NSW Sydney 2020 "Megaboom"

Don't know how big the boom will be, too difficult to predict but it's clear that all money in real estate must be tied up in Sydney and Mel.
Any other market is Australia is gambling.

 

Clearances hit 80pc even as listings double

The Sydney Megaboom has gotten off to a explosive start with clearance rates surging to 80% as the stock of the market doubles.

 

It would be more sensible if auction data available for same amount of houses. Now days clearance rate quite biased as most of them are not being reported...

 

Was passed in at $3m last week.

Apparently Vendor wants $3.2m!!!!

Was sold for $1.5m in 2018 before KDRB. Owner Build costs $900,000??? Not a bad profit in 2 years!

Albeit a nice house in a average location if it gets over $3m the Megaboom is definitely here.

Current median for a 4bdr in Ryde is. $1.5m.

17 Zola Avenue, Ryde, NSW 2112

Anyone else seeing OTT prices?

 

Yes sold $710K above the reserve of $8M, so for $8,710,000, I thought it wouldn't fetch $8M as no pool, what do I know?
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-castlecrag-132331698

 

Finally ended up selling for $3m!!!

 

Update in castle hill - expensive houses is still $3.5 Million but normal nice houses are now asking for $2 million+... crappy houses are asking for $1.5+

 

Strawmans a ‘megaboom’.

There is a world wide pandemic.

And Sydney property somehow.....

 

It can't just keep going up forever. Need a megacrash for there to be another megaboom

 

If syd and melb hit about 8m people each in a generation or so......

 

Can you give an example of crappy houses for $1.5+? Was following the market till recently and saw not so crappy houses selling for $1.35. Maybe so much changed in one month or we have a different definition what's crappy is...

 

36 Coolibah Street, Castle Hill, NSW 2154
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-castle+hill-134569342

I would consider this a crappy house. Just my personal breakdown. Castle hill is a big area and there are nice houses selling on the cheap but those ones are closer to the other suburbs rather than true ch. the coolinah house is close to towers so I can see why it is $1.5

14 Banks Road, Castle Hill, NSW 2154
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-castle+hill-125020414
106 Tuckwell Road, Castle Hill, NSW 2154
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-castle+hill-131461782
These are super nice houses.

7 Gardenia Place, Castle Hill, NSW 2154
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-castle+hill-134804554
This is a normal house.

the market has moved recently so will update next year on where it is

 

Anyone have an idea where inner Sydney (5km radius considering areas around Surry Hills, Glebe/Annandale, Lilyfield, North Sydney) is on the property clock cycle, if such a cycle still makes sense? The prices seem to have come off the all time highs somewhat. When would the experts be looking to get in to these areas?

 

There is a mini crash each year in the purchasing power of your dollar. Prices can most certainly rise forever, in fact the price rise usually balances out the purchasing power fall.

South east Queensland property hasn’t risen in price for ten years (prior to COVID), yet at the same time the purchasing power of the property’s cash value has crashed approximately 30% - 40% (10 x 3% - 4% inflation per year). Are these conditions ripe for a boom or a crash?

 

I thought the same thing 15 years ago when I bought my first house and the market had just had a strong run. 15 years later I am still to see a single mega crash but have seen a number of mega booms.

 

With this attitude, one will never do anything and be impotent with fear. Jump in, don't overpay, roll with the punches and take a LONG TERM VIEW.

 

The one for $1.5 achieved it for the good location as you mentioned yourself.
Plenty of houses (crappy and not) sold recently for less than $1.4:
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/...-1?includeSurrounding=false&source=refinement

I don't see any "megaboom" happening in CH. On the other hand Baulkham Hill is booming and almost catching up in prices with CH.

Just my 2c.

 

Yes, based on fundamentals we have one of the world's largest housing bubbles. Debt to income levels show we would have a significantly larger housing collapse than the USA did during the GFC or Ireland for that matter.

And there lies the problem. What you are missing is property is government & RBA guaranteed in Australia. During the COVID pandemic the RBA wanted to shut down the housing market (i.e. no sales) so there was no price discovery. This was never considered for the Stock Market.

The government and RBA knows the consequences and will do everything in it's powers to keep housing surging along.

A lot of experts are now suggesting, based on current interest rates, property will double every 4 years.

And if it doesn't, the RBA is on hand to:
Property Expert predicts negative interest rates for Australian Mortgage Borrowers
Banks paying people to have mortgages will be a game changer. And its only a year away!

 

This is a really important insight.

Everyone thinks that eventually asset price increases will tap out. No, there is no limit to the upside of asset prices, because there is no limit to the amount of value our currency can lose. If you want a sure fire bet for 2021: there will be stimulus, there will be inflation, there will be currency debasement. If you take a bet to be on the other side of this trade, you will be fine.

 

Not directly related to real estate alone (talks stocks, gold etc) but I really like this interview with David hunter where he talks about cycles and what we are in for

He expects a 12 month period of deflation before stimulus makes its way through, where we eventually end up with double digit inflation during the mid part of the decade.

If he’s right, it’s going to be a scary time short term. But also the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes.