NSW Sydney..down turn is beginning..2018-2019 will present opportunities..

Yes, the inner ring of Melbourne is what I was referring to - it's certainly well stocked. The oversupply will, in time be absorbed and in 5-10 years time it will move to an under-supplied market because Melbourne has a lot of population growth drivers - but right now you have two issues there; chronic oversupply of apartments and appallingly low rental yields. You would struggle to get a new Melbourne 1 or 2 bed inner city apartment to CF neutral even with rates at 4% and with all the benefits of new build depreciation. But if you can take a 10 year view of Melbourne's apartments, they should show long term value as they are literally half the price of Sydney's apartments. I mean, imagine being able to purchase a brand new 2 bedder in Newtown, Glebe, Surry Hills, Redfern etc for 500-550K . That's what can be had in Footscray, Brunswick, Carlton, Richmond etc right now.
Just quietly - this type of oversupply and tumbling rental yield is what inner Brisbane can look forward to in the not too distant future as well...but with less than half Melbourne's population to absorb it.

 

@JDP1 and @Leo2413 yes that does make sense after all.
thanks mate.

 

Yeah,.. I just don't know anyone who has many OTP stuff and was able to do very well. I'm sure there are the exceptions.. i just wouldn't want to be banking on an 'exceptions' path myself.

 

So remember this property that was on the news... (50 Braemont avenue, Kellyville Ridge)
http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...orth-1-million-in-sydney-20150727-gikesc.html

Just heard it's under contract for 910K..

 

Yes, I guess OTP is good if you know when to exit before the price plummet or before it hits the oversupplied market.

 

From the Fairfax Press:

Postcodes in NSW that banks should be wary about include Blackville, Caroona, Colly Blue, Pine Ridge, Quirindi, Spring Ridge and Wallabadah (2343) in the state's north-west and Greta in the Hunter (2334). "The slowing of new resources projects in the Hunter is a driver," he said. He also pointed to Riverstone (2765), Mount Annan (2567), Auburn (2144), Blaxland (2774), Chipping Norton (2170), Berala (2141) and Bass Hill (2197) as being the highest risk suburbs for defaults in Sydney.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...-watchlist-20150817-gj12o3.html#ixzz3j7TG0eUb

 

Riverstone is odd one out!! mostly FHB with H&L package property purchases.

 

@Chilliblue regarding Auburn NSW 2144, I've heard that it is one of the suburb in Sydney with lower income per week.

But somehow it is closer to Parramatta, it should get some ripple effect of capital gain. So how come it is a risky suburb to invest ?

3/2/1 apartment in Auburn cost about $599-650k so it is still cheap compare to the next suburb around it in this case Lidcombe.

 

Correct @Be Developer, it was offered to me since I was after Schofields & The Ponds earlier this year for a budget of $675k 3 bedroom single story H&L package.

However Marsden Park and Ropes Crossings is not listed there.

 

With suburbs adjoining Parramatta it will be interesting to see how the re devleopment on Camilla will effect them

 

No more anti NG noise?

 

Did any of them save anything though?

I'm sure some did, but jeez; I heard a lot of stories about jet skis, and O/S hols and new utes and so forth.

 

Low income equates to higher sensitivity to interest rate changes and lower serviceability. If owners are unable to service then banks won't lend. If one can't afford $1.5k in monthly repayments lending them an extra 200k and bringing the repayments up to $2.25k wouldn't make sense.

 

Along with the many others trying to do the same.

 

From my understanding- if it's been lived in they need to buy it under a company name and it to be for the purpose of their employees to live/rent out

 

It is a good suburb to invest in if you can get something for the right price.
There are lots of reasons why the bank might not think so right now though - such as unemployment and inexperience with loans.
It's not really one of the Parramatta suburbs.
Auburn was hot a few years ago and will be again.

 

Even though the Auburn is on the black list due to local price rising and local demographics/unemployment etc, the buyers for the last couple of years may not be local.

 

If the majority of Auburn purchasers obtain their funds like Mr mehajer then I can see the risks. On paper auburn looks like a low income area but I would say that the majority do not have standard methods of income generation.

 

That's why it's not so shooty at the moment, everyone putting their "cash" from certain sales into property, and doing pretty well from it.

 

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett
Basically it means that it is best to act opposite to the herd.