NSW Sydney 2020 "Megaboom"

RE agents deal in the 'present'- I have rarely met the "ground floor" RE agents (your average agent) with a strategic & long term view and understanding of the macro factors. They are tactically smart and respond to the daily & weekly factors affecting supply & demand and their commissions. Thats their limit. I wouldn't think they would understand the macro level supply & demand even if it landed on their heads..

Doing your research based on something that is coming out of agents who can't see past their noses and taking their cue for what is to eventuate in 12 months from now is akin to asking agents about long term weather patterns

This from today:

RBA tips housing supply shortfall


"....While the increase in supply has finally met the earlier increase in demand, demand will continue to grow given population growth but supply is going to decline. So there is quite likely to be a shortfall again in the foreseeable future," Dr Debelle said.

"The long lead times on higher-density construction mean the supply response is likely to be slow. The tight conditions on lending to developers may mean it is even more protracted. The growth in demand without a meaningful supply response will lead to a larger price response...."

 

For every winner there is a loser.

Recently I bought an upgraded PPOR for $1.4ish, I currently own both my 3bd unit and this new house at greater than 20%. I also have guaranteed rental for the unit due to club associations.

I am selling the unit (Southern Sydney, fully renovated) for hopefully around $675k even though it would be positively geared. $27500 rental income, $24000 interest, strata and council fees. 40% tax bracket.

Now I could be crazy, as I believe I will be losing out, but to me I do not want this additional stress at this time of uncertainty.
My approach is that it will free up some mental space, and allow me to look at other areas and markets to invest in, when some certainty returns not just locally but also globally. An extra $5000 cash a year is not worth the stress and management. Also an emotional attachment as my first PPOR, I would now have the option invest without emotion.

Either way, my loss may be another's gain.

 

Well, you have conveniently assumed that the agents that I have spoken to are "Average". this is no different to assuming that you are smarter than everyone else combined ))
The article you shared clearly says that "it is possible" that we could see a shortage. Also, that 2020 could be the lowest in terms of housing investment.

 

Lol, this one has to get the award for the week mate.

I reckon those average agents could still give me a better opinion that you could. As much as I am not a big fan of R.E agents at the moment, you have insulted the entire R.E.A fraternity with a single comment.

 

Agreed Jesse. I think recent experience confirms that property doesn't always go up. Most of us suffer from recency bias, and think that the most recent trend will continue. Ie people can't see turning points. Most on this blog expected many more years to the downside, but the property market bounced back very quickly.

In reality, the market will zig zag higher over time.

Regarding the rental crisis: I think Lindeman's point is that we are setting up the conditions now for a supply crunch in the future. You are right, a supply crunch is not what we are seeing right now.

 

Agree. Respect your views on market volatility.

 

Might be a wise move...I think in your instance you are being very carefu nutin wrong with that.

 

Mate it is not only units ...over supply of houses in some areas. very area dependent for the Sydney market.

What I find funny is most of the people posting have not seen too many cycles....

 

Speak of the devil ...

 

CBA are biggest idiots out there....seriously John.....some more informed content please?

 

Oh for the love of Pete, Sash. If you have an argument, make it.

 

Interesting article..
I am not sure how this works though..
We have a net population growth of approximately in 388k in the 12months to March. around 300k births are recorded in Australia every year (source: Births in Australia source data)
assuming that all migrants falls under the potential home buyer category from Day 1, we have 190k people moving here every year.
The article says we need 180k new dwellings every year to catch up with demand. Are we looking at a new phenomenon where Infacts are buying properties? Or am I missing some logic here?

 

RBS governor is back
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...economy-for-another-year-20191017-p531hr.html
Dr Debelle said while the bank was forecasting a further 7 per cent drop in housing investment over the next year there was "some risk" the fall could be larger. This would take at least one percentage point off overall GDP growth.

 

All he did was to post a newspaper article and you get your knickers in a knot.... I don’t know John from bar of soap but I enjoy reading his posts and think you might need to chill a little and perhaps resist the urge to shout people down who have a view different to yours.

The same article was posted in various threads this morning too.

 

OK so you luv Pete...I have not arguzments....Dats ... @datto the King of Druie might have maybe able to speak tongues.

 

I ain't shoutin' down peoples..... why would anyone listen to people who can't even keep their banking system up? Seriously..... John and some others have no originality they are sheep...

 

the forum ought to have a diverse ecosystem to keep the discussions flowing.. Too many bullying hyenas and it turns to crap. Too many sheep and it’s boring. I see a lot of diversity here and I love reading various threads owing to the very diverse opinion base.

I know your views are being unsupported with the current outlook and data but I still enjoy reading your / Euro’s and other forumites posts that challenge my own current “very bullish” outlook but hey let’s hear everyone out and debate the content , without head butting the poster !

 

Funniest thing on the internet today .

#ohtheirony

 

What if you luv a good bluey? I am ole skool...just like @datts from the Druie...

With all due seriousness...some of these people crying are the same who dished it.... Lets say it is karma.... I am one of these people who is exactly the same in real life as on the forum. Dems how to roll.....these same people will hide behind the veneer of the internet...but never be able to say anything to your face.

 

Yes that is grand isn't it?