Sydney home prices now falling $120,000 a year

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Pete Arendt, 24th Jan, 2019.

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  1. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    @TheSackedWiggle , no one said his opinion doesn't matter and I don't know if he's a perma bear or not as he doesn't seem to have an opinion only posting links which is fine. I actually get my dose of permabear and daily economic Armagedon news from Macrobusiness

    You must have missed on a lot of good threads from many of the brokers in regards to post APRA credit crunch and serviceability... I don't recall anyone putting a specific figure to the size of the downturn percentage wise but many was expecting it for years now.

    Anyways, to each their own :)
     
  2. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    Of course ...so long it is also nothing :)
     
  3. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    But debt is less than nothing, is it not? :p
     
  4. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Look this is very exciting. 120K per annum is a fair whack to lose. It has been mentioned that this will eventually cause house values to be worth zip.

    But I reckon in Mt Druitt houses will have a negative value. So in effect you see a house you like, it's yours and you pick up, say, 100K (negotiable).

    There will be no stamp duty or conveyancing costs ( nobody will give a rats if there's a problem with the property).

    Call me an idiot, but doesn't this negative news sound like the best thing since slice and vacuum sealed salami became readily available in the deli area of your local supermarket ?
     
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  5. BuyersAgent

    BuyersAgent Well-Known Member Business Member

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    Idiot.
     
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  6. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    I couldn’t disagree with this more.

    Most of this forum mocked the bears up until 6months ago.

    Even look at the polls put up here. When they first went up 75% of respondents were bullish. They have only now turned the other way since it’s blatently clear.

    6-18 months ago I was in constant arguments with people about my believe the market would go down 10-15%. People made fun of that. Now it looks I was also wrong. It will probably be 15-25%.

    Until recently the standard comment was that Sydney and Melbourne would just be flat for a couple of years but migration would keep prices up. With apartments having some pullback.
     
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  7. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I agree even back on somersoft I used to see that people who were negative about the market used to get ganged up on. I think it's important that there's a variety of views
     
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  8. PandS

    PandS Well-Known Member

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    I think it is important to let who ever post regardless of their agenda, we all have some sort of agenda and generate discussion, as long as it is not a scam, fraud or spruking stuff, I think it dangerous when you start gang up on people who has opposite view or overly negative on your asset
     
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  9. paulF

    paulF Well-Known Member

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    @mues ,you are correct. I reviewed some old threads and it seems that most were actually bullish on Sydney as in predicting most falls to be around 5-10% over the few coming years.

    I think i was conflating market falls with being ready to capitulate on those falls since i recall many posters stating being cashed up and waiting to buy some bargains when the time is right.

    As for the % of falls, my issue with that has always been that Sydney just like any other city or state has way too many markets and those generalized numbers like 15% don't give a clear idea on what is actually happening in a suburb or an area for example.
     
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  10. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    What a lot of people don't realise is that there are several forums out there which are full of disillusioned first-home-buyers who resent property investors and feel that we are the scum of the earth for driving up the price of real estate and making it so that they cannot afford to buy a house.

    Some of these sites have actively run campaigns to send trolls to our site and deliberately cause reactions - I've seen the threads where they laugh at the reactions they get! This also happens on Twitter and other social media platforms too.

    Trolling property investors is a fun passtime for some people because it is so easy to do.

    I have spent many years fighting troll-like behaviour across both Somersoft and PropertyChat and have developed a set of policies to manage it.

    There is a huge difference between being negative and trolling.

    You can be negative towards the property market because you see that it offers no value in the short term - but still be of the belief that property investing is a sound way to create wealth.

    However - as I have previously stated, if your fundamental belief is that real estate is either never going to work as an investment strategy - or else you believe that property investors make it too difficult for "the average person" to achieve their fundamental right to own their own home - then posting on a site about property investing is not adding value.

    The basic premise of this site's existence is that property investing is A) a good way to invest and that B) you can - despite market fluctuations (or even because of them!), make money by investing in real estate.

    If you do not believe either of these things to be true, then you cannot add value to this site and shouldn't be here.
     
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  11. Francesco

    Francesco Well-Known Member

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    Is there a case that this situation is being played out:

    Posters/lurkers who have a philosophy against property investors essentially exploit liberal processes in the forum to extract useful information and to contribute disingenuous fake news, with the ultimate aim of sabotaging property investors, including this forum.
     
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  12. hash_investor

    hash_investor Well-Known Member

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    links :p
     
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  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    What I have observed over the years is that generally when markets correct, the investors who understand RE well and believe in the asset class as a long term wealth creation tool are the ones who remain excited, optimistic and prepare to be able to realise some great value and opportunities in the coming future. Then you have the other folks who just like to post and yell out as much as they can the negative news with the main intent being just to yell it out for their own agenda which has little to do with investing and building wealth. Its very easy to differentiate to two. One is intrinsically pessimistic while the other is cautiously optimistic.


    And with regards to the title of this thread, its complete nonsense and utterly misleading.
     
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  14. Beano

    Beano Well-Known Member

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    Negative value of property
    Don't we get a negative stamp duty ?
    :)
     
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  15. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Don't feed the trolls :p
     
  16. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    Excitement, optimistic, negativity are emotional terms. My mantra is to crunch the numbers, if they add up, I move, if they don't, track their direction and prepare accordingly :)
     
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  17. kierank

    kierank Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the thread title of “Sydney home prices now falling $120,000 a year” made me laugh.

    My share portfolio dropped more than $120,000 in October last year.

    That was in a month, not over a year :eek:.
     
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  18. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Can constant reposting of negative articles without offering an opinion be counted as "a view"? You could program a bot to do that. I don't see how it adds value to a property forum.
     
  19. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    You got a bigger pain tolerance than me... if I saw a paper loss of 120k in a month.... o_O My investment psychology is a lot more comfortable with RE than stocks overall..
     
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  20. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    You can't deny that property investors drive up prices, one of many factors, but they definitely do. Put yourself in the shoes of Gen Y, even with a great education and good salary, owning a nice home in a nice suburb in syd or mel is very hard. Couple decades ago, if u were a skilled professional you would have had no trouble
     
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