NSW Sydney entering positive territory

Same as December where RE was showing 38%
So assuming same ****

This **** is better than the **** 1 months ago.

 

could get 100% clearance rate if every vendor slash price by 40% next week. Any evidence of prices rebounding? I'm seeing pass ins on properties discounted at 10-20% yoy.

 

I'm on the ground in Sydney looking for a friend. January has more action than November/December.

Means nothing but still better than it was.

2 Sydney Eastern suburbs agents I meet almost weekly said same thing.

 

What you are seeing is lagging indicators if the market stabilisation was happening now(Syd) you would not see it now.



You know this .

So let's wait and see.

 

So if the vendors have adjusted to new prices. Would this not be the stabilisation of the market.
Supply meets demand.

 

Hmm 61% preliminary reported on domain with a large volume of sales vs early 40s in December 2018.
RC over with no real short term impact on lending.
Loans getting faster and easier to obtain.
General sentiment change (anectodal), surge in buyers trying to buy pre election.
Prices 10-15% down already.
Unemployment lowest on record (very hard to have a crash in this climate)

I’ve seen enough, IMO this current 18 month period of falling Sydney house prices is now over. Buyers are now paying a little bit more today than December 2018 (sellers really motivated), the trough in prices.

Will need data to come out in a couple months to confirm the above, but all the lead indicators are telling the same story.

None of this means Sydney is a great place to invest now...it just means house price data will go into green territory once current transaction settlement data feeds through.

 

In areas I look at around western Sydney I haven’t been seeing falls or substantial discounting for a while. Seems there is the odd quick sale where something sells cheap but generally provided a vendor is realistic and not living in the past the properties seem to be selling.

I am actually putting a property to auction in the inner city in a month or so, that will be a good test. Auction results in that area today were pretty good though, everything sold.

 

Did you guys miss the 60% unreported rate?

That is not typical. 50% unreported last week was already insane and abnormal. This is a drastic increase in unreported. Do you think those unreported auctions are successful or unsuccessful auctions?

All that matters is number of auctions and number of sold at auction. Those are the figures that cannot be manipulated by agents.

For Sydney: 747 auctions scheduled, 217 sold

 

I don’t need a report. I get my data the old fashioned way talking to people.

 

Unreported means agent did not give the result of the auction. It's not a report.

Talking to people isn't data it's anecdotal, useful if you want a small sample of opinions/agendas and not facts

 

Wouldn’t that information go into forming a report?

 

It could. And letters could be used to write reports. And pencils could be used to write letters--

That's semantics, the use of the word report in this case is in the sense of agent reporting or not reporting the result as failed or successful. Semantics, opinions, feelings are one thing, but the two numbers agents can't control:

747 auctions, 217 (29%) sold

 

Yeah. anything over 60% is supposed to indicate prices rising. Anything under 50% indicates prices falling and 50% is supposed to be flat. So you should start seeing prices rise in Sydney. Some sources like Louis Christopher reckon it's just seasonal. There's been a financial uptick globally in january. China saw record amount of financing in january as PBoC injected massive stimulus again like it's done every january for the last several years. However this time they injected a record amount of stimulus because everything was crashing in 2018 and they've recently vowed to have no intention of flooding the market with credit but instead only intend to keep markets stable.

I remember in Feb last year there was an uptick with local auction prices hitting record highs for my segment then by march everything was declining. So it's not unreasonable to believe things are stabilising/rising again nor is it unreasonable to believe it's just a seasonal uptick.

 

Anecdotal evidence shows more action. But could just be a dead cat bouce with those locked out of the market stepping in. Same in Melbourne.

Still safe to wait a bit to invest. If you want PPOR worth trying to cut a weak one off the pack if you are in a strong financial position.

However, for the next year at least. Time is on the buyers side.

 

I dont know where you folks are getting your 'reported results' figures from, but they are off (or, have been updated). According to this report:

'Like the old days': Sydney dumps draw strong crowds on first bumper auction weekend in 2019

There were 660 scheduled, and 348 reported (SO FAR! It is unfair to get to 5pm - same day - and start hypothesising that agents didnt report them! Saturday is their busiest day of week and they probably don't get time until the evening to do that admin..).

So, based on figures above and at 61% of (sydney) reported auctions selling; no matter how you slice these numbers, it is a vast improvement on not only the previous two weeks (first two auction weeks of 2019), but also a big improvement on Nov/Dec.

Yes we are still in a downswing market but all things considered, one must accept that today was a (comparably) gpod week in Sydney.

 

Buy buy buy that’s what the REA and sellers will say... just hold.... wait for labor to win... and prices will go down further...

Ppl buying now will miss out on more savings... years of little to no growth ahead ...

We had tasters qtr decline last qtr but some ppl just want u to see stupid data...

 

That’s not a report. It’s an article on domain (a real estate company), siting anecdotes from RE agents.

Auction clearance results are always reported Saturday afternoon, then revised Thursday. Unreported rates are through the roof, not a theory.

 

To add to the uncertainty: Louis Christopher on Twitter

 

I wish all the bedt, keep us posted

 

Not so positive take from domain of all pseudo news rags: Performance anxiety grips Sydney's prestige market in the comedown from last year's high-end bonanza