Sydney badgerys creek airport (Progress) which is good.

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Illusivedreams, 12th Oct, 2017.

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  1. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

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    Agree... Airport may push the property prices even lower in that area... Many residents near Sydney airport file thousands of complaints every year, many of them don't want to live there and often relocate due to constant noise, air pollution and traffic problems. At the same time it can lift the prices up as employees of airport tend to live closer to the airport... so the prices can go down, up or no effect. I doubt anyone knows that for sure. We'll see.
     
    Last edited: 20th Dec, 2017
  2. AlexV_Sydney

    AlexV_Sydney Well-Known Member

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    Price Depreciation.jpg
    from various international studies
    http://www.landmarkresearch.com/PDFs/AirportNoise.pdf

    As mentioned in that report, there is always segment of people who never live near airports or/and motorways.

    If buy close enough to the airport and not under flight corridors, effect would be near zero.

    The good thing for sure would be if the main airport reduces the traffic and noise, it would have positive impact for many suburbs like Leichhardt, St Peters, Wolli Creek, Marrickville, Sydenham, etc.
     
  3. bmc

    bmc Well-Known Member

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    exactly,
    work has been going on in the background for years. I surveyed (pegged) the preliminary location of the runway back in 1990.
    currently preparing road widening plans near elizabeth drive, northern road.

    it wont 'appin overnight but it will 'appin
     
  4. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Although the sites has. Been. Earmarked for the airport but it never had any commitment.

    Non their was no money no community support.

    This changed last year when governments yes s committed to building the airport.

    Now it' sstarting. What happed 20 years ago apart from land reservation is nothing.

    Unlike Kingsford Smith being in the. Middle of the city with residential right under flight path.

    Alot if Badgerys creek is a green field site. Have a look at the noise map provided. Flight path position.

    If you are buying make. Sure. You Buy in areas that reflect the maps minimum impact zones.

    This part of Western Sydney is changing daily. I work in the area and in the last 5 years I cant recognise certain areas.

    Time will tell. Although if you think this infrastructure will bring employment, infrastructure, housing growth opportunities you are. Deluding yourself.

    In 2027 you Will re read this thread and say **** why was I so negative. I. Missed opportunities but at this Point this is not Your First time.
     
  5. Trainee

    Trainee Well-Known Member

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    In 2027 ill be thinking im so glad i waited until 2022 to buy instead of 2017.
     
  6. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Maybe .
    If you bought 5 ach their a few years back you would have made 5 times your money.
    I have many clients who are selling their land to developers land banking at the moment.

    Some of them are still waiting as they know that every year they hold out the value is climbing.

    @Trainee you could be right. time will tell.

    My information is from the coal face. But it may not be right long term.
     
  7. eletronic_exp0430

    eletronic_exp0430 Well-Known Member

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    I also know a big developer that is land banking there. (He is actually one of my best mates I was in his bridal party at his wedding). His father just starting a huge unit complex in Parramatta and they are buying up pretty much anything worthwhile near the new airport.
     
  8. BoatArrival

    BoatArrival Well-Known Member

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    Northrop Grumman already has few hundred employees at Richmond RAAF airbase. It appears their service centre at Badgerys Creek will be about the same so I suppose impact at Badgerys Creek will be similar to today's Richmond. Looking at schools performance, doesn't look like there is much difference with any other Western Sydney suburb. So personally I'd never be PPOR there and as far as investment, I can certainly find a lot better opportunities than that.
     
  9. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    @BoatArrival

    Look I disagree that Richmond is a comparable site.Don't forget w are looking where Richmond will be in 10 years and where Badgerys will be in 10 years.
    My grounds for this are.
    Richmond has horrible infrastructure.
    Residents strongly against any development. Additional bridges and links were all fought by local community. Unlikely to get rail any time soon.

    Badgerys creek is greenfield site that will employ 10,000s of people.This is greater than whole of Richmond.
    Badgerys creek get rail eventually and will have good road infra as well as being not far from M4/M7/M5 .
    How is Richmond and Badgerys creek even a comparison? What is the Master plan for Richmond?

    Yes 500 people Northrop Grumman but they are just 1 one many in what is master planned defence precinct.
    Than private sector light industry,warehousing and heavy industry.

    We will see.
    2026 is 9 years away.

    I also didn't buy in Badgerys creek I have investments in more established surrounding areas with infrastructure already. I wish I bought in places like Leppington 5/10 years ago when my friends bough blocks. They are now semi retired. I was telling them years ago. This is not me too risky. They said ok.
     
  10. Ted Varrick

    Ted Varrick Well-Known Member

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  11. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    There's a bridge in Windsor which is contentious - the proposal is to redirect the road and new bridge through the town square - much better to amplify the existing Windsor bypass than to bisect Windsor Town Square.

    Last time that I looked, there was a station at Clarendon (opposite the RAAF Base) and the line terminates at East Richmond, so I don't know what you mean by not knowing when rail would be extended ton Richmond.

    Richmond has the problem that it floods (hence all the turf farms), gets fogged in more often (but so does KSA) and RAAF is reluctant to share its runways (but it's not an issue at Fairbairn or Townsville etc).
     
  12. DoStovo

    DoStovo Member

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    Illusivedreams, great thread.
    It is a massive infrastructure project, the largest Sydney has seen for a while. It will have a bigger effect on the West than the M7. And if you had bought vacant industrial or rural land with access to the M7 15 years ago, you would be doing well now.
    I know someone with a 7 acre property near Badgery's creek and it has gone up a lot (more than 5x in 10 years).
    I am kicking myself for not buying a farm there for 3m last year.
    The land value now being offered is comparable to vacant industrial land in St Mary's (around 700k/acre). I am not sure how much further it will go before anything is built. However, it doesn't appear stratospheric. It is hard to find anything listed now. Probably you would need to compete with developers and land bankers and pay 5-6m+ for 7.5 acres for anything not under the flight coridoor near BCA currently.

    I think people do not understand BCA yet. From my understanding, it is likely to have a baseload demand from KSA reaching capacity around 2025. Freight demand as someone above mentioned may also be significant. People who say it will have no demand from passengers do not understand that the baseload demand will come from the West and people who live in the area (the area serviced, western Sydney has a population of approx 2m). Whether or not there are self-driving cars by 2025, it is hard to believe people in the West will go to KSA in preference to BCA for flights. People living near KSA will use KSA. The rail link will be interesting.

    My estimate, and I could be completely wrong is that it will be about the scale of Adelaide airport from early on. The fact that the operators of Sydney Airport gave it a pass may be a blessing. I think it is possibly going to be different to Avalon as Tullamarine has not reached capacity constraints and Avalon was funded privately and unable to compete adequately with Tullamarine.

    So other than rural property around the area, what are other potential plays on development in this coridoor ?

    If anyone has any good links, please post.

    I found the following articles and comments helpful:
    2nd Sydney Airport Archives - Plane Talking
    South West Rail Link Extension Corridor | Transport for NSW
    https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/documents/2017/swrl-extension-map_0.pdf
     
  13. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    I think any large blocks (1 acre plus) between badgerys creek and Picton are a good bet. Liverpool and Camden council no longer have an appetite for large lots due to all the residential subdivisions happening and the population booming. People on acreage lots in Liverpool and Camden council areas are being bought out (cashed up) and shifting further out as they have no interest living on a 400m2 block. Prices are just going up and up.
     
  14. L3ha7

    L3ha7 Well-Known Member

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    I am unable to get flight path info, will email them.
     
  15. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    Maps and images
     
  16. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]


    You can see stage 1 proposed runway 2020s and stage 2 proposed runway 2050.
     
  17. Ed Barton

    Ed Barton Well-Known Member

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    Why does it take so long and cost so much when the Wagners can build and airport in Toowoomba for a fraction of the cost and time?
     
    Marg4000 likes this.
  18. Marg4000

    Marg4000 Well-Known Member

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    My thoughts exactly.

    From memory it took them around 18 months to be up and running.

    Certainly the new Sydney airport is much bigger, but that does not account for the long time frames.
    Marg
     
  19. L3ha7

    L3ha7 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks @Illusivedreams , will check in details after work. Curious to know if kingswood/penrith direct under the flight path or not.
     
  20. Illusivedreams

    Illusivedreams Well-Known Member

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    This is a precinct not just a paddock with a runway conversion.

    This will be a small city.

    Also now the high voltage power lines are being diverted underground.

    I do think the two projects are vastly different.

    Badgerys is a full size international airport in plan.

    What it will become remains to be seen.


    Lastly being in the Sydney catchment and government owned their is a lot of people to please .
    Some object some want so worried about environment..

    People in Blue mountains are even complaining .

    A lot of interests in a dense area.

    Think about Toowomba is farm paddocks.
    I attend firmest with an exhibitor their every year.

    Very low density area.