyers ignore RBA warning

My agenda is I'm watching the Sydney market closely so I can gauge the best time to sell .

Cliff

 

Maybe , but in the last cycles exactly the same thing happened and we didn't have the same group being accused of buying everything available .

Cliff

 

Yes it will , but not in the way you imply .

If there was another GFC , then that would affect everywhere , HOWEVER , if it's just a matter of Sydney slowing down because prices are perceived to be too high and returns too low , all those people who made money is Sydney and all those who missed out will look for somewhere else to buy .

Oops ... They've already started that .

Cliff

 

That group was doing the same thing last cycle in Singapore, Malaysia etc...that's where that money went. It's slowed down there a bit now because both their banks and govt had progressively implemented controls to deter this stuff...

 

Yes , really . I said 2-3 years ago that I expected 2770 to double , and it's just about there .

IMHO , all the cheapies in Brisbane will do the same in the next years . They've done it in previous cycles and I see no reason why it won't do it in this cycle .

Cliff

 

Just a FYI... not every asian looking person in Sydney is a front for an overseas chinese investor. There are property investors from all nationalities at meetups, and the chances of it being a local hard working citizen buying an IP is far higher than it being a chinese overseas investor.

 

In 12-18 months we will look back at how "cheap" Sydney was today, I reckon.

"Remember the time before the $1mil median"?

 

Yeah, same as my house. We bought for just under 700k in 2008 and I did these projections on a spreadsheet if the house price went up say 5%/6%/7% a year, how long would it be till its more than a million?

Back then I couldn't really imagine it being more than a million, it sounded like such a big number. Now it has well and truly smashed that and some houses in my suburb are going for more than 2 million.

And 2br units are now attracting about the same price as the purchase price of my 3br house which is on nearly 800sqm with 2 living rooms, 2 bathrooms. I'm not complaining...

 

Of course what you said above is true ie many nationalities with legit dollars .
And it's not really' fronts'. It's more like transferring money to kids family etc to buyas they are perm residents, and they are not really 'fronts'..but I know what you mean...

 

So Cliff, officially Sydney hype is over? Just kidding.. I did see Steven's Brisbane hype thread. Need Hobo Jo to hype Adelaide, or maybe not !!
And I start to research ACT now..

@Gockie , for me personally "dont mind" because I have boring investment plan, buffer that work regardless. I think that much better to focus instead worrying what Sydney will be. I agree that knowing what next will help you prepare. But my action after is more important.

So if Syd still going up, we keep draw equity and buy elsewhere. If the market flat, no worries as all my Syd portfolio cashflow positive. If the market down/crash, no worries as I have cash buffer and can draw equity from Bris/ other state portfolio. "Crash" is not taboo, not having plan and buffer will lead to disaster

 

If I say a crash is when properties prices go down by something like 30%, would you not care? I certainly would....

 

@Gockie even 70% from current price still okay for me.. even if rates go up to 12% still okay for me..

PS : yea its un-likely but I never know

 

.....und zee peak ist reached

 

What is it about this boom that's making the media freak out more than previous booms?

 

Sensational news headlines sell newspapers. Mainstream news will lament or promote housing bubbles/busts on the drop of a hat if it sells

 

News cycle is quicker than last time, also no facebook back then. Every time one of the news agencies puts up a property post on fb the doom and gloom brigade pile in. Its fun to read lol.

 

Seriously grandad ... You could buy a property in Sydney for one mil !!!

I've just made an offer for 5 mill for a 1 bedded in marrackville . What would that have sold for when you were my age ?